WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Projected global rice trade in calendar year 1999 rose fractionally this month, reaching 22.0 million tons. World rice production is increased nearly 4.0 million tons (rough basis) in 1998/99. Crop revisions in India and Bangladesh, two of the worlds top five rice producers, accounted for the large increase in the production forecast. Global stocks followed the upward trend, climbing by 1.7 million tons.
Asian rice prices have increased throughout May and early-June, up $10-$15 per metric ton for high quality rice and up $10-$20 per ton for lower quality rice in major Asian markets. Lax demand from key importers and plentiful supplies of rice among key exporters, however, has dampened the rise in overall world prices. Thai 100B price quotes climbed to $260 per ton this week, up $12 a ton from four weeks ago, driven by a strengthening currency the recent sale of 300,000 tons of 100B to Iran. U.S. price quotes dipped downward during the middle of the month, but sprang back at the end of the 5-week period, settling down about $10 lower than last months. U.S. long grain export quotes are more than $90 per ton lower than one year ago.
Forecast Burma rice exports are increased in calendar year 1999 to 150,000 metric tons based on reported sales.
The 1999 rice import estimate for Peru is decreased to 200,000 metric tons, down 25,000 tons due to the expectation of greater production.
Mexico rice import expectations are increased by 25,000 metric tons to 325,000 tons due to a downward revision in production.
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