March 1999 Edition

U.S. Corn Export Prospects Up

Since September 1998, the U.S. corn export forecast for 1998/99 has risen 5.0 million tons to 46.0 million tons. Lower crop prospects in Argentina and South Africa account for 4.0 million tons of the increase in U.S. corn exports. The remaining 1.0 million tons increase is due to donations to Russia and a slight rebound in Asian demand.

Projected world trade gains have accrued to the United States rather than China, as the central government has thus far been unwilling to pay the high export subsidies necessary in the low priced world market. This year, the United States is expected to garner 72 percent of world corn trade compared to 59 percent in 1997/98, representing an 8.3 million ton year-to-year increase. Despite this rise, U.S. ending stocks will be the largest since 1992/93 because of successive large U.S. harvests. In contrast, estimated carry out stocks outside the United States, China, and Argentina will drop to a seven year low. If import demand should rise, overall tighter supplies in other countries may be beneficial to the United States or China where stocks have grown.

Executive Summary

Foreign Countries' Policies and Programs

• Canada's increased feed use of barley is making up for declining exports.

• Latin America's recovery from El Nino reduces prospects for U.S. rice exports in 1999.

• Inadequate grain storage space in France is having a disruptive market impact.

• India is the world's largest pulse importer but it also leads in production, which is declining.

Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data

• Wheat
• Rice
• Coarse Grains

Historical Data Tables: Selected Regions and Countries

• Adobe Acrobat Format
• Lotus Spreadsheet Format

General Footnotes for Grain Tables

Grain and Feed Contact List

Data in this report is available in both Adobe Acrobat and Lotus 123 formats. You may need to Get the Adobe Acrobat Reader.

Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003