SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade in 2000 is
forecast to drop as weaker Asian imports more than offset greater
imports by the Middle East and Latin America. U.S. exports are
expected to increase 9 percent as a result of record supplies and
lower prices. Global prices, which declined in 1999, will be
further pressured by large supplies in nearly all exporting
countries. Global production, consumption and ending stocks are
all projected to climb to record (or near-record) levels in
1999/2000, largely due to increases in China, the world’s
largest producer.
Despite harvest pressures, Thai
export prices rose over the past month, largely a result of a
stronger Thai Baht which reached a six month high vis-a-vis the
dollar in early January. Still, there is little expectation of
price strength in 2000 due to becalmed world trade, expected
bumper harvests in many Asian countries in early 2000 and the
Indonesian imposition of a 30% rice import tariff which began
January 1, 2000. U.S. rice export prices dropped slightly in
early January.
2000 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- Thailand
rice exports up 200,000 tons to 6.0 million based on
large exportable supplies available in 2000 and a
vigorous pace of exports in 1999.
- Vietnam up
200,000 tons to 4.3 million due to a brisk pace of
exports and large exportable supplies in 1999, as well as
announced export licenses for 2000.
Selected Importers
- United States imports up 65,000 tons to record
375,000 because of a strong pace of imports in 1999.
- Iran up
200,000 tons to 1.2 million tons based on a below average
domestic crop, a large government to government rice
import deal with Thailand, and an increasingly strong
pace of imports by the private trade in late 1999.
1999 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- Thailand
exports up 550,000 tons to a record 6.7 million due to
larger than expected exports to Indonesia in December
1999 prior to the new year’s import tariff.
- Vietnam up
150,000 tons to a record 4.7 million due to continued
stronger than expected exports.
Selected Importers
- United States imports up 50,000 tons to 350,000 due to
brisk pace of imports.
- Iran up
150,000 tons to 1 million owing to stronger than expected
imports late in the year.
- European Union third country imports are up
75,000 tons to 775,000 due to larger than forecast
imports from non-EU suppliers.
Download the rice tables in:
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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