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WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The 1999 forecast for global rice trade is increased nominally to 21.9 million tons. World rice production in 1998/99 is raised 3.4 million tons (rough basis) above the previous estimate, while global stocks are increased by only 600,000. The increase in production is attributed primarily to a revision to India’s Rabi (summer) crop. Despite an additional month-to-month increase to global production and ending stocks, both totals are still well below last year’s record levels.
Though Asian prices have fluctuated throughout the month, overall world prices have been relatively flat as sluggish demand from key importers continues. Thai 100B price quotes dipped to $239 per ton this month, but rebounded to $248 in recent weeks due mostly to the strengthening of the Baht, the Thai currency. U.S. prices softened near the end of the month. Both U.S. long grain export quotes and Thai 100B quotes are nearly $80 per ton lower than one year ago.
Exporters
Forecast China rice exports are increased to 1.75 million tons in calendar year 1999, up 250,000 tons owing to stronger than expected exports during the first quarter of the marketing year.
Importers
The 1999 rice import estimate for Eastern Europe is increased due to revised trade data for previous years in Poland and Romania, trade is expected increase to 75,000 and 50,000 respectively in each country.
Download the rice tables in:
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