WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The forecast for global rice trade in calendar year 1999 is increased marginally this month, to 21.7 million tons. 1998/99 production is raised 600,000 tons from the previous estimate, and global ending stocks are increased to 46.2 million tons. The increase in production and stocks is due to revisions in the EU and Latin America. Despite the month-to-month increase in the ending stocks estimate, global stocks are still expected to be over 6 million tons lower than the previous year.
Asian rice prices continued to move lower throughout March and early April, as languid demand from Asian importers overshadowed the slight increase in buying interest in the Middle East. Quotes for Thai 100B fell by nearly $30 per ton, to about $244 per ton by the second week of April. Thai prices are now at the lowest level since July 1994. U.S. prices also softened a bit over the past month. U.S. long grain export quotes are currently about $60 per ton lower than one year ago.
The forecast for 1999 exports from Argentina is increased 25,000 tons to 625,000, due to expected record production.
Both the 1998 and 1999 import forecasts for Sri Lanka were reduced marginally, the former owing to reductions in expected arrivals from India, the latter due to increased crop expectations.
While there are no changes to trade estimates for the EU this month, a revision in production estimates has resulted in the second largest crop on record. Despite record consumption expectations, carryout stocks in 1998/99 are anticipated to rise to record levels.
Download the rice tables in:
Adobe Acrobat Format
Lotus Spreadsheet Format
Return to Table of Contents