WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The forecast for global coarse grains trade in 1998/99 stands at 87.7 million tons, up from last months estimate and nearly 1 million tons higher that the 1997/98 trade levels. The 1.2 million ton increase since last month, is due largely to increased exports of barley by the EU resulting from an increased demand for barley by Saudi Arabia. Increased imports of 500,000 tons of corn by Russia as part of U.S. concessional sales also boosts the coarse grains trade estimate.
The 1998/99 barley trade estimate is up 600,000 this month to 15.2 million tons. Forecast corn trade is 500,000 tons higher this month at 62.2 million tons. Sorghum trade is forecast only slightly higher, while Oats and Rye trade forecasts remain unchanged.
Global coarse grain consumption for 1998/99 is projected to reach 879.6 million tons. This consumption estimate is above the 1997/98 level, but is a decline of 800,000 tons from last months consumption forecast. Global coarse grain stocks are expected to rise in 1998/99 to 139.2 million tons.
Forecast United States corn exports are increased 500,000 tons this month to 42.5 million tons in 1998/99 reflecting a P.L. 480, Title 1 concessional sale to Russia.
European Union barley exports in 1998/99 are forecast to rise 1.0 million tons this month to 7.25 million owing to increased demand for barley in Saudi Arabia. The EU is estimated to export 100,000 tons of sorghum in 1998/99, which will be the first sorghum exports since 1992/93.
Canadian barley exports are forecast to decline to 1.6 million tons in 1998/99, down 150,000 tons from the previous months estimate, due to strong domestic demand.
The Australian barley exports are estimated to fall by 300,000 tons to 2.7 million tons in 1998/99 due to a weather-related decline in production and quality.
Forecast United States barley imports for 1998/99 is decreased this month to 750,000 tons.
Russian corn imports are expected to rise in 1998/99 by 500,000 tons due to P.L. 480, Title 1 concessional sales from the U.S., increasing total forecast Russian corn imports to 650,000 tons.
Estimated Saudi Arabian barley imports are raised by 1.0 million for 1998/99 due to increased demand, bringing the total barley import estimate for Saudi Arabia to 5.0 million.
Estimated barley imports by Cyprus are down to 200,000 in 1998/99 from a forecast 400,000 last month, but import levels are still estimated to top the 1997/98 forecast.
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