WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global rice trade in 2000 is forecast to reach the second highest level on record as increased demand in the Middle East and Latin America offset Asias return to a more traditional level of trade. U.S. exports are expected to increase more than 10 percent, despite continued strong competition from Thailand and Vietnam. Global prices, which have declined in 1999, will be further pressured by the competitive situation in 2000. Worldwide consumption in 1999/2000 and exceed projected record global production resulting in a further drawdown in stocks. World stock levels are projected to decline to the lowest level since 1987/88, largely due to lower stocks in China. Abundant supplies in the hands of exporters are viewed as burdensome vis-a-vis the price outlook.
Forecast global trade in 1999 is up this month because of increased exports by Thailand and India. Indonesias recently announced restrictions on private trade will limit imports to higher quality rice with less than to 5 percent brokens. In response, Thai and Viet prices have begun to decline as import demand from Indonesia wanes. Despite onset of the southern U.S. harvest and a further decline in the World Market Price, U.S. rice prices have remained generally flat over the past five weeks and have been supported by significant PL480 sales to Indonesia and Russia.
2000 Trade Changes
1999 Trade Changes
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