WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is estimated at 104.3 million tons, its highest level since 1992/93, but well below historical highs. U.S. exports are facing intensifying competition from Australia, with its record crop, and aggressive selling by the EU, Canada, and Argentina, also with big exportable surpluses. Global production is down and consumption is up this year, which would suggest tightening supplies. However, any upward pressure on prices is mitigated by large stocks, particularly in exporting countries.
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have stagnated at near-decade lows. In early March, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $110 per ton for nearby shipment, compared to $120 per ton a year ago. World wheat trade is little changed this month, with higher imports by Mexico, the Philippines, and Russia offset by smaller Egyptian and Pakistani imports.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
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