EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

SITUATION/OUTLOOK

• Forecast U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 are raised by 1.0 million tons to 47.5 million tons while forecast China corn exports are lowered 500,000 tons to 3.0 million tons.

• Canadian wheat exports in 1998/99 are expected to be 500,000 tons below last month’s estimate based on slow shipment pace to date. Exports are forecast at 13.5 million tons, which is the lowest level since 1978 (13.4 million tons). The 1999/2000 export projection is also reduced 500,000 tons (16.5 million tons) because of a smaller-than-expected crop.

• Wheat exports by Argentina in 1998/99 (July/June) are forecast at 8 million tons, 500,000 tons above last month due to aggressive export shipments during recent months. The export forecast for 1999/2000 (July/June) is also raised 500,000 tons, to 7.5 million tons.

• Wheat imports by Pakistan in 1999/2000 are projected at 3.5 million tons, 500,000 tons below last month’s estimate because of higher production prospects.

• Mexico rice import expectations are increased by 25,000 metric tons to 325,000 tons due to a downward revision in production.

• Forecast 1998/99 corn imports by South Korea are raised by 250,000 tons to 7.3 million metric tons and Egypt by 250,000 tons to 3.5 million tons.

• Forecast Hungary 1999/2000 corn exports are raised to 2.0 million tons, up from 1.2 million tons.

• South Korea projected corn imports are raised to 8.0 million tons for 1999/2000.

• Saudi Arabia barley import forecast is lowered to 4.8 million tons in 1998/99 and to 5.0 million tons in 1999/2000.

  FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS

• Several factors are at work as Nigeria regains prominence as a wheat importer.

• Ukraine is gaining as a competitor in the world wheat market.

 WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW

WHEAT

Global wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 101 million tons, 3 million tons above the 1998/99 level. World production is forecast to be 570 million tons, down 18 million tons from the previous year. Among the major exporters, crop decreases are expected to occur in the United States, the European Union, and Canada, while crops in Australia and Argentina are projected up 1 million tons each. Production is down in several import markets, including China, Pakistan, Iran, and most of North Africa while the wheat crop in the former Soviet Union is expected to rebound. Global consumption is expected to be basically unchanged from the previous year, and for the second consecutive year, is projected to exceed production, drawing down ending stocks by 20 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 20 percent.

RICE

International rice trade in calendar year 1999 is projected at 22 million tons, 5.5 million tons lower than last year’s record level. This year’s post-El Nino return to normal global weather is expected to reduce import needs in key import markets: Indonesia, the Philippines and Brazil. Worldwide production in 1998/99 is forecast to fall almost 4.0 million tons (rough basis) from the previous year’s record crop. Increased production in South Asia somewhat offsets the smaller crop expected in China. Global consumption is expected to rise by 3.0 million tons year-to-year, while 1998/99 stocks are estimated to draw down 4.4 million tons worldwide.

COARSE GRAINS

World coarse grain production in 1999/2000 is projected at 880 million tons while consumption is forecast at 882 million tons. For the first time in four years, consumption is expected to be above production. Global carryout stocks are not projected to rise appreciably and are nearly unchanged at 141 million tons. Global trade in 1999/2000 is projected up 2 million tons to 93 million tons. This boost is due to higher import demand for corn and barley, which are forecast at 66 and 16 million tons, respectively. Trade in sorghum, oats, and rye is projected relatively unchanged.

1999/2000 coarse grain imports are projected to rise in the Middle East, up 1.2 million tons, and Asia up almost 1 million tons while little growth is expected elsewhere. Imports by Asia, forecast to increase from 1998/99, still remain nearly 4 million tons below the 1995/96 level. From 1995/96 through forecast 1999/2000 Asia import demand for barley is projected up 1 million tons and corn down 5 million tons. Asia's corn imports as a share of world imports are estimated down from 55 to 45 percent. U.S. corn export competitors, Argentina, China and Hungary are projected to account for almost 25 percent of world trade in 1999/2000, up 10 percentage points from five years ago. U.S. corn market share remains a respectable 70 percent of world trade in corn, forecast at 66 million tons in 1999/2000, but is down from 80 percent five years ago.

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Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003