WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Global coarse grain trade for 1999/2000 is forecast relatively unchanged at 92.8 million tons this month, while global production is forecast up 4.4 million tons to 884.6 million, due chiefly to changes in the United States and China. Forecast global consumption for 1999/2000 is down slightly to 880.5 million tons and ending stocks are projected 7 million higher than last month at 147.7 million.
1998/99 world corn trade is estimated at 65.7 million tons, up 450,000 from last month while 1999/2000 trade is down to 65.8 million tons. Trade in barley for 1998/99 is up slightly at 15.5 million tons, but forecast trade for 1999/2000 is projected at 16.2 million, compared to 16.1 million last month. Projected 1999/2000 trade in sorghum stands at 6.9 million tons, unchanged from last month, and 1998/99 trade is also unchanged from last month. 1998/99 world oats trade is down 200,000 tons from last month to 1.9 million, while rye trade for 1998/99 and 1999/2000 is unchanged.
Estimated U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 are raised by 1.5 million tons to 49 million, due to increased demand in Japan, South Korea and Mexico, as well as reduced competition from China.
Projected U.S. corn exports for 1999/2000 are raised by 2 million tons to 49 million, in anticipation of lower competition from China and Eastern Europe.
Estimated Chinese corn exports are lowered 500,000 tons to 2.5 million for 1998/99 and 1.5 million to 2.5 million for 1999/2000.
EU barley export estimate for 1998/99 is raised 250,000 tons to 7.5 million and Australia barley exports are up 200,000 tons to 3.3 million.
Projected EU barley exports for 1999/2000 are raised 750,000 tons to 8.5 million. Forecast barley exports for Russia and Turkey are each lowered from 1 million to 500,000 tons due to lower estimated production. Projected Canadian barley exports are raised 200,000 tons to 1.4 million.
Forecast South Korea corn imports in 1998/99 and 1999/2000 are up 250,000 tons each to 7.8 million and 8.3 million, respectively. Projected Japanese corn imports are raised 500,000 tons to 16.5 million in 1998/99 and raised 350,000 tons to 16.3 million in 1999/2000. Mexico corn imports for 1998/99, estimated at 5.3 million tons, are up 500,000 and for 1999/2000 are raised 250,000 tons to 5 million.
EU corn imports are raised 500,000 tons to 3.0 million in 1998/99, while U.S. oats imports for 1998/99 are lowered 200,000 tons to 1.5 million due to a slower than expected import pace to date.
1998/99 and 1999/2000 estimated Algeria barley imports are raised each year by 150,000 tons to 600,000.
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