WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
For 1998/99 forecast trade for coarse grains is down slightly from last months estimate at 87.3 million tons. Total estimated coarse grain trade is 88.1 million tons for 1997/98. Global consumption of coarse grains for 1998/99 is projected at 886.8 million tons, down 2.0 million tons from last months estimate, but still a record. Stock estimates for 1998/99 are up at 139.9 million tons, up slightly from last month, and are 7.6 million tons higher than 1997/98.
Estimated trade in corn is up slightly this month to 64.3 million tons for 1997/98 and 62.5 million tons for 1998/99. Barley trade for 1998/99 is forecast down more than 1 million tons to 14.4 million this month. However, 1998/99 barley trade is still forecast to expand by more than 1.0 million tons from 1997/98 level.
Corn exports from the United States are increased 500,000 tons to 38.0 million tons in 1997/98 to reflect a stronger than expected export pace. U.S. corn export estimates for 1998/99 are increased 500,000 tons to 41.0 million tons due to production decreases in Mexico and slight export forecast decreases for competitors.
Argentine corn exports for 1998/99 are reduced 500,000 tons to 12.0 million tons, reflecting a forecasted drop in production.
Australian barley exports are lowered 300,000 tons to 2.5 million tons for 1997/98 but raised 350,000 tons to 3.0 million tons for 1998/99.
European Union barley exports are lowered 500,000 tons for 1997/98 and 1.0 million tons for 1998/99 reflecting a slow export pace this year and reduced demand by major importers.
Russia barley exports are reduced 250,000 tons to 500,000 tons to reflect lower domestic availability from a poor crop year.
Mexico corn imports are forecast up 750,000 tons in 1998/99 to 4.3 million metric tons.
Saudi Arabia barley imports are lowered 500,000 tons for 1997/98 to 3.5 million tons and reduced 1.0 million tons to 4.0 million tons for 1998/99.
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