SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:
COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD
RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade in 2000 is
forecast to drop only fractionally as greater imports by the
Middle East and Latin America nearly offset weaker Asian imports.
U.S. exports are expected to increase 9 percent as a result of
record supplies and lower prices. Global prices, which have
declined in 1999, will be further pressured by large supplies in
nearly all exporting countries. Global production, consumption
and ending stocks are all projected to climb to records in
1999/2000, largely due to increases in China and India, the two
largest producers.
Global trade in 1999 is up this
month because of a forecast increase in exports by China,
Thailand and Vietnam, three of the largest exporters. After a
sharp decline in early October, Asian prices have remained
relatively stable for the past month. However, there is little
expectation of price strength due to stagnant world trade,
further import restrictions by Indonesia, and bumper harvests in
many Asian countries this fall. Despite continued drops in the
World Market Price, U.S. rice export prices have declined little
over the past five weeks.
2000 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- India down 700,000
tons to 1.5 million due to expected uncompetitive export
prices for non-basmati as a result of the high domestic
minimum support price for paddy rice.
- China up 650,000 tons
to 2.8 million based on an estimated rise in production.
- Thailand and Vietnam
both up 100,000 tons to 5.8 million and 4.1 million.
Selected Importers
- Brazil up 100,000
tons to 1.1 million due to forecast lower production in
1999/2000.
- North Korea down
100,000 tons to 250,000 based on an estimated increase in
production.
- Nigeria up 50,000
tons to 850,000 due to an estimated increase in parboiled
rice imports.
- Cote d’Ivoire
down 50,000 tons to 500,000 due to greater expected
production.
1999 Trade
Changes
Selected Exporters
- China up 500,000 tons
to 2.5 million based on strong exports to date and larger
production.
- Thailand up 400,000
tons to 6.1 million based on larger exports to date.
- Vietnam up 200,000
tons to 4.2 million based on continued stronger exports.
- Burma down 125,000
tons to 75,000 due to smaller-than-expected exports
caused by domestic rice price policy.
Selected Importers
- Indonesia up 700,000
tons to 3.9 million, despite import restrictions.
- Nigeria up 100,000
tons to 900,000 based on larger parboiled imports from
Thailand.
- Mexico up 35,000 tons
to 360,000 due to strong pace of imports to date.
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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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