WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is projected up 2 million tons to 98.1 million, the highest level in ten years. Asian import demand has rebounded to nearly the level reached in the mid-nineties. Global production is down 17.5 million tons compared to 1998/99 due mainly to reductions in the Chinese and U.S. corn crops and barley shortfalls in the Middle East. Global consumption is up 10 million tons fueled mainly by soaring U.S. domestic consumption and increasing Asian demand. Ending stocks are down 7.6 million tons due primarily to a reduction in Chinese and U.S. corn stocks, which make up nearly 60% of all coarse grain stocks.
Global corn trade is forecast up 1.6 million tons, the highest since 1994/95. Increased exports from China and Argentina are expected to reduce U.S. exports by 3.9 million tons from 1998/99 levels. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Middle Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently forecast to export a record 9.2 million tons of barley.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
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