Due to a recent sale of Government stocks, projected Polish rye exports for 1998/99 are raised from zero to 100,000 tons.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW
Global wheat trade in 1998/99 is projected at 95.8 million tons, 4.5 million tons lower than the 1997/98 level. World production is forecast to be 586 million tons, down 23 million tons from last years record. A decrease of 4 million tons is expected in Argentina, while Canadas crop is forecast unchanged from the previous year. A record harvest (over 103 million tons) is expected in the European Union while Australias crop is projected up almost 2 million tons and production in the United States is forecast to exceed last years bumper harvest by 2 million tons. Lower import demand is mostly attributed to higher production in several key import markets, including most of North Africa, Iran, and Pakistan. Global consumption is forecast to reach record levels and for the first time in three years, is projected to exceed production, drawing down ending stocks by 9.6 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio at 21.5 is down nearly 2 percentage points from a year earlier.
Global rice trade in calendar year 1999 is forecast at 21 million tons, a 6.3 million ton decline from the record level of 1998. The reduced level of trade is primarily due to lower demand from Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brazil. After El Niņo-reduced crops led to record demand from these key importers in 1998, a return to "normal" weather is expected to dramatically reduce import needs in 1999. However, world production is forecast to fall to 559 million tons (rough basis), a nine million ton decline from the record level of 1997/98. The decline in global production is mainly due to smaller crops in China and India. The smaller crops in these two countries, coupled with their heavy export programs of 1997/98, is expected to reduce their stock levels by a combined 6.8 million tons, leading global rice stocks to decline to the lowest level in 16 years.
Forecast global coarse grain trade for 1998/99 is nearly 89.0 million tons, an increase of 2.4 million tons over the 1997/98 level. Global consumption of coarse grains is expected to increase 1.5 million tons in 1998/99, to 874.9 million tons. Global production, however, is expected to decrease to 880.8 million tons in 1998/99, a marginal reduction from 1997/98. Production rebounds in the U.S. and China offset the 30.0 million ton slump in coarse grain production across the former USSR. Global stocks are forecast to expand by 6.0 million tons in 1998/99, to 141.3 million tons.
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