WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The global coarse grain trade forecast for 1998/99 is lowered to 89.7 million tons, a slight reduction from the previous month. The global production estimate in 1998/99 is down 0.6 million to 878.1 million tons. Forecast global consumption for 1998/99 is down 2.3 million to 873.2 million tons and ending stocks are forecast up as well by 2.0 million to 140.4 million tons.
Forecast 1998/99 world corn trade is lowered to 63.9 million tons, down 100,000 tons. Forecast trade in barley for 1998/99 is projected down slightly at 15.1 million tons, from 15.2 million tons last month. There are no adjustments to forecast sorghum and oats trade for 1998/99. Global rye trade forecasts are lowered by 100,000 tons to 2.0 million tons for 1998/99.
Forecast Indonesian corn exports are lowered 150,000 tons owing to an expected sharp decline in Malaysia import demand.
United States barley export forecasts for 1998/99 are reduced to 700,000 tons, down 100,000 tons from last month due to a slower than expected export pace.
Projected Canada barley exports are lowered by 100,000 tons to 1.3 million tons, reflecting a slower than expected export pace. Canadas rye exports are projected lower by 100,000 tons.
The Australia barley export forecast is increased by 100,000 tons to 2.8 million tons due to a higher than expected export pace.
Forecast Malaysia corn imports for 1998/99 are lowered by 400,000 tons to 2.1 million tons based on the reduction of the swine herd as the Government battles a disease outbreak.
Corn imports by Colombia and Ecuador are forecast to increase to 1.7 million tons and 300,000 tons respectively in 1998/99. Higher import forecasts are due mainly to decreases in estimated production.
United States barley imports are forecast down 150,000 tons to 600,000 tons while corn imports are forecast up 75,000 tons from last months estimate to 325,000 tons.
Projected Morocco barley imports are up 100,000 tons to 500,000 tons due to reports of heavy purchases. Estimates for Brazil barley imports are lowered 100,000 tons due to higher expected production.
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