SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade in 2000 is forecast to drop as weaker Asian
imports more than offset greater imports by the Middle East and
Latin America. U.S. exports are expected to increase 9 percent as
a result of record supplies and lower prices. Global prices,
which declined in 1999, will be further pressured by large
supplies in nearly all exporting countries. Global production,
consumption and ending stocks are all projected to climb to
record levels in 1999/2000, largely due to increases in China,
the world’s largest producer, although bumper harvests in
1999/2000 are also projected for Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia,
Burma, Bangladesh, India and the Philippines.
Thai export prices for high quality rice continued to rise
over the past month. Still, there is little expectation of price
strength throughout the year due to lackluster world demand and
expected bumper harvests in many Asian countries in early 2000.
U.S. rice export prices have remained unchanged since early
January.
2000 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- Thailand rice exports down 500,000 tons
to 5.5 million based on weaker forecast import needs
worldwide and the slow pace of exports early in the year.
- Vietnam down 300,000 tons to 4.0 million
due to expected smaller import demand in 2000.
Selected Importers
- Indonesia import down 1 million tons to
2 million because of adequate domestic supplies and due
to import tariff restrictions.
- Philippines down 400,000 tons to 500,000
based on greater expected production and larger carryin
stock levels.
- Brazil down 100,000 tons to 1 million
due to greater expected production.
- Africa regional imports up 370,000 tons
to 4.7 million based primarily on greater forecast
imports by Senegal and Cote d’Ivoire.
1999 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- Argentina exports up
125,000 tons to 650,000 due to a stronger-than-expected
pace of exports late in the year.
Selected Importers
- The Philippines
imports down 200,000 tons to 1 million based on end of
year trade data.
- Africa regional
imports up 400,000 tons to nearly 5 million based upon
stronger-than-expected imports by a number of western
African countries.
Download the rice tables in:
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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