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This report provides the data and tables from the current GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE, PART TWO. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates 329 December 11.
This report was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, FAS. Agbox 1048, 14th and Independence Ave. Washington DC 20250. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, by calling (202) 720-6219, or by FAX (202) 720-0340.
The next issue of the Grains circular will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on January 14, 1998.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SITUATION/OUTLOOK
The projection for wheat imported into the United States is cut by 150,000 tons.
The United States corn export forecast for 1997/98 was reduced this month by one million tons, to 47.5 million, due to increased competition.
The 1997 rice import forecast for Indonesia was raised to 750,000 tons as recent purchases for nearby shipment now appear likely to move before the end of the year.
The wheat export forecasts for Canada and Argentina are raised one half million tons and 300,000 tons, respectively, on increases in projected production.
Pakistan wheat purchases to date, coupled with remaining credit available, allow the import forecast to move upward by 500,000 tons, to 4.0 million tons.
The forecast of 1997/98 corn exports by Hungary was increased this month from 500,000 tons to 1.2 million. It is expected that Hungarian export shipments will reach about 200,000 tons per month until export licenses expire at the end of March.
The 1997 rice export forecast for China was increased 900,000 tons, as Chinese rice exports continue at a strong pace. Meanwhile, the 1997 Chinese rice import forecast was lowered to 500,000 tons.
Barley exports by Australia are now forecast to reach 2.7 million tons in 1997/98, an increase of 300,000 tons from the previous forecast, due to an increase in projected production.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
Indonesia moves toward freeing wheat sector as part of IMF economic reform package.
The rising share of U.S. rough rice exports is helping secure Latin American markets.
A Philippine policy shift from self-sufficiency to food security should bolster grain imports.
Relaxed rice procurement in Burma could have big impact on production and exports.
WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW
WHEAT
The global production of wheat is projected to exceed 600 million tons for the first time in history, while China and the former Soviet Union, once the world's largest importers of wheat, remain all but absent from the international market. Abundant supply and the diminished risk of sudden, large-scale purchases is expected to keep the global trade in wheat essentially stagnant for the third consecutive year as importers seeking price advantages continue their practice of hand-to-mouth buying. Production will exceed consumption for the second year in a row, allowing for a significant recovery of the global stocks-to-use ratio. While import demand has softened as it became less concentrated, the exportable supplies necessary to maintain the current high rate of global consumption remain dependant upon continued high production.
RICE
Global rice trade in calendar year 1998 is projected at 19.2 million tons, a one million ton increase over the estimated 1997 level, and the third highest level on record. World rice production (rough basis) in 1997/98 is forecast at a record 567 million tons. The world's two largest rice producers - China and India - are forecast to produce records crops in 1997/98. The major exporters also appear likely to see strong production and increased exportable supplies in 1998. Exports from Thailand, Vietnam, and the United States are all forecast to increase from the previous year. Meanwhile, strong import demand is expected from Indonesia, the Philippines and several Latin American countries in early 1998 due to adverse weather conditions affecting the 1997/98 crops in these locations.
COARSE GRAINS
Global coarse grains trade is now forecast at 91.6 million tons, down slightly from the previous month's estimate. Forecast world trade levels for the individual grains are unchanged from last month except for barley. Barley trade is now forecast at 16.5 million tons, versus the previous estimate of 16.7. Several major changes were made, however, in market share for exporters of both corn and barley. In the corn market, forecast U.S. exports were reduced by one million tons while export estimates for Hungary and South Africa were raised by 700,000 and 300,000 tons respectively. Among barley exporters, forecast Australian exports were increased 300,000 tons while the export forecast for Canada was reduced 200,000 tons and the forecast of EU exports was cut 300,000 tons.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
Indonesia Begins Liberalization Process in Wheat Sector
Effective January 1, 1998, the Government of the Republic of Indonesia--the world's fifth largest wheat importer--will begin the process of relinquishing total government control over the importation and distribution of wheat and wheat flour. This action is part of an IMF reform package designed to restore stability to the Indonesian economy and to correct policies which have led to the country's recent financial and economic crisis. BULOG (Badan Urusan Logistic), the government agency which heretofore has monopolized wheat and wheat flour imports, will begin to give up full monopoly power effective January 1, 1998. Full liberalization in the wheat and wheat flour sector will occur after a three- to five-year transition period.
No wheat is produced in Indonesia. Currently, BULOG imports all wheat and pays a milling fee to the flour mills. The four operating mills, which are dominated by P.T. Bogasari with over 90% of flour production, also keep the bran. BULOG distributes the flour at subsidized prices to licensed wholesale distributors, food processors and consumers. Effective January 1, 1998, individual flour mills will purchase wheat directly from foreign suppliers but will be required to sell all the flour milled from this wheat to BULOG. The government agency will maintain its monopoly on the distribution of flour, although food processors will have the option to import flour directly. The subsidy to consumers will be progressively decreased over the next three or perhaps five years.
A temporary import duty will be imposed on wheat flour; initially, it will be 10 percent, but will be reduced to 5 percent by 2003. As the subsidy declines and the duty on wheat flour drops, the mills could face competition from increased flour imports. It is not yet clear if the duty for wheat will remain at zero once BULOG relinquishes its control over wheat imports on January 1.
What It Means for U.S. Wheat
Lifting of import restrictions on wheat and wheat flour should result in minimal, short-term impacts for U.S. exports but longer-term opportunities in this growing wheat market (1997/98 imports are forecast at 4.5 million tons). The United States' share of Indonesia's imports normally has not exceeded 15 percent. Australia's single selling agency, proximity, and freight advantage have helped that country dominate the Indonesian wheat market, except in years like 1995/96 when the Australian crop was short. Canada has also been a major supplier to Indonesia. It seems reasonable to expect, then, that the United States will in the short run continue to have only a small share.
However, in the longer run, the new, smaller mills are likely to aim toward quality and specialty markets, potentially boosting U.S. wheat sales. If these mills are able to compete and can secure niche markets, then other foreign suppliers' wheat is likely to be needed to provide variety flour products for consumers. For example, there are small but emerging market segments requiring higher protein wheat for bread making and hamburger buns. Of course, to the degree that U.S. wheat might displace Australian wheat in Indonesia, then increased competition could be expected in other areas of the world.
How the dominant miller, Bogasari, will react to the liberalization of wheat imports is unclear. Because Bogasari is well-established, it should have a substantial competitive advantage over the new mills. As a result, Indonesian government officials are reportedly concerned about Bogasari's dominant position and the possibility of corporate takeovers.
Unanswered Questions
How quickly will BULOG reduce the subsidy on wheat flour? Will differences in quality and classes of flour be allowed to be reflected in the price? BULOG's future role: will it be downsized or merged with appropriate ministries?
The operations of BULOG in the next year, given the country's economic woes and pending elections, may provide the answers to these questions. For now, it seems that the changes--while historic--may simply represent "old wine in new bottles."
In addition to losing control over wheat and flour imports, BULOG will also be giving up its monopoly on imports of soybeans and garlic. However, the government agency will retain a tight-fisted monopoly over all aspects of the all-important rice sector and a reduced role in the sugar market.
Based on reports from the Office of Agricultural Affairs, American Embassy, Jakarta. For further information, please contact Rick O'Meara at (202) 720-4933.
U.S. Rough Rice Exports Off to Strong Start in 1997/98
Three months into the 1997/98 marketing year, the United States has already exported 107,800 tons (MT) of rough rice. An additional 355,500 MT of outstanding sales have been registered, bringing total commitments as of December 4, 1997, to 463,300 MT, rough basis. The strong first quarter export pace has been due in part to poor weather in Latin America -- the destination for all of the reported exports and sales.
Exports of rough rice are estimated to have made up 16 percent of total U.S. rice exports in marketing year 1996/97, and are forecast to make up a slightly larger share in 1997/98. This changing profile of U.S. rice exports has helped to firmly secure U.S. rice in Latin American markets. Further, this steady and reliable demand has helped to keep U.S. prices firm. This has been especially noticeable in recent months as Asian rice prices have fluctuated wildly due to currency instability. Despite the availability of cheap Asian rice and harvest-time pressure, U.S. rice prices have remained strong during recent months. While this is good news for U.S. rice farmers, U.S. millers are being squeezed as they must bid against foreign mills for rough rice, while also competing with cheap Asian rice in the milled rice export market. While it would certainly be preferable to export all milled rice so that the benefits of adding value could accrue to the U.S. milling industry, rough rice exports nonetheless benefit the industry in the long run by keeping rice production an attractive cropping alternative and building a preference for U.S. rice in Latin America.
For further information, please contact Linda Kotschwar at 202-690-1147.
U.S. Grain Exports to Benefit From Philippine Trade
Liberalization
In 1996, the Philippines began implementing its Uruguay Round commitments under the 1994 WTO accord. With the lifting of quantitative restrictions, the Philippines has established the basis for its eventual compliance with the general trade provisions of the WTO. Furthermore, there has also been a shift in agricultural policy which now generally gives priority to food security over self-sufficiency. The administration recognizes that stable food supplies and prices can best be achieved through rational production policies and trade liberalization. The new policies provide greater opportunities for U.S. grain exports to the Philippines. Though the recent policy changes have helped reduce supply and price fluctuations, the Philippines needs to further reduce its protectionist tariffs in order to bring prices down to world levels.
General Economic Overview:
The Philippines has enjoyed significant economic progress since 1994, after 15 years of population growth out pacing economic gains. Real Gross National Product (GNP) grew by 6.9 percent in 1996, and per capita GNP is estimated at $1,240. Despite the recent currency depreciation and economic woes in Asia, GNP is expected to grow by almost 6 percent in 1997.
Government intervention is regarded as the principal reason for lagging growth in the Philippines. Intervention neglected natural comparative advantages, and led to serious misallocation and underutilization of scarce capital and foreign exchange resources. The present goal among top policy-makers is to move to a free-market economy with a much reduced, more decentralized government sector and with minimal restrictions on external trade. Measures to open up the economy are also having positive effects on the balance of payments in terms of spurring export growth, attracting foreign direct and portfolio investments and increasing trade finance.
Selected Economic Data (1996):
Area: 300,000 sq. km. (slightly larger than Arizona) Land use: arable land (26%), permanent crops (11%), forest and woodland (40%), other (19%). Major agricultural products: rice, coconuts, corn, sugarcane, bananas, pineapples, mangoes Total agricultural imports (billion US$): 2.4 Major agricultural imports: wheat, rice, livestock and poultry, meat and meat products, feed grains, feedstuffs, forest products and tobacco U.S. share of total agricultural imports (percent): 34 Major agricultural exports: fats and oils, fruits and vegetables, sugar and products U.S. share of total agricultural exports (percent): 22 Agricultural trade balance with the U.S. (million US$): -450 Population (million): 70 Population growth rate (percent): 2.3 Urban population (million): 11 Real GDP (billion US$): 74 Inflation (CPI, percent): 7.6 Agriculture, as % of imports: 8.7 % of exports: 9.6 % of GDP: 21
Agricultural Overview:
Despite current strong overall economic progress, growth in the agricultural sector has been slow. The Philippine Department of Agriculture blames the poor performance on inadequate infrastructure and under-investment. A land constraint is also impeding growth as little if any undeveloped land is available for agricultural use, and in some cases land is being taken out of production due to urban expansion. Current agricultural performance is threatened by El Nino, though its impact is yet to be determined.
Although the relative importance of agriculture in the Philippine economy has declined significantly over the past 40 years, it still contributes directly to about 40 percent of total employment and more than 20 percent of the GDP. Almost 70 percent of the population lives in rural areas, with agricultural activities as the principal means of livelihood. Philippine consumers, many of whom live in poverty, spend between 50 and 60 percent of their incomes on food.
For 1996, the Philippines was again a net agricultural importer with total agricultural imports reaching US$3 billion against a US$1.8 billion export level. Since 1993, the United States has been a net agricultural exporter to the Philippines, a trend which is expected to continue with grains (rice, corn, wheat, etc.) and feedstuffs (soybean meal) the dominant commodities. With domestic production increasingly unable to fully meet local food requirements, the country has had to open its market more to gain access to imported food supplies, including staple items. This implies continued and increasing imports of inputs, particularly feed grains, to support a growing domestic livestock industry. U.S. grain exporters are likely to benefit from the lifting of quantitative restrictions and the shift in agricultural policy towards food security.
Commodity Highlights: Wheat
Production: There is no domestic wheat production in the Philippines.
Consumption: Demand for wheat as a feed ingredient has been declining as a result of the government's willingness to import corn for the livestock and poultry industries. Prior to the implementation of the Uruguay Round commitments in 1996, up to 500,000 tons of milling wheat had been funneled into feed rations annually, as food wheat imports faced only a 10 percent import tariff. As liberalization proceeds, imported corn will likely displace wheat imports utilized for animal feed production. However, this decrease will be partially offset by an increase in food demand brought about by an improving economy and growing demand. Trade: Total wheat imports are forecast to be 2.1 million tons for 1997/98. The U.S. should continue to be the dominant supplier of imported wheat to the Philippines despite increased competition from other supplying countries. U.S. wheat has an advantage over other sources in the domestic market since local end users are well acquainted with U.S. wheat varieties and their individual milling characteristics. While the United States should retain its leading market share (80-85 percent) in the near term, intense price competition from Canada, Australia, Argentina and even India could partially erode that dominance in the longer term.
Corn:
Production: Total corn production for MY 1997/98 is forecast at 4.2 MMT, down slightly from a year ago. The area to corn has declined significantly since 1990, and is close to mid-1970s levels, though yields have nearly doubled. An increase in corn production is unlikely, due to diminished growth in yield gains in recent years and fairly attractive prices for alternative crops. Inadequate storage, processing, transport, and marketing infrastructures further constrain development.
Corn is the primary source of livelihood for around one-third of rural farmers, comprised predominantly of small, semi-subsistence farmers. A large amount of corn area is planted to white corn, which is the major source of energy intakes for much of the population. However, the share of total consumption used as feed corn has grown to over 70 percent. Two-thirds of domestic corn is produced in the Mindanao Islands.
Consumption: Total corn consumption is forecast at 4.7 million tons for 1997/98, which is down slightly from previous years, and is partly due to declining food use of corn. Rising incomes have resulted in a switch from corn to rice and wheat-based foods, and this trend is likely to continue. The decline in corn as food consumption, however, has been largely offset by the surge in demand by the animal feed industries. Per capita consumption of meat, particularly poultry and pork, has been steadily growing due to rising incomes and increased supplies.
Trade: Corn imports are forecast at 500,000 tons for 1997/98. In 1996, the Philippines began implementing its Uruguay Round commitments under the 1994 WTO accord. The corn import ban was lifted and replaced with a tariff-rate quota of 130,160 tons with an in-quota tariff of 35 percent. The minimum access quota is scheduled to grow to 216,940 tons by July 1, 2004. The corn in-quota tariff will remain at 35 percent for the ten-year period, while the out-of-quota maximum tariff of 100 percent is declining to 50 percent by the end of the transition period. Out-of-quota imports are currently assessed an 80 percent tariff. In July, before recent devaluations in the Philippine peso, private traders imported about 80,000 tons at the 80 percent tariff. Currently this tariff is prohibitive. However, the government can authorize additional imports at the in-quota tariff.
For the ten years prior to the implementation of the Uruguay Round commitments in 1996, corn imports were allowed only when the government determined there was a shortage, and the timing and volume of imports was dictated by the Department of Agriculture. Despite recent import liberalization, domestic corn prices remain over twice as high as world levels. Philippine corn users estimate that the domestic shortfall exceeds one million tons. It is still considerably cheaper to use imported corn in most areas due to extremely high domestic marketing and transportation costs.
Large import volumes are expected in the future to cover the widening gap between growing demand, fueled mainly by the growing livestock and poultry industries and declining corn production. Although the United States remains the dominant supplier, greater competition can be expected in this market in the years to come, particularly from Argentina and China.
Rice:
Production: Total domestic rice production for 1997/98 is forecast at 7.3 million tons (milled basis), which is about 18 percent higher than production levels in the early 1990s. Despite expansion in rice production, it is unlikely that domestic production will ever meet demand, due to diminished yield gains in recent years, land constraints, and increasing population.
Consumption: Total rice consumption is forecast at 8.4 million tons for 1997/98, which is 30 percent higher than consumption levels during the early 1990s. Domestic rice consumption continues to grow primarily due to increasing population and relatively stable prices. Furthermore, rising incomes have resulted in a switch from corn to rice and wheat-based foods.
Trade: A severe rice shortage and public outrage at rapidly increasing food prices in 1995 prompted the Philippine Department of Agriculture to move away, in practice if not yet official pronouncements, from a policy of self-sufficiency to one of food security. Imports of nearly a million tons of rice in 1996 eased supply and price fluctuations. The Philippines is forecast to import one million tons of rice in 1997/98 in order to meet consumption demands. Vietnam and Thailand are the largest exporters of rice to the Philippines, followed by India, Myanmar, and Pakistan.
Based on reports from the Agricultural Affairs Office, American Embassy, Manila. For further information, please contact Kim Svec at (202) 720-9523.
Burma Announces New Rice Procurement System
The Government of Burma (GOB) has announced a new sealed tender bid process for the procurement of paddy rice. The new procurement system, which is effective immediately, will be implemented by Myanma Agricultural Products Trading (MAPT), an agency of the Ministry of Commerce. Although the new policy provides for no changes to the government export parastatal, Myanma Export Import Services (MEIS), the quality standards and limited private sector involvement included in the new procurement policy could significantly impact Burma's rice production and export potential.
The new procurement policy replaces a quota system in which the MAPT procured paddy directly from farmers. Under the quota system, farmers were required to supply MAPT with a certain quantity of paddy per acre at a specified, below-market price. This system provided a clear disincentive to plant rice, as farmers were under no obligation to surrender portions of competing crops to the government for less than market price. It also guaranteed that paddy delivered to the government was of the poorest quality available.
The new system frees farmers from the below-market price quota obligation and allows them to sell all of their rice at market prices. Further, the MAPT has introduced incentives for improved quality by establishing premiums for meeting export quality specifications, and requiring that paddy be delivered bagged and labeled with the supplying company name. This new focus on quality is certain to provide incentive to farmers, and could also lead to upgrading of Burma's notoriously antiquated milling industry.
Although the GOB has stated that the MAPT paddy procurement is intended for distribution to government employees, the military and institutions, the quality requirements may indicate an interest in acquiring rice for export in the coming year. Burma has been virtually absent from the world rice market in 1997 as the GOB curtailed exports in an effort to hold domestic prices down after flooding reduced production.
Based on reports from the Office of Agriculture Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok. For further information, please contact Linda Kotschwar at 202-690-1147.
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
While world trade is forecast to hit its highest volume in three years, it will remain significantly below levels reached in the early 1990's and just 2.5 percent above the 1995/96 figure. However, production is down by over 17 million tons, more than 10 percent, from 1996/97 levels in traditional exporters Argentina, Australia, Canada and the European Union, a loss which is only partially offset by a 6.6 million ton increase in the projected production in the United States. Nevertheless, exportable supply availabilities have become less of a concern in this time of overall record production. This, when coupled with the absence of large purchases from China and the former Soviet Union, has encouraged importers to adopt the practice of hand-to-mouth buying. Still, utilization is expected to continue unabated along the gradual upward trend of the past 25 years.
Exporters
Prospective production in both Argentina and Australia was raised by one-half million tons. For Argentina these additional supplies are expected to flow almost entirely into export, increasing the annual forecast by 300,000 tons, to 9.5 million tons, just short of the record 9.7 million tons shipped last year. In Australia the extra wheat is thought to be of poor quality and therefore projected to be fed domestically.
Importers
The import forecast for the United States is reduced to 2.5 million tons, the average annual import amount for the past five years. Continuing purchases and remaining amounts of credit still to be utilized now put Pakistan within reach of the 4.0 million ton import target set earlier this year. Concerns over the quality of the domestic crop in Brazil are expected to increase wheat imports by 300,000 tons. Brisk imports by Russia and Yemen suggest forecast increases of 250,000 tons and 200,000 tons, respectively. A slow pace into Iran prompts a 250,000 ton cut, leaving projected imports of 5.5 million tons for the year -- still significantly above the 3.5 million tons which were typical prior to last year's record 6.8 million tons.
WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Thai rice quotes have strengthened by about $20/MT from the first week of November to the first week of December, as the much-anticipated Indonesian buying has finally begun. The increase in Thai quote levels is particularly significant since the Thai Baht is still quite weak. Thai prices have spent the last several months moving primarily in response to currency fluctuations. In Vietnam, quotes strengthened during November as supplies have become very tight. Quotes in Pakistan gained about $10/MT as wet weather slowed arrivals of new crop to export position. Indian prices, however, have declined due to depreciation of the Rupee. Meanwhile, U.S. quotes continue to ignore the Asian activity, and remained steady in a relatively quiet market.
Exporters
The 1997 export forecast for China was raised 150,000 tons this month, to 900,000 tons. China is estimated to have carried over large stocks, and produced another large crop in 1997/98. Abundant supplies, coupled with strong demand from the Philippines and several African locations, translate into higher Chinese exports.
The forecast for 1997 rice exports by Thailand was raised 100,000 tons this month to 4.9 million tons. Exports from Thailand have continued at a strong pace, and recent Indonesian buying for nearby shipment now appears likely to move before the end of the year.
Importers
Other Asia
The 1997 import forecast for Indonesia was raised to 750,000 tons. Offtake from Government rice stocks was significantly higher than expected in November, and the higher rate of stock depletion is expected to continue into 1998. As a result, recent Indonesian purchases for near-by shipment appear likely to move before the end of the year.
The forecast for 1997 rice imports by China was lowered 100,000 tons this month. High prices for Thai fragrant rice has apparently prevented China from making large end of the year fragrant rice purchases as has been done during the past few years. As a result, 1997 rice imports for China are now estimated at 500,000 tons.
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
After peaking at $122 per ton in October, U.S. FOB corn prices have fallen steadily the past two months, averaging $121 in November, and $119 through the first week of December. In Eastern Europe, earlier sales of feed wheat, coupled with a surge in corn sales will likely continue to have a damping effect on prices. Chinese corn exports, while not augmented by any recent new sales, are apparently moving smoothly.
The forecast of world coarse grains trade is marginally lower this month, cut from 91.8 to 91.6 million tons. Despite the lower level of trade, the estimate of global coarse grains consumption is up slightly, from 899 to a record 900 million tons. World coarse grains production is also forecast higher this month, at 886 million tons versus the previous forecast of 883 million. Production in 1997/98 is forecast at the second highest level ever, trailing estimated 1996/97 production by only 20 million tons.
The forecast of world corn trade is unchanged this month. Global production now estimated at 573 million tons, the second highest level ever, behind 1996/97 production of 591 million tons. Corn consumption is forecast to reach a record 590 million tons, however, resulting in a decrease in ending stocks of 17 million tons from 1996/97. With ending stocks of 67.3 million tons, the stocks to use ratio for corn will fall to 11.4%, the lowest level ever.
World barley trade is now forecast at 16.5 million tons, a 200,000 ton reduction from the previous estimate, but still the highest trade level since 1993/94. Forecast production, consumption and ending stocks of barley are essentially unchanged this month.
Exporters
The forecast of corn exports by the United States was cut this month from 48.5 to 47.5 million tons. First quarter export inspections were the lowest in since 1986 as heavy ongoing exports by China continue to displace U.S. corn in southeast Asia and South Korea. However, it is still believed that U.S. corn export volumes will rebound as China's shipments taper off by March/April of 1998.
Hungary is now forecast to export 1.2 million tons of corn in 1997/98. Exports through November are estimated to have reached 250,000 tons and are expected to run at peak capacity of about 200,000 tons per month. Despite strong recent interest in low priced East European corn, infrastructure limitations are expected to dampen actual export levels.
Barley exports by Australia are now forecast to reach 2.7 million tons, up from 2.4 million tons, following an increase in the forecast of Australian production from 5.2 to 5.5 million tons. The increased availability of Australian barley is forecast to caused reduced demand for barley from the EU, now forecast at 6.0 million tons, down 300,000 from last month. Barley exports by Canada are forecast at 3.2 million tons, a 200,000 ton reduction from the previous estimate, due to strong domestic demand for feed barley.
Importers
Egypt is now forecast to import 3.2 million tons of corn in 1997/98. Following revisions in production and consumptions estimates for both 1996/97 and 1997/98, Egypt's corn consumption is forecast steady at 8.9 million tons. Consumption of corn in Egypt has grown by 2 million tons since 1993/94 as Egypt has emerged as one of the world's top five importers.
ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.
Current and historical data on the European Union in this issue refers to the EU-15.
Consumption statistics reflect total utilization, including food, feed, seed, and differences in marketing year imports and marketing year exports.
This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity and Marketing Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, Washington DC 20250. Information is gathered from official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attaches and Foreign Service officers, results of office research, and related information. Further information may be obtained by writing the division or telephoning (202) 720-6219.
Note: The previous report in this series was the Grain: World Markets and Trade Foreign Agricultural Service Circular FG 11-97 November 1997. For further details on the world grain production see World Agricultural Production, Foreign Agricultural Service Circular WAP 12-97 December 1997.
Principal portions of this circular are available on the World Wide Web via the Foreign Agricultural Service Home Page. The address is:
http://www.fas.usda.gov
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