WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is forecast up slightly at 93 million tons this month, while global production is forecast down month to month 12.1 million tons to 872.5 million tons, due chiefly to changes in China, Eastern Europe and the FSU. Forecast global consumption for 1999/2000 is down 7.2 million tons to 873.4 million and stocks are projected 6 million tons lower than last month at 141.7 million tons.
Estimated 1998/99 world corn trade is at 66.8 million tons, up 1.2 million from last month while 1999/2000 trade is up 450,000 tons to 66.3 million. Forecast trade in barley for 1998/99 is up 250,000 tons to 15.8 million tons, but trade for 1999/2000 is projected down 320,000 tons to 15.9 million, compared to 16.2 million last month. Forecast 1999/2000 global barley consumption is down 2.1 million tons to 134.1 million mainly due to lower feed use in Eastern Europe, Ukraine, and Saudi Arabia. Forecast 1998/99 and 1999/2000 world trade in sorghum, oats, and rye is relatively unchanged from last month.
Estimated U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 are raised by 1 million tons to 50 million because of higher demand by Mexico, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia, while foreast U.S. corn exports for 1999/2000 are lowered 500,000 to 48.5 million due to lower expected production.
Estimated Chinese corn exports for 1998/99 are raised 300,000 tons to 2.8 million and forecast 1999/2000 exports are raised 1 million tons to 3.5 million, whereas estimated 1998/99 Argentine corn exports for 1998/99 are lowered 200,000 tons to 8.8 million tons.
Projected South African corn exports for1998/99 and 1999/2000 are raised by 250,000 tons each year to1.0 million and 750,000 respectively due to a larger 1998 crop.
Estimated Turkish barley exports for 1998/99 are lowered 200,000 tons to 1.2 million.
Forecast EU barley exports for 1999/00 are raised 500,000 tons to a record 9 million based on the record early-season pace for export licenses that reflect strong sales prospects.
Projected Australian barley exports are raised 300,000 tons to 3.6 million for 1998/99, but lowered 100,000 tons to 2.8 million for 1999/2000. Forecast barley exports for the Ukraine are lowered 250,000 tons to 500,000 due to lower estimated production.
Estimated Mexican corn imports for 1998/99 are estimated at 5.5 million tons, up 250,000 from last month, due to stronger import pace to date.
Estimated 1998/99 Egyptian corn imports are raised 600,000 tons to 4.1 million and forecast 1999/2000 imports are raised 500,000 tons to 4 million, while 1998/99 Saudi Arabian corn imports are raised 200,000 tons to 1.5 million.
Forecast 1999/2000 Saudi Arabian barley imports are lowered 500,000 tons to 4.5 million due to an expected drawdown in stocks.
Estimated Russian barley imports for 1998/99 are raised 100,000 tons to 250,000 and forecast 1999/2000 imports are raised 150,000 tons to 250,000.
Estimated 1998/99 barley imports by Morocco are raised 100,000 tons to 1.0 million.
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