SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

Global rice trade in 2000 is forecast to be the third highest level on record as increased demand in the Middle East and Latin America nearly offsets weaker trade in Asia. While facing stiff competition, U.S. exports are expected to be slightly higher in 2000. Global prices, which have declined in 1999, will be further pressured by larger exportable supplies. Worldwide consumption in 1999/2000 is expected to exceed projected record global production resulting in a further drawdown in stocks. A major factor behind expectations of weaker prices are abundant supplies in the hands of exporters.

Global trade in 1999 is revised up this month because of a forecast increase in annual Vietnam exports. Asian prices declined sharply over the past month as world demand stagnates, primarily caused by Indonesian import policy restrictions. Despite U.S. harvest pressures and a further weakening of the World Market Price, U.S. rice prices have weakened only slightly over the past five weeks. The U.S. price drop has been limited by significant PL480 sales and a slow pace of marketing by producers.

2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Vietnam exports up 150,000 tons to 4 million based on larger expected production due to increased planted area intentions.

Selected Importers

• The United Arab Emirates up 60,000 tons to 150,000 due to the expectation of continued transshipments to other markets.

1999 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• Vietnam imports up 300,000 tons to 4 million based on strong exports to date and a increased production estimate.

Selected Importers

• The United Arab Emirates up 60,000 tons to 150,000 due to larger than expected imports, the bulk of which are believed to be re-exported to other markets.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003