SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade in 2000 is forecast to drop as greater imports by the Middle East and Latin America only partially offset weaker Asian imports. U.S. exports are expected to increase 9 percent as a result of record supplies and lower prices. Global prices, which have declined in 1999, will be further pressured by large supplies in nearly all exporting countries. Global production, consumption and ending stocks are all projected to climb to records in 1999/2000, largely due to increases in China and India, the two largest producers.

Global trade in 1999 is up this month because of a forecast increase in exports by Vietnam and China. After a sharp decline in early October, Asian prices remained relatively stable for the past month. However, there is little expectation of price strength due to stagnant world trade, further import restrictions by Indonesia, and expected bumper harvests in many Asian countries this fall and early 2000. Following continued drops in the World Market Price, U.S. rice export prices have declined slightly over the past five weeks.

2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• China up 100,000 tons to 2.9 million because of a brisk export pace in 1999 and large exportable supplies available in 2000.

• Australia down 200,000 tons to 500,000 due to smaller estimated production.

Selected Importers

• Iran up 100,000 tons to 1 million due to projected larger imports, a smaller projected crop in 1999/2000 and the expectation that global rice prices will remain depressed in 2000.

• Bangladesh down 100,000 tons to 1 million based on estimated smaller import demand because of a larger projected crop in 1999/2000.

1999 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• China up 300,000 tons to 2.8 million based on strong exports to date.

• Vietnam up 300,000 tons to 4.5 million based on continued stronger exports.

• India down 350,000 tons to 2.4 million due to smaller than expected pace of exports through August.

Selected Importers

• Iran up 200,000 tons to 850,000 based on larger than expected imports by the private trade.

• Bangladesh down 400,000 tons to 1.4 million due to weak pace of imports to date.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003