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WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
For 1998/99 forecast trade for coarse grains is down slightly from last month’s estimate at 86.5 million tons. Total estimated coarse grain trade is 86.9 million tons for 1997/98. Global consumption of coarse grains for 1998/99 is projected at 880.4 million tons, down 6.4 million tons from last month’s estimate. Stock estimates for 1998/99 are up at 137.3 million tons or 2.5 million tons higher than 1997/98.
Estimated trade in corn is down slightly this month to 63.6 million tons for 1997/98 and 61.7 million tons for 1998/99. Forecast barley trade for 1998/99 is 14.6 million tons, up 200,000 tons this month, more than 1.2 million tons higher than the 1997/98 level.
Exporters
Corn exports from the United States are increased 1.0 million tons this month to 42.0 million in 1998/99 due to forecast lower competition from Argentina. United States barley exports were raised in 1997/98 and 1998/99 by 200,000 tons each to 1.1 million tons and 900,000 tons, respectively.
Canada barley exports for 1998/99 were estimated lower at 1.75 million tons, down from 2.0 million tons due to reduced production.
Argentina corn exports were projected lower by 1.5 million tons to 10.5 million tons in 1998/99 to reflect expected reductions in planted acreage for corn. For 1997/98, Argentina corn exports also were lowered 1.0 million tons from 14.0 to 13.0 million tons to reflect a weaker than expected export pace at the end of the marketing year.
Estimated Australian barley exports were raised 200,000 tons to 2.7 million tons for 1997/98 but were unchanged at 3.0 million tons for 1998/99.
European Union barley exports were raised 750,000 tons for 1998/99 reflecting an increased competitive outlook. European Union oat exports were forecast to fall from 500,000 to 250,000 tons reflecting poor production in Finland and Sweden.
Russia barley exports for 1998/99 are reduced 350,000 tons to 150,000 tons to reflect lower domestic availability from a poor crop year.
Importers
Projected United States oat imports for 1998/99 are down 200,000 tons due to reduced Scandinavian availabilities.
Barley imports by China are forecast higher for 1998/99 to 2.0 million tons, up 200,000 tons from last month’s estimate.
Korea corn imports for 1998/99 were estimated lower by 500,000 tons to 6.5 million tons, reflecting greater projected use of feed wheat and other corn substitutes, as well as slowing demand for compound feed.
European Union corn imports for 1997/98 were projected 300,000 tons higher at 1.9 million tons this month, based on new record level Argentine exports to that region.
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