EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SITUATION/OUTLOOK

• Estimated U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 are raised by 1.5 million tons to 49.0 million while China's corn export estimates are lowered 500,000 tons to 2.5 million. For 1999/2000 U.S. corn exports also are raised 2 million tons to 49.0 million, and forecast exports in China are down 1.5 million tons.

• Global rice trade in 2000 is projected at 22.4 million tons, expected to surpass 1999 trade by 300,000, but still well below the 1998 record. United States is projected to export a record 3.0 million tons, an increase of 250,000 from the current 1999 forecast.

• 1999/2000 wheat exports by Australian are raised 500,000 tons this month, to 17.5 million to due higher production prospects.

• Japan corn imports are raised 500,000 tons to 16.5 million for 1998/99 and in 1999/2000 to 16.3 million tons, up 350,000.

• Due to record or near-record rice production levels expected across Asia in 1999/2000, import forecasts for 2000 decline 300,000 tons each for Bangladesh and the Philippines to 1.0 million and 900,000 respectively.

• Wheat imports by China in 1999/2000 are projected at 2 million tons, 2 million below last month’s estimate because of higher production prospects.

• Forecast 1998/99 corn imports by South Korea are raised by 500,000 tons to 7.8 million while corn imports by Mexico and the EU are projected up 500,000 tons each to 5.3 million and 3 million, respectively.

• Rice exports in China are projected to reach 1.9 million tons in 2000, increasing 150,000 from the 1999 estimate. Despite near-record production, growing Chinese domestic consumption is expected to heavily outweigh milled production in 1999/00, resulting in a stock draw down of 1.4 million tons.

FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS

• India ponders how to deal with the excessive wheat reserves that its policies helped create.

• Yemen liberalizes wheat flour imports and eliminates consumer subsidies on flour.

• The sharp decline in the Euro translates into improved access for imported grains.

 WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW

WHEAT

Global wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 100 million tons, 1 million above the 1998/99 level. World production is forecast to be 575 million tons, down 13 million from the previous year. Among the major exporters, crop decreases are expected to occur in the United States, the European Union, and Canada, while crops in Australia and Argentina are projected up 1.5 and 1 million tons respectively. Production is down in several import markets, including Pakistan, Iran, and most of North Africa while the wheat crop in the former Soviet Union is expected to rebound. Global consumption is expected to be 2 million tons below the previous year, and for the second consecutive year, is projected to exceed production, drawing down ending stocks by 13 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 21 percent.

RICE

Global rice trade in calendar year 2000 is projected to reach 22.4 million tons, the second largest trade level on record, surpassing the 1999 estimate by over 300,000. World production is forecast at a record 578.7 million tons (rough) in 1999/2000, 10.0 million higher than 1998/99, due primarily to an expected production increase in China. Production increases are expected in major exporting countries, including the United States and Thailand, as well as in importing nations, notably Bangladesh and the Philippines, resulting in record or near-record crops in 1999/2000. As a result, Asian import demand is estimated to return to a more normal level, down 5.6 million tons from the 1998 record.

COARSE GRAINS

World coarse grain production in 1999/2000 is projected at 885 million tons while consumption is forecast at 881 million. Global trade in 1999/2000 is projected up slightly at about 1 million tons to 93 million. This boost is due to higher import demand for corn and barley, which are forecast at 66 and 16 million tons, respectively. 1999/2000 coarse grain imports are projected to rise about 1.5 million tons in the Middle East and almost 500,000 in Asia, while little growth is expected elsewhere.

With production forecast above consumption in 1999/2000, world carryout stocks are projected to rise by 4 million tons. Stocks are forecast to grow in the United States, (up nearly 6 million tons) and China (up 7.5 million tons), and this more than offsets reductions in Canada, Russia, and the EU.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003