SITUATION AND OUTLOOK:

COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA

WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK

World coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is down slightly. Global consumption has stalled for the last four years. Corn trade is forecast slightly below the 1998/99 level, and U.S. exports will face increased competition from China. World barley trade is forecast to remain robust as Middle Eastern and North African demand continues strong. The EU is currently forecast to export a record nine million tons. A reduced U.S. barley crop is expected to result in the U.S. being a net importer for a second consecutive year.

1999/2000 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn exports are down 1.5 million tons to 47 million due to forecast increased competition from China.

• China corn up 1.5 million tons to 5 million due to lower domestic prices, large stocks, and reports of large forward sales.

• Argentina corn down 500,000 tons to 8.5 million due to tighter supplies.

• Canada barley up 200,000 tons to 1.6 million due to expected higher exports of feed quality barley.

Selected Importers

• India corn imports up 250,000 tons due to increased demand by poultry feeders.

1998/1999 Trade Changes

Selected Exporters

• United States corn exports are up 1 million tons to 51 million and China up 700,000 tons to 3.5 million due to strong end of season pace.

• Argentina corn down 500,000 tons to 8.2 million due to slow down in late season sales and expected increase in domestic use.

• Hungary corn up 300,000 tons to 1.8 million reflecting strong Eastern European demand.

• EU barley up 300,000 tons to 7.8 million.

Selected Importers

• Brazil corn down 500,000 tons to 1.5 million.

• India corn up 200,000 tons reflecting the first commercial shipments bought by Indian feedmillers.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003