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MAY 13, 1997
This report provides the data and tables from the current GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE, PART ONE.
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates
-->WASDE 326-May 12.
This report was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, FAS.
Agbox 1048, 14th and Independence Ave. Washington DC 20250.
Further information may be obtained by writing to the division,
by calling (202) 720-6219, or by FAX (202) 720-0340
The next issue of the Grains circular will be available
electronically after 3:30 pm local time on June 13.
SITUATION/OUTLOOK
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
WHEAT
Despite expectations of marginal decreases in both global
production and consumption, world wheat trade is forecast to rise
nearly four percent in 1997/98, the second largest increase in 10
years. For many nations, both traditional importers and
exporters, the nominal decline in production follows record
harvests in the 1996/97 season. Although down year-to-year, the
1997/98 estimated world production of 578 million tons still
ranks as the third-largest global wheat crop on record. However,
unlike the widely distributed bumper crop of 1996/97, the new
global crop will be characterized by more usual regional
disparities in production. Production likely will exceed
consumption for the second year in a row and by a slightly
increased margin, allowing for a moderate rebuilding of severely
depleted global stocks. But while global stocks will rise from
the prior year they remain historically low, keeping prices
strong. The global stocks-to-use ratio will increase to just 20.2
percent from the record-low 18.9 percent reached during the
1996/97 season.
RICE
Forecast 1997 world rice trade was lowered this month from
17.7 to 17.2 million tons. This reduction was spurred by
revisions to the 1997 export forecasts for India, down from 1.5
to 1.2 million tons, and Burma, down from 150,000 to 25,000 tons.
In addition to these exporter adjustments the import forecast for
the United States was raised from 285,000 to 325,000 tons.
Estimated calendar year 1996 world trade was revised from 19.3 to
19.4 million tons, still the second highest level ever.
COARSE GRAINS
The initial projection for coarse grains trade in 1997/98 is
91 million tons, up marginally from the estimate for 1996/97. For
the individual grains, world trade in corn, barley, and sorghum
is projected at 65, 15, and 6 million tons, respectively. U.S.
exports of coarse grains are expected to rise somewhat from
forecast 1996/97 levels, with flat year-to-year exports in barley
and sorghum, while corn exports are expected to grow. Import
demand from Latin America, the Middle East and Asia is expected
to remain at or near record levels.
Despite many of the 1997/98 crops not yet having been planted,
current expectations are that global production in 1997/98 will
be virtually unchanged from the prior year's records, as global
coarse grain utilization will likely rise again in 1997/98 to
record levels.
Remaining a pricing factor in 1997/98, total coarse grain stock levels are expected to increase only 3 percent to the fourth lowest level since 1983/84, primarily due to an expected increase in U.S. corn stocks. With the anticipated growth in consumption, this translates into the second lowest global stocks-to-use ratio on record in the USDA database.
Changes in Grain Import Demand Prompt
Shifts In Exporter Focus
While the shift in importer demand for wheat and coarse grains
to new markets over the past two decades has been noted by many
observers, the focus for many exporters has also changed. The
average importer of grains today has more financial resources, is
more discriminating about quality concerns, and more likely to
shift from one supplier to another as conditions dictate than the
importers of the 1970's and 1980's.
World trade in wheat and wheat products,
while at first glance quite volatile, has in fact shown signs of
relatively steady and continuing strength. Chief among the
factors resulting in year-to-year fluctuations in import demand
have been the in-and-out practices of China and the former Soviet
Union. Remove the European Union from the importer pool, and
there is a resulting group of countries that account for nearly
three-quarters of global wheat imports. Imports by this group
have grown over 70 percent over the past twenty years. This has
occurred at a time of relatively sluggish income growth
throughout much of the world. As incomes increase, prospects for
this trend to continue are even stronger. Import expansion in the
1990's has been fueled by Asia- but primarily Asia outside of
China.
Focusing on coarse grains, the picture is
even more dramatic. After fluctuations of the former Soviet
Union, and the switch from a net import to a net export position
of the European Union are factored out, import demand in the
world has shown a decidedly upward trend. Imports by Asian
nations account for most of this growth. For example, in 1975/76
only 17 percent of total U.S. corn exports were to Asian
destinations, as compared to over 60 percent in 1995/96. Imports
of other coarse grains have also grown, particulary for malting
quality barley. As incomes rise, and as urbanization increases,
diets in Asia will become more protein based, necessitating
higher consumption of coarse grains, possibly accompanied by
increased imports of meat and meat products. In either case, the
increase in demand for feed grains appears to be virtually
boundless.
Argentina
A stabilizing macroeconomic climate and less restrictive
import requirements have favored continued investment in internal
transportation and storage infrastructure over the past few
years. This permitted the country's grain sector export to record
volumes in the early months of 1997. The agricultural sector is
also benefitting from rising utilization of futures prices and
options, which should also provide stability and increased profit
potential for grains. Private banks are becoming more important
lenders to the agricultural sector, widening farmer options in
obtaining working capital at competitive rates. A recent
development in Argentina has been the grouping of farmers into
"planting pools" which allow small producers to share
resources and capital goods, thereby improving productivity by
using economies of scale.
Until the record crop of 1996/97, Argentina relied on one key
importing country to purchase its wheat--Brazil. Brazil became
Argentina's chief market in the late 1980s, when the Government
of Brazil shifted land out of wheat production and began to
privatize the wheat industry. This drastically increased the
demand for wheat and Brazil resumed a large wheat import program,
becoming a growing market for Argentine wheat. In recent years,
Brazil imported 70 percent of Argentina's export availability.
Argentina's share of the world market has doubled over the past
20 years and accounts for 11 percent of world wheat trade in
1996/97.
While Argentina does export sorghum, its primary coarse grain
export is corn. Over the past 25 years, Argentina has been the
only steady competition for U.S. corn in the world. Historically,
Argentine corn exports have been nearly as dependent on Brazil as
in the case of wheat. Recently however, Argentina has focused
corn exports in two areas: the expanding markets of Southeast
Asia (formerly dominated almost wholly by corn from the United
States and China), and Iran, where the U.S. cannot do business.
Australia
Boards dominate the export structure of Australia, both for
wheat and barley, its primary coarse grain export. For a number
of years groups of large growers and grain exporting companies
have attempted to have the power of the Australian Wheat Board
(AWB) as the monopoly exporter of Australian wheat deregulated.
This campaign has been vigorously opposed by the AWB and the
Grains Council of Australia (GCA) which have stated that any
breakdown of the single desk export responsibilities of the AWB
would not be in the long term interests of the Australian grain
industry. The Australian Government announced last year that it
wanted the AWB to pursue a more commercial focus, involving
development of a positive commercial trading record. The AWB
would thus be able to achieve a better credit rating: much needed
when Government bailout guarantees ends in 1999. While the
Australian Barley Board is not under the same political pressure,
it is reportedly making medium-term plans for operation in a more
deregulated environment.
In wheat, Australia focuses on two fundamental markets: Asia
and the Middle East. Excluding China, Australia is one of the
primary suppliers of wheat to the Asian market. Approximately 60
percent of Australia's wheat exports are sent to Asian
destinations, compared to only 20 percent in the early 1980s.
Australia is currently developing "designer wheats" for
the production of Asian noodles, and establishing joint venture
flour mills and long-term purchase agreements with importing
countries throughout Asia. These activities indicate that
Australia is confident that demand from Asian markets will remain
strong. Over the last ten years, Australia's export to the Middle
East have also been growing steadily. During this same time,
roughly one-quarter of Australia's exports have been to this
region.
For barley, Australia has two primary markets: Asia for malting quality barley, and the Middle East for feed barley. The Australian Barley Board (ABB) has been particularly successful in marketing malting barley to Chinese maltsters. The 1 million ton increase in malting barley use (accompanied by a commensurate drop in feed use) has provided ample opportunities for quality malting barley imports. Simultaneously, the ABB has taken advantage of the decline in EU shipments to the Middle East and has been successful in moving feed quality barley into numerous markets in the region.
Canada
The ripple effects of the elimination of the Western Grain
Transportation Act and other freight subsidies continue to shape
the medium term outlook for the grains sector in Canada. As
recent high prices moderate and adjustment assistance programs
end, farmers in the eastern prairies are realizing that exporting
lower grades of wheat and barley is more than likely a losing
proposition once the full cost freight is considered. The
reduction in the incentive to export has provided a counter
incentive to the farm and agribusiness sector to develop
infrastructure and other means to facilitate the local
utilization of grain; expansion of hog production in Manitoba
being an example. At the farm level, this may mean greater
emphasis in the future upon production of higher yielding
varieties of wheat or barley targeted for the domestic feed
market, rather than production of varieties that have been
approved for export. Diversification of crops and into value
added agricultural activities is expected to continue as well.
Canada's recent increase in wheat production and stock levels
have boosted exports to all major markets. Wheat exports to the
world, exclusive of traditional import markets, have more than
doubled over the past 10 years. In the early 1980s, Canada was a
large supplier of wheat to the Former Soviet Union and China.
However, reduced demand from these regions has directed their
attention to the rest of the world, specifically Asia and the
Western Hemisphere. Similar to Australia, Canada is developing
"designer wheats" to satisfy Asian noodle demand.
Canada has also made significant strides to increase their wheat
exports to the Asian market by establishing long-term purchase
agreements with several Asian countries and by developing
technical programs to educate consumers on the best end-uses for
Canadian wheat. Canada is also gaining market share in Brazil at
the expense of the U.S. As Brazilian import demand has increased
over the last 10 years, Canadian exports to Brazil have increased
15 percent, while US exports to Brazil have decreased by 17
percent.
Exports of barley by Canada have gravitated toward markets
with which it has a geographical advantage. Canadian barley
exports into the Western Hemisphere once comprised only 50
percent of all Western Hemisphere imports, but have averaged 70
percent over the past few years. The U.S. is the primary
destination for this barley, the lion's share of which is malting
quality. Asia once sourced 50 percent of it's barley imports from
Canada, but competition from Australia, and to a lesser extent,
the U.S. and the EU, have eroded Canada's market share over time.
European Union
Exports by the European Union, whether of wheat or coarse
grains (predominantly barley and rye), are largely a function of
it's internal supply-demand balance. Exports are used by the EU
Commission as a balancing tool. With production of all grains at
record levels, exports could conceivably be expected to rise.
However, since CAP reform the Commissions' focus has been on
promoting an expansion in internal use by pressuring down prices.
Rising internal use allows the EU to reduce imports of substitute
feed ingredients while reducing subsidies, a critical concern
because of ongoing large costs of the BSE (Mad cow) problem.
Overall grain demand in the EU is expected to continue strong in
coming years as has been the case since CAP reform in 1992,
reinforcing the new market sensitivities of internal EU grain
use. However, the rate of expansion will likely slow due to tight
internal grain supplies and relatively higher prices. If internal
prices increase and grain supplies become limited the European
Commission can be expected to once again limit access to exports
in favor of the internal livestock market. Export taxes were
introduced in 1996 and have surfaced once again in recent weeks.
Two nearby regions have become the focus of the EU's export
program: Africa and the Middle East. EU wheat exports to Africa
have more than doubled in the last 10 years, due in large part to
the increase in the region's wheat flour imports. Africa is the
primary recipient of food aid from the EU and relies heavily on
this aid for imports of flour. EU wheat exports to the Middle
East have also been increasing. Large export credit programs have
helped the EU capture a large portion of the growing import
demand. Highly subsidized export prices have enabled the European
Union to capture large market shares in both the Middle East and
Africa and to remain the lowest priced wheat supplier in the
world over the last several years. In 1996/97, the European Union
accounts for 16 percent of world wheat exports, a slight increase
from 13 percent in the mid-1970s.
The world's largest exporter of barley, the EU has curtailed
exports to less than two/thirds the peak level of 1991/92.
However, the EU is still the dominant supplier of barley to the
former Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North
Africa, accounting for over 40 percent of all imports by those
regions over the past 10 years. USDA does not track barley malt
exports, counting it as domestic use in the country where it is
malted, regardless of whether the malt is used in-country or
exported. However, the EU is by far the worlds' largest exporter
of malt, supplying European-trained maltsters throughout the
world.
United States
The United States remains the leading wheat exporter, holding
28% of the world market in 1996/97. Increased competition from
other domestic crops, lower planted, and various yield-reducing
weather problems have reduced U.S. wheat harvests in recent
years. This combined with increased production and aggressive
export efforts among the competitors, has led to a declining U.S.
market share over the past ten years. U.S. exports continue to
dominate regions, such as North America, and Africa, but are
falling behind in the Middle East, Other Asia, and Latin America.
In addition to reduced export availabilities, price remains a
large disadvantages for the US due to the continuation of export
subsidies in the EU and market-distorting price mechanisms of the
wheat boards in Australia and Canada.
The U.S. corn crop is regularly the largest crop harvested in
the world, easily surpassing the next largest crop, Chinese rice.
In all but two of the past 25 years, U.S. corn market share has
exceeded 50 percent of all corn traded in the world. While export
share has remained high, U.S. corn exports are going to vastly
different destinations than twenty years ago. Whereas exports to
Asia accounted for less than 20 percent of total U.S. corn
exports in 1975/76, they garnered more than 60 percent in
1995/96. Exports to countries in the Western Hemisphere have
grown from 5 percent to over 20 percent in the same time period.
U.S. sorghum exports have decreased over time, as import demand
from the two primary sorghum markets, Japan and Mexico, has
moderated. U.S. exports of barley have always been dominated by
feed barley, but exports of malting barley in 1995/96 and 1996/97
have set new records.
This article was prepared by Dusti Fritz and Scott Thompson.
For further information contact Scott Thompson at (202) 690-4195.
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
Production levels in 1997/98 are not likely to match those of 1996/97, when unusually large planted areas combined with exceptionally favorable weather worldwide to provide bumper crops in both importer and exporter nations alike, including record-breaking harvests in three of the world's five largest suppliers. Nevertheless, overall production is estimated to decline 2.8 million tons to 578 million tons, still the third-largest global wheat crop on record. However, the small aggregate change masks significant production swings in a few pivotal regions which largely serve to cancel each other out. Strong production increases are expected in Eastern Europe (up 7.0 million tons), China (up 5.0 million tons) and the former Soviet Union (also up 5.0 million tons), while large declines are forecast for North Africa (down 5.7 million tons), Australia (down 5.0 million tons), Canada (down 4.5 million tons) and Latin America (down 3.0 million tons).
Global trade is forecast to reach its highest volume in four
years even though two of the world's largest traditional
importers, China and the former Soviet Union, are expected to
remain all but absent from the global market for the second year
in a row. While 1996/97 will be remembered for its generally
evenly-spread bumper crop, 1997/98 may be characterized as a
return to more normal production variability which is expected to
bring with it a pickup in import demand. Some importers continue
to delay purchases in the hopes of a drop in prices once the
Northern Hemisphere new crops are harvested. This follows some
months of similar hand-to-mouth buying patterns which may
indicate that pipeline stocks are running low and in need of
replenishing.
Global stocks are forecast to edge above 20 percent of use for
the first time in three years as the global stocks-to-use ratio
is expected to rebound from the record-low 18.9 percent reached
during the 1996/97 season. Since global consumption generally can
be expected to rise with increasing production but resists
falling on supply shortfalls, low stocks become a matter of
concern when they reach levels where they may become unable to
support consumption demand in a time of weak production. Prices
therefore are expected to stay historically high, reflecting the
fact that world stocks remain uncommonly low while import demand
continues to be strong.
Exporters
Despite the high prices and strong domestic and export demand,
production is expected to remain basically unchanged in the United
States for the 1997/98 season. However, although overall
production seems flat the crop has returned to a more usual
composition by class, with spring wheat production down
considerably when compared to the prior year while winter wheat
is significantly higher. The rebuilding of severely depleted
stocks during 1996/97 is expected to allow exports to rise to
27.5 million tons, an increase of one million tons over the low
level of the prior year, in order to satisfy global demand.
Continued high levels of production combined with sales of the
remaining old crop supplies in Argentina, Australia and Canada
are expected to help the export programs of these three nations
remain strong in the 1997/98 year. In Argentina
it is anticipated that slight decreases in area and yield will
reduce the crop by almost two million tons, yet exports still are
predicted to reach 10 million tons for just the second time ever.
While a preliminary forecast shows area unchanged in Australia,
a sharp drop in yield back to normal levels will cut production
by over 20 percent, to 18.5 million tons, though here too exports
will not be affected by as much, falling just 17 percent, to 15
million tons. In both Argentina and Australia, production and
export levels are projected to remain second only to the 1996/97
record highs. A switch in area from wheat back to oilseeds likely
will reduce the crop in Canada by 4.5 million
tons, yet high carry-in stocks resulting from transport problems
experienced last winter are expected to allow exports from Canada
to rise year-to-year.
A small decrease in yield and signs of dryness in Portugal and
Spain will slightly reduce the size of the crop in the European
Union as well, in spite of a significant increase in
available acreage due to a reduction of the community's set-aside
requirement. Still, the overall level of production is forecast
to be second only to the prior year's record amount. Exports are
projected to increase one-half million tons, to 16 million tons,
as a second year of near-record production makes the continued
granting of export subsidy awards revived last summer seem
likely.
Importers
Asia
Continued unusually good weather and a projected 500,000
hectare increase in area is expected to push production in China
up five million tons above the 1996/97 level to 114 million tons.
This is China's second record-breaking crop in as many years and
third consecutive production increase. With a nearly flat per
capita consumption and ample stocks, China seems likely to remain
largely absent from the international wheat market for the second
year in a row.
Former Soviet Union
Like China, the nations of the former Soviet Union are
forecast to enjoy a net five million ton rise in production, with
a full four million tons of the increase concentrated in Ukraine.
The continuing (though slowing) liquidation of livestock ensures
that feed consumption of wheat likely will continue to fall
throughout the FSU, limiting the need for imports to those
necessary for quality requirements. Flat or falling wheat price
trends in Russia, combined with a continuing low
level of imports, suggests that the wheat market there is well
stocked and may even be engaged in a modest replenishing of low
stocks.
Middle East
Imports by Iran are expected to return to
more usual levels following an early 1997 spike which more than
doubled the normal import amount for the 1996/97 year. The recent
buying is attributed to prospects for a third year of
deteriorating quality and declining production of the domestic
crop, internal changes in consumption which emphasize the greater
feeding of wheat, and short-term maneuvering ahead of upcoming
national elections. Iraq is expected to be
granted a renewal of its oil-for-food arrangement, paving the way
for additional amounts of wheat to be imported into the nation.
North Africa
The region's current drought is expected to cut the crop in Algeria,
Morocco and Tunisia by a
combined 58 percent from the 1996/97 record production amount. A
projected 45 percent increase in imports and a drawdown of stocks
are expected to enable the countries to maintain consumption at
current levels. Modest production increases in Egypt
and Libya are anticipated to allow these other
two North African nations to increase consumption while
maintaining imports at current levels.
Eastern Europe
A projected healthy increase in production will give Eastern
Europe the ability to return to the net exporter status it
enjoyed during 1994/95 and 1995/96 but lost during the 1996/97
season. Strong production prospects in Romania, Bulgaria
and Hungary suggests that the region will have
plenty of wheat to offer into the international market. A
late-season 1996/97 surge of imports by Polandahead
of a tariff reinstatement has left that country flush with wheat,
dramatically reducing the need for imports in the 1997/98 season.
WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The prolonged fall in international rice prices which began in
early March continued into April with export quotes for Thai 100
B falling by as much as $15 per ton during the first three weeks
of the month. While heavy sales to Iran sparked a $20 rebound in
the Thai market, prices had begun to ease once again by the
second week in May. Meanwhile, export quotes in Vietnam fell
steadily throughout the month, declining about $15 per ton
between the beginning of April and the second week in May.
Pakistani values softened somewhat in the latter half of April
while export quotes from India were steady. In the United States,
long grain prices were unchanged, leading to a price differential
between U.S. #2/4 and 100B of about $125 per ton in mid-April.
Export values for medium grain eased about $10 per ton as import
demand was muted.
Exporters
The calendar year 1997 export forecast for India
was lowered this month to 1.2 million tons, down from 3.6 million
tons in 1996. While still the third highest level ever for Indian
exports, 1997 total will be 3.0 million tons less than their 1995
total. Where India was the world's second largest exporter in
both 1995 and 1996, they should fall to fifth place in 1997.
The calendar year 1997 export forecast for Burma
was also lowered this month, down from 150,000 tons to only
25,000 tons. Burma's rice production fell one million tons in
1996/97. These lower supplies and low carry-in stocks, even with
the virtual cessation of exports, will lead to lower consumption
in 1996/97.
Importers
The calendar year 1997 rice import forecast for the United
States was raised this month from 285,000 to 325,000
tons.
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND
OUTLOOK
Global trade of coarse grains during 1997/98
is projected to be 91 million tons, a marginal increase over the
1996/97 level. Lower world production is expected largely due to
reduced corn prospects in Latin America and China and expected
decreases in barley production in Canada, North Africa, and the
EU. Foreign coarse grain stock levels are preliminarily forecast
to diminish significantly in 1997/98 because Chinese corn stocks
are expected to be drawn down from 1996/97 levels. U.S. stocks
are projected to continue to rebuild in 1997/98 to the largest
level in three years, but still remain at relatively low levels.
World stock levels in 1997/98 are predicted to rise about 4
million tons, to 124 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio
is projected to rise slightly to 14 percent, the fifth lowest on
record.
Although a tight situation is expected to continue for world coarse
grains trade in 1997/98, demand is climbing to record
levels. It is anticipated that U.S. coarse grains trade will
increase significantly, largely because of rising imports of corn
by Mexico. Globally, there is projected growth in demand of corn
in 1997/98, with consumption expected at record levels. Supplies,
however, are expected to be moderately tighter, as less
production is offset by higher stock levels. While global
supplies of barley are projected to be tight,
mainly due to an expected significantly smaller Canadian and EU
crop, only moderate growth in demand is expected in 1997/98,
primarily in North Africa. An expected still hefty world sorghum
crop--second only to 1996/97 over the last 10 years--will offset
declining stocks to help meet expected record world demand,
particularly from Japan. World production and consumption of oats
and rye are projected to fall to record low
levels in 1997/98, primarily due to anticipated lower consumption
in Russia and the EU.
Exporters
With less expected competition and growing import demand in
1997/98, attributable to projected crop shortfalls, U.S.
corn exports are projected to regain some market share with 52
million tons of exports. EU barley exports are
expected up one-half million tons in 1997/98, to 6 million tons,
due to higher global import demand and relatively competitive
prices with other feed ingredients.
Importers
North America
Mexico is expected to import 4.5 million tons
of corn in 1997/98, the third largest level on record. When
coupled with a sizable year-to-year stock reduction, these
imports will enable increased local feed consumption, along with
an expected reduction in sorghum imports for feed based on price
competitiveness.
Latin America
Although consumption of corn in Latin America is preliminarily
forecast at slightly lower levels than in 1996/97, imports by Brazil,
Chile and Colombia are expected to
increase slightly in 1997/98 (by 1 million tons for Brazil and
100,000 tons for Chile and Colombia). Expected production
decreases in Brazil and Colombia account for the increased import
demand, while prospects for increased consumption needs are
behind the increase in Chile's import.
North Africa
Imports of corn by Egypt and Algeria
are projected to increase moderately in 1997/98 due to expected
increases in consumption levels and flat year-to-year production
and stocks levels. Imports of barley by Algeria and Morocco
are expected to increase sharply in 1997/98, due to
drought-reduced output.
Other Asia
Imports of corn by Indonesia, Malaysia,
Philippines, Thailand, and South
Korea are expected to show a moderate increase in
1997/98 due to expected increases in feed demand. Taiwan
is expected to import 1 million tons less than in 1996/97, at 4.5
million tons--the lowest level in 10 years, due to the outbreak
of Foot and Mouth Disease.
Middle East
The largest feed barley market in the world, Saudi
Arabia is expected to maintain imports at 5 million tons
in 1997/98. Imports of corn by Saudi Arabia, however, are
expected to rise 200,000 tons, to 1.3 million tons in 1997/98,
due to climbing feed consumption by the poultry sector. Imports
of sorghum by Turkey are projected to decline
back to zero in 1997/98, from the 1996/97 level of 150,000 tons.
ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND
TRADE
REGIONAL TABLES
1) Includes Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
2) Includes Central America, the Caribbean, and South America.
3) Includes Azores, Cyprus, Iceland, Malta & Gozo, Norway, and Switzerland
4) Includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and former Yugoslavia.
5) Includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
6) Includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia.
7) Includes all other African countries except North Africa.
8) Includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
9) Includes all other Asian countries except South Asia.
10) Includes Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, and Papua New
Guinea.
OTHER NOTES
Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate
of differing local marketing years and should not be construed as
representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.
Current and historical data on the European Union in this
issue refers to the EU-15.
Consumption statistics reflect total utilization, including
food, feed, seed, and differences in marketing year imports and
marketing year exports.
This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division,
Commodity and Marketing Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service,
USDA, Washington DC 20250. Information is gathered from official
statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source
materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attaches and Foreign
Service officers, results of office research, and related
information. Further information may be obtained by writing the
division or telephoning (202) 720-6219.
Note: The previous report in this series was the Grain: World Markets and Trade Foreign Agricultural Service Circular FG 4-97 April 1997. For further details on the world grain production, see World Agricultural Production, Foreign Agricultural Service Circular WAP 5-97 May 1997.
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