July 1999 Edition
Global Rice Trade in 2000 Forecast Higher, Still Below 1998 Record
Record Imports Outside Asia; Asian Importers Maintain Traditional Demand Level
World rice trade is forecast at 22.4 million tons for calendar year 2000, the second highest level on record, and marginally surpassing 1999. Growing import demand in Latin America and the Middle East will more than offset Asia's lower trade level in Bangladesh and the Philippines. Global rice production is forecast up 7.5 million tons to 579 million tons (rough basis), a new record due primarily to an expected increase in China's production. World consumption is expected to be 393 million tons, outpacing milled production and drawing global stocks down nearly 3 million tons to the lowest level in 12 years.
Although record consumption and diminishing world stocks in 1999/2000 would imply tight supplies, there will not likely be upward pressure on world prices. This is because stocks are expected to decline in countries which are not dependent upon import demand, like China. Global prices will likely soften due to plentiful supplies among the major exporters (the United States, Thailand and Vietnam) and a more traditional level of import demand.
Foreign Countries' Policies and Programs
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed Contact List
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