WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 101.6 million tons. This is the seventh consecutive year that trade has been around this level although prices have fluctuated between record highs and near-record lows. Slightly higher U.S. exports will face strong competition from Canada, Argentina, and Australia due to bumper harvests. Global production is down, owing to smaller crops in several key importing countries, as well as the United States, and the European Union. Global consumption is forecast largely unchanged, but is still expected to exceed production for the second year in a row. Consequently, ending stocks will be drawn down. However, stocks in the major exporting countries will remain large, limiting any price increase.
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have been little changed due to stagnant import demand. In early November, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf averaged about $113 per ton for nearby shipment, compared to $131 per ton a year ago. World wheat trade is up slightly this month due to higher imports by Brazil and India as well as more exportable supplies in Argentina, Australia, and Kazakhstan.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
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