March 1999 Edition
U.S. Corn Export Prospects Up
Since September 1998, the U.S. corn export forecast for 1998/99 has risen 5.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons. Lower crop prospects in Argentina and South Africa account for 4.0 million tons of the increase in U.S. corn exports. The remaining 1.0 million tons increase is due to donations to Russia and a slight rebound in Asian demand.
Projected world trade gains have accrued to the United States rather than China, as the central government has thus far been unwilling to pay the high export subsidies necessary in the low priced world market. This year, the United States is expected to garner 72 percent of world corn trade compared to 59 percent in 1997/98, representing an 8.3 million ton year-to-year increase. Despite this rise, U.S. ending stocks will be the largest since 1992/93 because of successive large U.S. harvests. In contrast, estimated carry out stocks outside the United States, China, and Argentina will drop to a seven year low. If import demand should rise, overall tighter supplies in other countries may be beneficial to the United States or China where stocks have grown.
Foreign Countries' Policies and Programs
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
Grain and Feed Contact List
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