WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The global coarse grain trade forecast for 1999/2000 is almost unchanged at 92.6 million tons this month from the initial projection last month at 92.4 million tons. The global production estimate for coarse grains is forecast down to 880.2 million tons, a reduction of 4.4 million tons from the previous month, due chiefly to changes in Russia and Ukraine. Forecast global consumption for 1999/2000 is down slightly to 881.5 million tons. Projected ending stocks at 140.9 million tons are down 4 million tons from last month.
Forecast 1998/99 world corn trade at 65.2 million tons is up 700,000 tons from last month while 1999/2000 trade is up 500,000 tons to 65.9 million tons. Forecast trade in barley for 1998/99 is unchanged at 15.4 million tons, but trade for 1999/2000 is projected at 15.9 million tons, compared to 16.4 million tons last month. Projected 1999/2000 trade in sorghum for 1999/2000 is raised to 6.9 million tons, up 300,000 tons and forecast 1998/99 trade is estimated higher at 6.6 million tons, up 200,000 tons. There are only very minor adjustments made to forecast oats and rye trade for 1998/99 or 1999/2000.
U.S. #2 Yellow Corn prices, FOB Gulf averaged $96/ton in May, beneath a five-year 1990-1995 average of $103. Reports indicate Argentina's corn is currently priced an average $4-5/ton FOB over U.S. In Argentina, lower year to year corn production has resulted in diminished export availability, pushing up prices. Also, Argentina currently competes for European Union corn imports unopposed by the United States over the issue of unapproved varieties of genetically modified organisms in U.S. corn. In a June 7 official release, the government reported export sales of 1.8 million tons to the EU.
Forecast U.S. corn exports for 1998/99 are raised by 1.0 million tons to 47.5 million tons while forecast China corn exports are lowered 500,000 tons to 3.0 million tons. U.S. exports are projected higher due to anticipated higher demand in South Korea and Egypt. For China, sizable exports have failed thus far to materialize as expected.
Projected U.S. sorghum exports are raised to 4.8 million tons for 1998/99 and 5.2 million tons in 1999/2000.
Forecast U.S. barley exports are lowered to 600,000 tons in 1998/99, a 20-year low.
Projected Canadian barley exports in 1998/99 are down 100,000 tons to 1.2 million tons and in 1999/2000 lowered 300,000 tons to 1.2 million tons. Canada oats exports for 1998/99 and 1999/2000 are lowered to 1.3 million tons and 1.2 million tons, respectively. Changes to Canada grain export estimates for 1998/99 are made due to a slower than expected export pace and for 1999/2000 because of lower production prospects.
Forecast Hungarian corn exports are raised to 1.5 million tons for 1998/1999 and a record 2.0 million metric tons for 1999/2000.
South Korea corn imports in 1998/99 are up 250,000 to 7.3 million tons and up 300,000 tons to 8 million tons in 1999/2000. Imports for 1998/99 are larger than expected earlier, and this stronger pace will likely continue in 1999/2000. Egypt 1998/99 corn imports are raised 250,000 tons to 3.5 million tons. India imported corn in 1998/99 for the first time in 10 years and imports are forecast at 100,000 tons. U.S. Export Sales in its report dated June 10 showed 30,000 tons in outstanding sales.
Saudi Arabia barley imports are lowered to 4.8 million tons in 1998/99 and to 5.0 million tons in 1999/2000, based on reports that Government stock sales will compete with imports.
Mexico sorghum imports are raised for 1998/99 to 2.9 million tons and 3.3 million tons in 1999/2000.
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