WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Forecast global coarse grain trade for 1998/99 is increased 1.5 million tons this month to nearly 89.0 million tons. Global production is projected up slightly this month at 880.8 million tons. The world coarse grain consumption estimate is reduced to 874.9 for 1998/99.
Global corn trade estimates increased by 1.4 million tons this month, to 63.2 million tons for 1998/99. Forecast trade in rye for 1998/99 rose to almost 2.0 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons compared to last months forecast. Trade in the other coarse grains remains unchanged this month at 15.1 million tons of barley, 6.6 million tons of sorghum, and 2.1 million tons of oats.
The outlook for United States corn brightened with forecast exports in 1998/99 up by 500,000 tons this month to 44.0 million tons, due to an expected increase in import demand by key U.S. markets -- Japan and South Korea. However, projected 1998/99 United States sorghum exports are reduced to 4.6 million tons, down 200,000 tons, owing to an anticipated Japanese substitution of other feed grains for sorghum.
Eastern European corn export estimates are increased for 1998/99 based on current export pace. The Hungarian corn export forecast is raised 400,000 tons to 1.2 million tons, increasing the export estimate to nearly the 1997/98 record level. Similarly, Romanian corn exports are increased this month to 400,000 tons for 1998/99, up from 200,000.
Canadian corn exports are expected to increase in 1998/99 to 450,000 tons, due to larger exports to the United States. Forecast 1998/99 Canadian barley exports are projected lower at 1.4 million tons, down 200,000 tons; and, Canadian oats exports are lowered 100,000 tons to 1.4 million, reflecting a slower than expected export pace.
Forecast Thai corn exports are increased to 100,000 tons in 1998/99, despite a decrease in domestic production.
Argentine sorghum exports are forecast up 100,000 tons for 1998/99 to 1.3 million tons stimulated by increased sales to Japan.
Australian sorghum exports are forecast to rise to 350,000 tons in 1998/99, an increase of 100,000 tons, due to an expected increase in domestic production. Australias 1998/99 barley exports are also projected higher at 2.7 million tons, up 200,000 tons over last months estimate.
EU oats exports are raised 100,000 tons to 550,000 tons as the EU Commission increased quantities for Swedish and Finnish export tenders.
Due to the sale of Government stocks, projected Polish rye exports for 1998/99 are raised from zero to 100,000 tons.
Corn imports by United States are estimated to rise in 1998/99 to 250,000 tons due to increased purchases from Canada.
Japanese corn imports are increased 500,000 tons to 16.0 million tons; South Korean corn imports are forecast up 500,000 tons to 7.0 million tons; and Malaysian corn imports are expected to rise by 200,000 tons, to 2.5 million tons.
China is forecast to import 350,000 tons of corn in 1998/99, a three-year high, based upon higher than expected level of imports during the first quarter of the October/September marketing year. Projected Chinese rye imports were raised to 350,000 tons, up from 150,000 tons, due to larger than expected purchases from the EU.
Estimated Brazilian corn imports are reduced 200,000 tons for 1998/99 to 1.3 million tons. As a result of the recent currency devaluation, imported grain has become more expensive.
The Philippines corn import forecast is lowered to 175,000 tons in 1998/99 from 455,000 in 1997/98 due to increased production.
Projected Israeli sorghum imports are raised to 300,000 for 1998/99 to reflecting the pace to date. Morocco is expected to import 50,000 tons of sorghum in 1998/99, only the third time in ten years.
Forecast 1998/99 Algerian and Moroccan barley imports were raised to 250,000 tons and 350,000 tons, respectively. Forecast barley imports by Jordan were raised to 300,000 tons as well.
Forecast Tunisian barley imports were lowered by 200,000 tons (to 300,000 tons,) to reflect the slow import pace while the Tunisian corn import estimate rose to 400,000 tons, up 50,000 tons for 1998/99.
Estimates of Russian barley imports for 1998/99 were lowered to 200,000 tons, from 500,000 tons, as the continued economic slowdown and currency devaluation has cut malting use and reduced the need for malting grade imports.
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