WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Over the past month, U.S. wheat prices have been supported by corn as hot and dry weather throughout the midwest has reduced crop prospects. In early August, export quotes for #2 HRW FOB Gulf moved to about $117 per ton for nearby shipment compared to $108 a month ago. World wheat trade in 1999/2000 is forecast at 100 million tons, relatively unchanged from last months projection. Global consumption is expected to be 1 million tons lower this month mainly due to lower production prospects in Russia. Global ending stocks are expected to be almost 2 million tons higher with China accounting for most of this increase because of a larger crop. The stocks-to-use ratio stands at 21 percent.
Wheat exports by Argentina in 1999/2000 are projected 500,000 tons higher to 8.5 million due to higher production prospects.
1999/2000 wheat exports by Kazakstan are forecast at 1.8 million tons, a decline of 500,000 because of a smaller crop.
Wheat exports by Mexico are expected to be 400,000 tons in 1998/99 and 1999/2000, an increase of 300,000 in each year due to aggressive durum shipments to North Africa over the past several months.
1999/2000 wheat imports by China are forecast at 1.5 million tons, 500,000 below last month due to larger production prospects.
Brazilian wheat import forecast is raised 500,000 tons, to 6.3 million based on smaller-than-expected production prospects. Farmers planted less area largely because of more attractive prices for other crops.
Wheat imports by Algeria in 1998/99 and 1999/2000 are expected to be 4.2 and 4.0 million tons respectively due to larger-than-expected import purchases to date.
Wheat imports by the European Union are expected to be 3.6 million tons in both 1998/99 and 1999/2000, an increase of 200,000 in each year.
1998/99 and 1999/2000 wheat imports by Turkey are estimated at 1.5 million tons, up 300,000 in each year.
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