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WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The global coarse grain trade forecast for 1998/99 is increased to 90.0 million tons for 1998/99, an increase of 1.0 million tons over the previous month. The global production estimate in 1998/99 is down 2.2 million tons to 878.7 million tons. Global consumption for 1998/99 is forecast 600,000 million tons up this month to 875.5 million tons and ending stocks are expected to fall 3.0 million tons to 138.4 million tons.
Forecast 1998/99 world corn trade is increased to 64.0 million tons, up 800,000 tons. Forecast trade in barley for 1998/99 rose 175,000 tons this month to 15.2 million tons. The global rye trade estimate is increased by 100,000 tons to reach 2.1 million for 1998/99. The 1998/99 oat trade estimate is up slightly to 2.2 million tons. Trade is sorghum remains unchanged at 6.6 million tons for 1998/99.
Exporters
The United States corn export forecast increased 2.0 million tons this month to 46.0 million tons raising estimated U.S. market share of world corn trade to 72%. The expected boost in U.S. corn exports results from a decrease in export competition and increased global imports.
Forecast South African corn exports are expected to reach only 750,000 tons in 1998/99, down 1.0 million tons from the previous month’s estimate. The South African production estimate is reduced 2.0 million tons, to 7.0 million in 1998/99, resulting from hot, dry conditions.
The 1997/98 South African corn export estimates were revised downward to 1.0 million tons based on recently acquired monthly customs data.
Forecast 1998/99 Turkish rye exports are raised to 100,000 tons and oats to 15,000 tons, respectively, from zero due to the announcement by its grain marketing agency, TMO, of successful export tenders.
Estimated Ukraine barley exports are raised 75,000 tons to 575,000 tons for 1998/99, due to a higher than expected export pace.
Hungary barley export estimates for 1998/99 are raised by 100,000 tons.
Hungarian corn exports for the year 1996/97 were revised upward by more than 500,000 tons, to 828,000 tons.
Importers
Mexico is expected to import 4.8 million tons of corn in 1998/99, an increase of 500,000 tons, owing to a forecast decline in both sorghum and corn production.
Forecast Israeli corn imports increased 100,000 tons to 600,000 tons.
South African corn imports are forecast up 150,000 tons to 300,000 tons, as corn millers move to replace declining domestic supplies.
Projected 1998/99 barley imports for Algeria and Morocco are raised to 300,000 tons and 400,000 tons respectively.
Belarus barley imports are lowered from 200,000 to 100,000 tons in 1998/99 due to Ukraine’s reported barley sales outside the former USSR countries.
Barley imports for 1998/99 are forecast higher for the Czech Republic to 225,000 tons, up 100,000 tons due to lower reported production and, consequently, higher import demand.
Download the coarse grains tables in:
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