SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is down slightly, reflecting stalled global consumption since 1996/97. Corn trade is forecast down 2.4 million tons with U.S. exports dropping 4.5 million because of increased competition from China. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Middle Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently forecast to export a record nine million tons and the black sea region is expected to see an increase in exportable supplies. A reduced U.S. barley crop is expected to result in the U.S. being a net importer for a second consecutive year.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Canada barley up 100,000 tons to 1.7 million based on a larger crop.

• Kazakstan barley up 400,000 tons to 700,000 due to a larger crop.

Selected Importers

• Russia corn up 450 ,000 tons to 500,000 because of larger U.S. concessional sales.

• Israel barley up 400,000 tons to 800,000 due to expected higher feed demand.

• South Korea rye up 100,000 tons to 300,000 because of recent purchases.

1998/99 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States sorghum up 150,000 tons to 5.15 million due to a strong end-of-season pace.

Selected Importers

• U.S. barley down 75,000 tons to 625,000 based on a slower end-of-season pace.

• Mexico sorghum up 150,000 tons reflecting higher demand by feedmillers.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003