SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is projected up 2 million tons to 98.1 million, the highest level in ten years. Asian import demand has rebounded to nearly the level reached in the mid-nineties. Global production is down 17.5 million tons compared to 1998/99 due mainly to reductions in the Chinese and U.S. corn crops and barley shortfalls in the Middle East. Global consumption is up 10 million tons fueled mainly by soaring U.S. domestic consumption and increasing Asian demand. Ending stocks are down 7.6 million tons due primarily to a reduction in Chinese and U.S. corn stocks, which make up nearly 60% of all coarse grain stocks.

Global corn trade is forecast up 1.6 million tons, the highest since 1994/95. Increased exports from China and Argentina are expected to reduce U.S. exports by 3.9 million tons from 1998/99 levels. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Middle Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently forecast to export a record 9.2 million tons of barley.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn exports down 1 million tons to 48 million due to an increase in competition from China.

• China corn up 3 million tons to 8 million because of strong exports to date and an increased sales pace.

• EU barley up 200,000 tons to 9.2 million due to increased world demand.

• United States sorghum up 200,000 tons to 5.5 million because of continuing strong sales and increasing demand from Mexico.

Selected Importers

• South Korea corn imports up 500,000 tons to 9 million due to increased demand by feedmillers and reduced imports of feed wheat.

• Egypt corn up 300,000 tons to 4.0 million due to a strong import pace to date.

• Taiwan corn up 200,000 tons to 4.7 million because of a strong import pace to date.

• China barley up 100,000 tons to 2.4 million due to strong import demand for malting barley.

• Mexico sorghum up 200,000 tons to 3.6 million due to continued strong demand by feedmillers in the absence of corn import licenses.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003