SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is projected up slightly from 1998/99 levels at 96.1 million tons. Global production is down16.8 million tons due mainly to reductions in the Chinese and U.S. corn crops and barley shortfalls in the Middle East. With global consumption up 5 million tons, ending stocks are down 5 million tons. Chinese and U.S. corn stocks make up 60% of all coarse grain stocks.

Global corn trade is forecast up marginally to a five year high. Increased exports from China and Argentina are expected to encroach into U.S. world market share, reducing expected exports 2.9 million tons from 1998/99 levels. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Middle Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently forecast to export a record nine million tons.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn exports up 1.5 million tons to 49.0 million due to a strong sales pace to date and increased global demand.

• Argentina corn down 300,000 tons to 8.5 million because of an expected increase in domestic

• Canadian barley up 100,000 tons to 1.8 million.

Selected Importers

• South Korea imports corn up 250,000 tons to 8.5 million because of smaller feed wheat purchases.

• Mexico corn up 300,000 tons to 5.0 million because of a pickup in import licences.

• Brazil corn up 600,000 tons to 1.6 million due to a smaller projected crop.

• Saudi Arabia barley up 100,000 tons to 4.8 million due to larger expected demand.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003