WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Total estimated coarse grain trade is unchanged for 1997/98 at 88.4 million tons, while forecast 1998/99 trade is raised 200,000 tons this month, to 88.2 million. Global consumption is projected lower in 1998/99, down 3.0 million tons but still a record at 888.8 million.
Estimated trade in corn, rye, and oats is essentially unchanged this month, while 1997/98 sorghum trade is expected higher (by 250,000 tons) at 7.2 million tons. 1998/99 barley trade is forecast up 200,000 tons to 15.5 million tons.
Sorghum exports by Argentina are expected to reach 1.45 million tons in 1997/98 (up 250,000 tons), the highest level since 1986/87. Despite heavy exports of corn, wheat and soybeans, Argentina has shipped out more than 1 million tons of sorghum since March 1.
Exports of barley by Turkey are estimated at 1.0 million tons in 1997/98, an increase of 200,000 tons. Large subsidized Turkish exports, along with heavy shipments by EU and Black Sea competitors, have limited the sales of other major exporters such as Australia (now expected to export 2.8 million tons, a 200,000 tons reduction) and Canada (now estimated at 2.4 million tons, down 100,000). In 1998/99 reduced production is expected to limit exports by Russia (now forecast at 750,000 tons, down 250,000) and allow slightly higher Australian exports ( up 150,000 tons to 2.65 million).
Imports of corn by Canada are estimated at a record 1.5 million tons in 1997/98 (an increase of 300,000 tons), with 1998/99 imports forecast up 200,000 tons, to 1.2 million.
Mexicos sorghum imports are expected to reach 3.25 million tons in 1997/98, an increase of 250,000 tons, and the highest level in five years.
Forecast oats imports by the United States were lowered to 1.85 million tons for both 1997/98 (down 100,000 tons) and 1998/99 (down 50,000).
Corn imports by Brazil are expected up 200,000 tons, at 1.2 million tons, while imports by Chile are up 150,000 tons, to 900,000. However, Venezuelan imports are down 150,000 tons to 1.05 million tons, a 200,000 year-to-year decline.
Estimated 1997/98 corn imports by the EU were lowered from 2.0 million to 1.6 million tons this month. Forecast 1998/99 imports were raised from 2.25 to 2.5 million tons on the expectation that mandated 1998 corn imports will be delayed until later in the year or early in 1999.
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