July 1998 Edition
1999 Rice Trade Projected to
Fall from 1998 Record
as El Niņo-Related Import Demand Subsides
World rice trade in 1999 is projected to reach 20.2 million tons, down 3.2 million tons from the record level forecast for 1998, but still the third highest level on record. The decline is due to an expected production rebound in the importer countries that are driving 1998 trade to record levels. The departure of the El Niņo weather phenomenon that devastated the 1997/98 crops in Indonesia, the Philippines, and parts of Latin America will allow producers in these countries to respond with significant production increases, thus dramatically reducing their import demand. Meanwhile, continued strong production is projected for all of the major exporters, which will likely lead to higher ending stocks.
As demand slows, rice prices could again experience downward pressure from the effects of the precarious Asian economic situation. It was the strong import demand from Indonesia and the Philippines that revived rice prices after the Asian currency devaluations of 1997.
Foreign Countries' Policies and Programs
Situation and Outlook: Commentary and Current Data
Historical Data Tables:
General Footnotes for Grain Tables
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