WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
For 1998/99 forecast trade for coarse grains is virtually unchanged from last months estimate at 87.8 million tons. Global consumption of coarse grains for 1998/99 is projected at 879 million tons, down one million tons from last months estimate. Stock estimates for 1998/99 are up at 138.4 million tons or 3.2 million tons higher than 1997/98.
Estimated trade in corn is down slightly this month to 63.2 million tons for 1997/98 and 62.0 million tons for 1998/99. Forecast barley trade for 1998/99 is 15.2 million tons, unchanged this month. Sorghum trade in 1998/99 is increased marginally to 6.6 million tons. Oats trade is up slightly this month to 2.1 million tons. Rye trade is unchanged at 1.9 million tons in 1998/99.
Forecast United States corn exports are boosted 1.0 million tons to 43.5 million tons in 1998/99 due to an expected reduction in corn exports from Argentina. This forecast is 5.8 million tons greater than the 1997/98 level of US corn exports. Thus far, the export pace is 2.3 million tons greater during the first two months of the 1998/99 October/September marketing year compared to the same period last year.
Argentine corn export estimates are reduced 1.5 million tons to 9.0 million in 1998/99 owing to decreased production as cropland once planted with corn is converted to soybeans due to drought conditions during planting this fall and an increase in the price ratio between the two commodities. An increase in domestic consumption in Argentina is another factor driving corn exports down.
Expectations for South African 1998/99 corn exports are raised 250,000 tons to 1.75 million tons as corn production is forecast to increase.
Projected Turkish barley exports for 1998/99 are raised 200,000 tons, to 1.4 million tons which, if achieved, would be a record.
Estimated Australian barley exports are lowered 200,000 tons to 2.5 million tons for 1998/99 due to lower production prospects.
EU oat exports for 1998/99 are raised 200,000 tons, to 450,000 tons, on the expected higher U.S. imports.
Sudanese sorghum exports are estimated to rise three-fold in 1998/99 to 150,000 tons, a four-year high. The Sudanese Government recently lifted its ban on exports of grain sorghum. Historically, Sudan sends the majority of its sorghum to Europe.
Corn import forecasts are raised for 1998/99 in Egypt 250,000 tons to 3.3 million tons, and in Peru 200,000 to 1.2 million tons, based upon revised historical trade and consumption patterns.
Corn import forecasts are lowered for 1998/99 in Canada by 450,000 tons to 750,000 tons due to a sharply higher crop, and in South Africa by 100,000 tons to 150,000 tons due to an expected increase in domestic availability.
Oats trade is up slightly in 1998/99 this month to 2.1 million tons, reflecting increased anticipated imports by the United States.
For rye trade in 1998/99, increased competition from substitutes has decreased projected South Korea imports to 100,000 tons, down from 500,000 tons while prospective EU food aid donations have increased forecast Russian rye imports to 600,000 tons. Russia will likely mill the rye for use in bread baking.
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