WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 104.2 million tons. Trade in recent years has been relatively flat despite wide price fluctuations. U.S. exports are facing intensifying competition from Canada, Argentina, and Australia due to near-record harvests. Global production is down, owing to smaller crops in several key importing countries, as well as the United States and the European Union. Global consumption is up for the fifth year in a row and exceeds production. Consequently, ending stocks will be drawn down, particularly among importers. However, stocks in the major exporting countries will remain large, limiting any price increase.
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have stagnated at near-decade lows. In early February, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $110 per ton for nearby shipment, compared to $125 per ton a year ago. World wheat trade is little changed this month as higher Russian and Ukrainian imports offset lower imports by Egypt, Morocco, and South Korea.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
Download the wheat tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Lotus Spreadsheet Format
Return to Table of Contents