October 1998 Edition
Russia's Grain Supply Tightens
Russia in 1998/99 must cope with a staggering 35 percent year to year drop in forecast grain availability. This projected 22.5 million ton reduction comes after several years of stock drawdowns due to weather related production volatility and a virtual absence of imports. Russia faces the current shortfall with carryin stocks down one-third from levels of only three years ago.
Consumers in urban areas have seen overall food availability tighten as processed food imports have ground to a halt since the August currency devaluation. Reduced purchasing power will likely cause consumers to shift to cheaper basic foods such as bread. Furthermore, the present grain market supply shock reportedly has slowed internal grain movement with very little wheat, in particular, being traded.
In 1995/96 and 1996/97 grain supplies became scarce resulting in domestic grain prices rising above world levels. The even tighter supply situation this year sets the stage for even higher domestic price increases over the next several months.
Foreign Countries' Policies and Programs
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables
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General Footnotes for Grain Tables
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