WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
For the seventh consecutive year, world wheat trade is projected at around 100 million tons. United States exports in 1999/2000 are expected to be up slightly, but will continue to face strong competition from Canada, Argentina, and Australia due to near record crops. Global production is down, owing to smaller crops in several key importing countries, as well as the United States, and the European Union. For the first time in nearly a decade, global consumption is forecast slightly lower, as the growth in food use is offset by a decline in wheat used for feeding. With global consumption exceeding production for the second year in a row, ending stocks will be drawn down. However, stocks in the major exporting countries will remain large, limiting price increases.
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have been supported by rain in the northern plains which has delayed spring wheat harvest. In early September, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf rose to about $120 per ton for nearby shipment compared to $117 last month. World wheat trade is up slightly this month as higher projected imports by Algeria and India more than offset declines in Pakistan and Yemen.
1999/2000 Trade Changes
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