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WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
U.S. wheat prices (#2 HRW FOB Gulf) have moved $2-3 higher into March, supported by the recent Indian purchase and reports that Australia is sold out of the 1997/98 crop. Export prices as of mid-March are quoted about $145 for nearby shipment compared to $178 in March the previous year.
World wheat trade is up nearly one million tons from last month’s estimate, to 99.2 million tons, and remains the highest volume in four years. The upward revision in India’s consumption and the commensurate decline in stocks account for the changes in global consumption and stocks.
Exporters
Australia is expected to export 15.5 million tons (up 1 million tons from last month) based on recent sales and commitments to India and other traditional buyers.
Importers
The import forecast for India is raised 1.5 million tons, to 2.5 million tons due to the recent purchases. Also, Iraq’s imports are expected to reach 2.5 million tons. Import forecasts for Iran and Bangladesh are lowered 500,000 and 200,000 tons respectively based on a slower import pace to date.
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