FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW
Global wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 100 million tons, 1 million above the 1998/99 level. World production is forecast to be 575 million tons, down 13 million from the previous year. Among the major exporters, crop decreases are expected to occur in the United States, the European Union, and Canada, while crops in Australia and Argentina are projected up 1.5 and 1 million tons respectively. Production is down in several import markets, including Pakistan, Iran, and most of North Africa while the wheat crop in the former Soviet Union is expected to rebound. Global consumption is expected to be 2 million tons below the previous year, and for the second consecutive year, is projected to exceed production, drawing down ending stocks by 13 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 21 percent.
Global rice trade in calendar year 2000 is projected to reach 22.4 million tons, the second largest trade level on record, surpassing the 1999 estimate by over 300,000. World production is forecast at a record 578.7 million tons (rough) in 1999/2000, 10.0 million higher than 1998/99, due primarily to an expected production increase in China. Production increases are expected in major exporting countries, including the United States and Thailand, as well as in importing nations, notably Bangladesh and the Philippines, resulting in record or near-record crops in 1999/2000. As a result, Asian import demand is estimated to return to a more normal level, down 5.6 million tons from the 1998 record.
World coarse grain production in 1999/2000 is projected at 885 million tons while consumption is forecast at 881 million. Global trade in 1999/2000 is projected up slightly at about 1 million tons to 93 million. This boost is due to higher import demand for corn and barley, which are forecast at 66 and 16 million tons, respectively. 1999/2000 coarse grain imports are projected to rise about 1.5 million tons in the Middle East and almost 500,000 in Asia, while little growth is expected elsewhere.
With production forecast above consumption in 1999/2000, world carryout stocks are projected to rise by 4 million tons. Stocks are forecast to grow in the United States, (up nearly 6 million tons) and China (up 7.5 million tons), and this more than offsets reductions in Canada, Russia, and the EU.
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