May 1999 Edition
Supplies in the major wheat exporters are projected to remain at 10-year highs, while coarse grain exporter availabilities are projected to reach the highest level on record. Global grain consumption is anticipated to achieve a fourth consecutive record, while total grain production is preliminarily projected to slip for the third year in a row, resulting in slightly lower world grain stocks.
Given record use projections and a mild stocks downturn, the global wheat ending stocks-to-use ratio is the third lowest level on record, and only slightly above the 1995/96 record low. However, exporter availabilities are 20 percent higher for 1999/2000 than in 1995/96, and global import demand, while rising year-to-year, is projected below the average level of the 1990's, dampening prospects for significant short-term price rebounds.
The outlook for coarse grains also points to ample supplies among exporters. In contrast to wheat, however, global consumption (project at a record level) will fall short of global production, resulting in rising stockpiles. Coupled with only a marginal increase in global import demand, initial prospects for bullish coarse grain prices appear dim.
World and U.S. Grain Overview
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries
**Special production note for the May 1999 Publication**
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed Contact List
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