FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW
Global wheat trade in 1999/2000 is projected at 101 million tons, 3 million tons above the 1998/99 level. World production is forecast to be 570 million tons, down 18 million tons from the previous year. Among the major exporters, crop decreases are expected to occur in the United States, the European Union, and Canada, while crops in Australia and Argentina are projected up 1 million tons each. Production is down in several import markets, including China, Pakistan, Iran, and most of North Africa while the wheat crop in the former Soviet Union is expected to rebound. Global consumption is expected to be basically unchanged from the previous year, and for the second consecutive year, is projected to exceed production, drawing down ending stocks by 20 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is expected to be 20 percent.
International rice trade in calendar year 1999 is projected at 22 million tons, 5.5 million tons lower than last years record level. This years post-El Nino return to normal global weather is expected to reduce import needs in key import markets: Indonesia, the Philippines and Brazil. Worldwide production in 1998/99 is forecast to fall almost 4.0 million tons (rough basis) from the previous years record crop. Increased production in South Asia somewhat offsets the smaller crop expected in China. Global consumption is expected to rise by 3.0 million tons year-to-year, while 1998/99 stocks are estimated to draw down 4.4 million tons worldwide.
World coarse grain production in 1999/2000 is projected at 880 million tons while consumption is forecast at 882 million tons. For the first time in four years, consumption is expected to be above production. Global carryout stocks are not projected to rise appreciably and are nearly unchanged at 141 million tons. Global trade in 1999/2000 is projected up 2 million tons to 93 million tons. This boost is due to higher import demand for corn and barley, which are forecast at 66 and 16 million tons, respectively. Trade in sorghum, oats, and rye is projected relatively unchanged.
1999/2000 coarse grain imports are projected to rise in the Middle East, up 1.2 million tons, and Asia up almost 1 million tons while little growth is expected elsewhere. Imports by Asia, forecast to increase from 1998/99, still remain nearly 4 million tons below the 1995/96 level. From 1995/96 through forecast 1999/2000 Asia import demand for barley is projected up 1 million tons and corn down 5 million tons. Asia's corn imports as a share of world imports are estimated down from 55 to 45 percent. U.S. corn export competitors, Argentina, China and Hungary are projected to account for almost 25 percent of world trade in 1999/2000, up 10 percentage points from five years ago. U.S. corn market share remains a respectable 70 percent of world trade in corn, forecast at 66 million tons in 1999/2000, but is down from 80 percent five years ago.
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