WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 104.2 million tons. Trade in recent years has been relatively flat although prices have fluctuated between record highs and near-record lows. U.S. exports are facing strong competition from Canada, Argentina, and Australia due to near-record harvests. Global production is down, owing to smaller crops in several key importing countries, as well as the United States and the European Union. Global consumption is largely unchanged and will exceed production for the second year in a row. Consequently, ending stocks will be drawn down. However, stocks in the major exporting countries will remain large, limiting any price increase.
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have been little changed. In early January, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $108 per ton for nearby shipment, compared to $125 per ton a year ago. World wheat trade is up slightly this month as higher imports by Iran, Indonesia, and Russia more than offset lower import demand by China and South Korea.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
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