Last modified: Thursday, November 13, 2003
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February 13, 1997
This report provides the data and tables from the current GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE, PART TWO.
This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates -->WASDE 323-February 12, 1997.
This report was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, FAS. Agbox 1048, 14th and Independence Ave. Washington DC 20250. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, by calling (202) 720-6219, or by FAX (202) 720-0340
The next issue of the Grains circular will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on March 12
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Exports of Chinese corn for 1996/97 are
expected to be up 500,000 tons from last
month's forecast, to 1.0 million tons,
while projected imports have been lowered
by 450,000 tons, to 50,000 tons.
The wheat export forecast for Australia is
increased by 1.5 million tons to 16.5
million tons, a record amount.
The Argentine corn exports forecast for
1996/97 was increased 250,000 tons, to a
near-record 8.5 million tons.
Estimated calendar year 1996 rice exports
by Pakistan were raised to 1.7 million tons
following heavy exports in November and
December.
The forecast for 1997 imports of rice by
Brazil was lowered this month from 1.5 to
1.2 million tons.
Forecast 1997 rice imports by Bangladesh
were revised downward from 500,000 to
100,000 tons.
Heavy purchasing of wheat points to a
projected 1.5 million tons of additional
imports by Iran.
Canada's oats export forecast was revised
downward 100,000 tons, to 1.5 million tons,
while the forecast for EU exports was
revised upward 250,000 tons, to 450,000
tons.
Expected imports of oats in 1996/97 by the
United States are 150,000 tons higher this
month, standing at 1.9 million tons.
WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW
WHEAT
The forecast for 1996/97 world wheat trade
stands at 90.9 million tons, which except for a
brief mid-1980's dip represents the lowest level
of international wheat trade in over fifteen
years. Projected global production of 581
million tons -- the second-highest level on
record -- represents an eight percent increase
over last season. For the first time since
1992/93 production is anticipated to exceed
consumption. The global bumper crop has reduced
foreign trade and weakened international prices
as booming production in all the major exporters
and most of the traditional importers has
prompted aggressive efforts by exporters to
market larger supplies. While prices have
reacted to the abundant harvests by dramatically
falling from the record highs reached last
spring, they remain relatively strong due to low
stock levels, especially in the United States.
This season's additional production will provide
an opportunity to increase the world's severely
depleted reserves by a projected 8.2 million
tons, resulting in a 1996/97 global stocks-to-use
ratio of 19.5 percent, a small increase from
last year's record low ratio of 18.9 percent.
RICE
As final import and export data is released for
1996 and late arriving 1995 data becomes
available, there have been numerous adjustments
to world trade estimates for the past two years,
as well as for 1997. Overall, changes in world
trade estimates had a negligible net impact,
with 1995 trade estimated at a record 21 million
tons and 1996 trade estimated at 19 million
tons, both unchanged from January. Forecast
1997 trade was lowered, however, from 18.2 to
18.1 million tons as reductions in export
forecast for Pakistan and India were only
partially offset by increased export forecasts
for Argentina and the EU. Likewise, reductions
in the 1997 import forecasts for Brazil and
Bangladesh were largely offset by increased
import forecasts for Iraq, Peru and Russia.
COARSE GRAINS
Global trade of coarse grains during 1996/97 is
forecast at 89.3 million tons, up modestly from
the 1995/96 trade level of 88.5 million tons.
Global production of coarse grains in 1996/97 is
expected to be sharply higher than in 1995/96,
due largely to increased corn prospects in the
United States, China, and the EU, and expected
increases in barley production in Canada, North
Africa, and the EU. Foreign coarse grain stock
levels are forecast to rebound in 1996/97,
mostly due to increases in Canadian and EU
stocks. U.S. stocks, drawn down sharply in
1995/96, are projected to double in 1996/97, but
remain at relatively low levels. World stock
levels at the end of the 1996/97 season are
forecast to increase 17 million tons to 109
million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is
forecast to rise slightly to 12.5 percent, the
third lowest on record.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND
PROGRAMS
Vietnam Becomes Major Force in World Rice Market
The emergence of Vietnam as a major rice
exporter can be traced directly to declaration
of the country's Doi Moi policy reforms mandated
by the Vietnamese Communist Party in 1986. Key
to these reforms were guarantees of land tenure
for farming families and the opening of rice
marketing channels to private traders. Prior to
the implementation of these land tenure and
marketing reforms under Doi Moi, Vietnam was
regularly one of the world's leading importers
of rice. During the past ten years, however,
Vietnam's rice production has increased by two
thirds and Vietnam is forecast to become the
world's second largest rice exporter. Vietnam
has been able to manage the transition to being
a major exporter despite a 50 percent increase
in domestic rice consumption fueled by strong
population growth.
As late as 1988 Vietnam was a net importer of
rice. In 1989, however, Vietnam emerged as a
major exporter of rice, with overseas sales of
1.4 million tons out of total world trade of 14
million tons. Since 1989 Vietnam's rice exports
have grown steadily, topping 3 million tons- or
16 percent of world trade- in 1996.
Not only has the volume of Vietnam's rice
exports grown steadily, but its role in the
world rice market has begun to change as well.
Initially, Vietnam was able to produce only low
quality rice for export. Consequently, while
export volumes were large, United States rice
exporters faced no direct competition from
Vietnam. During the past two years there has
been a notable increase in exports of high
quality rice to markets such as Iran, Singapore
and Malaysia traditionally supplied by the two
premier suppliers of higher quality rice; the
United States and Thailand.
During the past eight years the importance of
rice exports in the Vietnamese economy has grown
along with export volumes. While the role of
industrial exports grows rapidly and
agricultural exports become less vital to
Vietnam's economy, rice exports bring in from
20-25 percent of total export revenue.
Continued heavy export tonnages and high world
price levels should serve to ensure the key role
that rice exports play in the generation of
future export revenue.
The role of the State in rice exportation
Rice exports from Vietnam are heavily
concentrated among state trading companies and
are strongly influenced by the ministries of
Trade, Agriculture and Rural Development, and
Planning and Investment. Any description of the
State's role in rice exports must begin with the
issuance of export quotas. Two trading
companies affiliated with the Government of
Vietnam- the Northern Food Corporation and the
Southern Food Corporation- make annual requests
for export quotas based ton their own estimate
of rice availability. These requests are then
reviewed jointly by the three ministries
mentioned above and export quotas are issued
through the Ministry of Trade. It is standard
practice for a conservative allocation to be
granted at the beginning of the year- for 1997
an initial allocation of 2.5 million tons has
been announced- to be followed by a supplemental
allocation later in the year after harvesting of
secondary crops.(An additional allocation of
250,000 tons is expected at mid year.)
Ministerial involvement in exports is not
limited to quota allocation. At the time of
contract execution exporters must again apply to
the Ministry of Trade for an export license,
granted on a shipment-by-shipment basis. Export
licenses are regularly denied in the event that
contracted sales prices no longer reflect actual
market values. As the international rice market
is characterized by a high degree of price
volatility and contract execution in Vietnam is
rarely rapid, this has led to serious and
recurring problem for importers of Vietnamese
rice.
There are two major export firms directly linked
to Vietnam's central government. The Southern
Food Corporation, based in Ho Chi Minh City, is
by far the country's largest exporter, with
exports regularly totaling 25 percent or more of
total exports. Not only is the Southern Food
Corporation the largest exporter in Vietnam, but
also has substantial power to affect the share
of other exporters through the distribution of
export quota shares. In addition, SFC tends to
be the executor of large government to
government contracts with countries that are
regular commercial purchasers. (e.g. the
Philippines, Cuba, Indonesia). SFC's presence
is felt in the market as the indicative price
setter. Given the risk involved in obtaining
export licenses when contract prices vary
significantly from prevailing market price
levels, other exporters tend to maintain export
prices closely in line with those of SFC.
The Northern Food Corporation (also known as
Vinafood I), based in Hanoi, is the smaller of
the two. Northern Food Corp. is given the
responsibility of executing government to
government export contracts to sensitive
political allies. In 1996 almost all export
shipments by Vinafood I went to Iraq. The
Northern Food Corporation plays a very limited
role in the export sector with 1996 exports of
under 200,000 tons.
Almost the entirety of remaining exports are
shipped by food companies affiliated with
provincial governments. Of course, the vast
majority of these are from the provinces of the
Mekong Delta, where Vietnam's exportable surplus
is produced. For provincial governments, rice
exports have become an essential source of
revenue. Cash earned through these exports goes
to support direct imports and business ventures
carried out by the provincial governments. Thus
far, efforts to centralize rice exportation in
the hands of SFC and NFC have been thwarted by
the provincial governments who have used their
political clout in order to maintain their
export autonomy.
The role of foreign companies in Vietnamese rice
exports
While limited by export regulations and the
system of export quota allocation, the role of
foreign firms in Vietnam's rice export sector
has been growing rapidly. Many multi-national
trading firms (MNCs) have a well established
presence in Vietnam. While legally unable to
export rice, they instead act as agents-
normally on behalf of the provincial food
companies (fees for these companies are
generally 1-2 percent of contract value). These
MNCs will therefore often be listed as the
importer of record despite the fact that the
final destination is known to all parties at the
time of embarkment. This system has enabled
Vietnam to be a leading force in the
international rice market despite a low level of
marketing expertise on the part of the
provincial food companies.
Recently several joint ventures have been formed
which have brought foreign companies directly
into the milling and processing sector. This
has significantly improved Vietnam's ability to
produce high quality rice for export. Chief
among these joint ventures is a mill operated by
American Rice, Inc. in the Mekong Delta and a
reprocessing facility run by the Golden Resource
Corporation in HCMC. Both of these companies
operate their joint ventures in cooperation with
the Southern Food Corporation.
While drastically increasing the availability of
high quality rice for export from Vietnam, these
companies have face heavy restriction in their
attempts to garner quota share for direct rice
exports. ARI, in particular, has received
permission to export tonnages far below those
agreed to by the GOV when the joint venture was
established. Furthermore, while joint venture
partners tend to provide the vast majority of
capital for plant operation and improvement,
they have found their partners unwilling to cede
control of such decisions as what improvements
are to be made, what equipment to be purchased,
etc.... It is fair to say that the ultimate
role of direct foreign investment in Vietnam's
rice sector is still very much an open question.
The Asian Development Bank recently issued a
report which was very critical of Vietnam's rice
export sector, its lack of transparency and
state interference. While Vietnam has responded
by issuing new regulations concerning
eligibility for export authorization, these new
regulations are sufficiently vague that any
substantial change in export operations appears
unlikely and would only become apparent over the
course of time.
The potential for further development of the
rice export sector
After posting record rice exports of 3.0 million
tons in 1996, Vietnam's rice exports are
expected to fall to 2.75 million tons in 1997.
While future increases in export levels are
certainly possible, they appear unlikely to be
dramatic. Increases in exports over the last
decade have been in response to phenomenal
growth in Vietnamese rice production. Currently
no significant new rice varieties are expected
to provide substantial increases in Vietnam's
rice production. In addition, after ten years
of rapid growth in irrigated acreage and
consequent increases in production area for
rice, the marginal cost of adding irrigation
infrastructure has begun to rise dramatically.
Additions to current rice acreage through
irrigation development should be limited in
coming years.
Also militating against further increases in the
availability of rice for export is the return by
many farmers to lower yielding, higher quality
rice varieties. This movement is reported to be
having a substantial impact on 1997 export
availability (although crop damage due to heavy
late rains is the largest single factor in the
decline of export availability). Such a switch
should allow Vietnam to make further inroads
into high quality rice markets and permit
farmers to maximize revenue on what are
generally very limited amounts of farmland.
Related to this switch is a growing diversion of
rice land to other uses. As the Vietnamese
economy grows, demand for rice land for
industrial use, as well as for production of
higher value crops such as fruits and vegetables
imperils the pace of expansion of Vietnam's rice
production.
The most important factor in developing the
Vietnamese rice sector is political. Issues of
contract sanctity, reliability of export
certification and the participation of foreign
firms in the export sector must be resolved
through increased transparency and openness in
this sector. Only through substantial reform
can Vietnam take advantage of its position as
the world's second largest rice exporter to
maximize the value of rice exports to the
Vietnamese economy.
For further information, please contact Morgan
Perkins at (202) 720-2231. Mr. Perkins prepared
this article after his recent travel in Vietnam.
Iraq Buys French, Australian and Argentine Wheat
Under UN Agreement
Economic, political and bureaucratic forces are
combining to guide Iraq's food purchases under
the United Nations (UN) "Oil for Food" deal.
Late in 1996, the UN agreed to allow the
Government of Iraq (GOI) to sell up to $2.0
billion of oil during the first six months of
1997 under strict UN observance. Oil sales are
subject to the proviso that 65 percent, or $1.3
billion, of the proceeds be used to purchase
food and medicine for the Iraqi people. Under
that $1.3 billion umbrella, the GOI has
reportedly earmarked $804.6 million for food
purchases, which will be split amongst the
regions of Iraq. At the end of the six-month
term the program will be reviewed and either
reinstated or rescinded. Market analysts have
been waiting to see what commodities the Iraqis
would purchase and from where, with full
knowledge that political considerations would
play a large role in determining the origin.
As of late January, the Government of Iraq had
purchased wheat, rice, sugar and tea under the
agreement. Wheat purchases reportedly total 1.2
mmt and are distributed among the EU, Australia
and Argentina as in the graph at left (in 1000
metric tons). So far, only 100,000 mt has been
approved by the U.N., as stipulated for all
purchases under the agreement. If one assumes
the 1.2 mmt figure is accurate and will be fully
approved by the U.N., GOI wheat purchases are
quickly approaching the 1.3 mmt program for
wheat outlined in the UN-Iraqi agreement's
Distribution Plan.
Additionally, Australia reportedly expects to
export 150,000-200,000 mt per month to Iraq from
April through June. That would bring its
exports to a maximum of 950,000 mt, near the one
million mt per year pace Australia maintained
before sanctions were established. It would
also bring Iraqi wheat imports well above the
reported 1.3 mmt program.
Wheat purchases are currently forecast
by USDA at 1.5 mmt for the first six
months of 1997, which is right in
line with Iraq's pre-sanctions
import pace. Prior to the UN sanctions
Iraq was importing an average of 3.0
mmt of wheat per year. Suppliers
were Australia (around 39 percent based on a
1986/87-1989/90 average), the U.S. (31 percent)
and the EC-12 (30 percent). Now, the U.S. will
not likely receive any business from the GOI.
Meanwhile, France has lent conditional support
for the lifting of sanctions and has so far
registered the largest sales of wheat. To
replace U.S. wheat, Iraq has turned to a non-traditional
supplier: Argentina. Under the UN
program Argentine sales are 6.6 percent of the
total so far and another 250,000 mt sale is
rumored to be on the books.
Despite this flurry of activity, Iraq has
scarcely made a dent in its dollar allocation
for food imports. With respect to wheat, total
sales are roughly $230 million, using reported
CIF prices ranging from $185 to $200/mt. That
leaves $575 million eligible for wheat and other
food purchases.
With respect to rice, the GOI has contracted
imports of 367,000 mt (not including 30,000 tons
tendered but yet to be rewarded). Suppliers
are: Vietnam (220,000 mt), Thailand (75,000 mt)
and Pakistan (72,000 mt).
For more information please contact Deanna
Johnson at (202) 720-4204.
Sharp Rise in U.S. Bulk Grain Exports in FY 1996
Not Matched by Grain Product Sales
Large export volumes and high prices lifted
fiscal 1996 (Oct95 - Sept96) United States grain
and related product exports by $3.8 billion, to
their highest level since the 1980/81 record.
At $20.6 billion, grain and grain products*
exports accounted for over a third of total U.S.
agricultural exports for fiscal 1996, and for
two-thirds of the U.S. agricultural trade
surplus for the year.
These export gains came mainly from bulk grains,
as a result of decreased competitor supplies and
high world prices. The United States had
sufficient supplies of wheat and corn to take
advantage of this opportunity and sharply
expanded exports. This success, however, was
not matched by exports of processed grain
products (in total), which failed to increase in
fiscal 1996. These products account for about
one-sixth of the total value of grain and grain
products exports. While export revenues of
several key processed products groups continued
to grow, the export performance of a few other
groups, identified as having great promise at
the beginning of the 1990's, has stalled.
The mixed performance of processed grain exports
is due, in large part, to the fact that
significant export sales growth remains tied to
only four key markets -- Canada, Mexico, Japan
and the countries of the European Union --
markets with the ability to pay for higher-priced consumer-
ready goods. Additionally, the
processing technologies for grain-based products
continue to be transferred abroad -- cereal
production as an example -- as foreign markets
grow and present value-added, domestic
processing business opportunities within the
consuming country.
Breakfast cereal exports of $174 million,
identified in the early 1990's as a "bright
star" for exports of consumer ready foods,
continue their disappointing, but probably
predictable, export pattern. Canada, Mexico and
the nations of the Caribbean remain key to
export earnings taking over 60 percent of all
U.S. cereal exports. Exports to Asian countries
showed strong growth for the year and accounted
for another 13 percent of U.S. exports.
However, Kellogg's announcement of a major
investment in cereal manufacturing facilities in
Thailand continues the pattern of processing
technology moving closer to the end-use markets.
While Thailand has not been a significant market
for U.S. cereals, the country is well positioned
to service growing regional markets. Similar
capital investments have already occurred in
Europe following the introduction of new U.S.
cereal brands in the early 1990's. In the eyes
of many importers, the acquisition of processing
technology can be a sound strategy when key,
basic inputs, such as grain, can be sourced
competitively from a number of exporters, or
grown locally as in the case of corn and rice in
Thailand.
Growth in exports of pancake flour, dough and
mixes resumed as the market in Japan continued
its expansion. Japan, Canada, and Mexico
account for 75 percent of total exports which
are now valued at $137 million.
* Consists of bulk grains, animal feed, added
value grain products, and pet food.
Pasta exports (Canada accounts for 75 percent of
U.S. exports) grew nine percent to $40 million,
but continue to be dwarfed by imports which
reached a record $266 million during 1995/96.
Imports from Italy of $139 million worth of
durum-based pasta products dominate (52 percent)
U.S. pasta imports. However, imports of a
record $81 million worth of non-durum pasta and
noodle products from a range of Asian nations
now account for 30 percent of total U.S. pasta
imports.
United States bakery products exports showed
excellent promise and growth in the early 1990's
but have now stalled at $368 million after
showing marginal growth in the last two years.
Canada and Mexico account for $237 million (64
percent) of total exports and Japan adds an
additional 5 percent to the total. Export gains
through 1992/93 out paced import gains and, for
a time, appeared to be poised to eliminate the
net trade deficit for the export category. The
export slowdown in recent years has not been
matched by a similar import slowdown. Imports
reached a record $630 million in 1995/96, up 10
percent for the year. As a result, the net
trade deficit for the category now exceeds $250
million. Imports from Canada and Mexico
accounted for $357 million (56 percent) of
imports with an additional $185 million (29
percent) coming from the European Union.
Corn products exports reached a new record of
$260 million on increases in meal, flour and
corn snack exports. Over two thirds of the
total $109 million in corn meal and flour
exports went to Mexico and Canada. Canada
accounted for nearly all of the growth in the
$65 million corn snack foods category taking
nearly $19 million (29 percent) of all U.S.
exports. The market for corn snack foods
exports to Asia showed no growth as reduced
exports to Japan offset gains elsewhere. Still,
the region accounted for over one quarter of
U.S. markets for the category.
Pet foods registered yet another record export
year during 1995/96 at $677 million. U.S.
imports of $153 million were also a record.
Canada continues to be the major export
destination taking $197 million (29 percent) of
U.S. exports for the year. The European Union
at $183 million (27 percent) and Japan $147
million (22 percent) round out the top
destinations for pet foods. Imports from Canada
account for two-thirds ($98 million) of pet
foods imports. The EU and Thailand virtually
split the remaining share of the import market.
For more background on U.S. pet food exports,
see the December, 1995, issue of this circular
series.
Exports of barley malt have been relatively
stagnant, even with the assistance of EEP, as
several important markets move away from
finished malt imports and expand their own
malting capabilities. Concurrently, malt imports
have risen in the 1990's, approaching levels
previously reached in the late 1970's. Canada
and the U.K. dominate the U.S. import market for
malt.
For further information, please contact Lee
Schatz at (202) 720-5429.
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: COMMENTARY AND
CURRENT DATA
WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The 1996/97 forecast for a world wheat trade of
90.9 million tons represents a 2.2 million ton
increase from last month but remains close to
the lowest level of international wheat trade
since the 1979/80 season. Generally favorable
weather has combined with a greatly expanded
planted area to provide a world wheat production
increase of 44.3 million tons over last year's
crop. Global production will exceed consumption
for the first time in four years, allowing for
some rebuilding of severely depleted reserves.
Nevertheless, stocks are not expected to return
to the excessive levels carried in the 1980's
when government inventories were extremely
large.
Exporters
With this month's 1.6 million ton increase in
the 1996/97 wheat production estimate for
Australia, three of the world's five major
producers are enjoying crops of record size.
Both Australia and Argentina are expected to
export record amounts of wheat in 1996/97,
increasing combined exports by 10 million tons
from last year. Forecast exports from the
European Union have been raised by 500,000 tons
and are now projected to reach 14.5 million
tons.
Importers
Strong purchasing activity prompted increases of
1.5 million tons and 700,000 tons respectively
in the import forecasts for Iran and India. A
healthy import pace by Turkey led to a 500,000
ton increase in the projected imports by that
nation as well.WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
International rice prices were firm during the
month of January with Vietnam being the only
major exporter to record significant price
decreases. By the beginning of February,
however, nominal price quotes out of Thailand
had also begun to soften. After increasing by
up to $20 per ton during the month of January,
quotes for top quality Thai 100B had eased $10
or so during the first two weeks of February.
Export quotations for Vietnam softened
consistently through the first half of January
before stabilizing at about $10 per ton below
year end-values. Exporters in Pakistan, which
entered the year as the lowest-price source,
were content to hold steady on pricing before
raising export quotes marginally toward mid-January.
In the U.S., robust export sales have
combined with lower availability from the
1996/97 crop to drive long grain prices up $25-30 per
ton in January. Prices for U.S. long
grain are at their highest level since August's
pre-harvest run up.
Exporters
The calendar year 1996 export estimate for
Pakistan was raised this month from 1.4 to a
record 1.66 million tons. November-December
exports were extremely high as Pakistani
exporters took advantage of delayed harvests in
Thailand and Vietnam to offer deep discounts for
importers. The forecast of 1997 exports was
lowered to 1.65 million tons, however, as these
heavy Nov.-Dec. shipments limit availability
from the 1996/97 crop for later shipment.
The 1997 export forecast for India was lowered
this month from 2.25 to 2.0 million tons. As
forecast import demand in South Asia falls and
export prices out of India remain uncompetitive,
1997 exports are expected to be significantly
slower than in both 1995 and 1996.
Extra-regional 1995 exports by the EU are now
estimated to be 325,000 tons, versus 250,000
tons a month ago. Likewise, forecast 1997
exports were raised from 200,000 to 350,000 tons
as export availability should be similar to that
of 1995. Forecast 1997 exports by Argentina
were also increased, to a record 550,000 tons,
as record production is forecast to top 1.0
million tons.
Importers
South America
Forecast 1997 imports by Brazil were reduced
this month from 1.5 to 1.2 million tons, the
second highest level ever of Brazilian imports.
A quiet domestic market during the month of
January lends credence to many in the trade who
have maintained that increases in Brazilian rice
consumption have slowed significantly in the
past couple of years. This decrease in forecast
imports, combined with record combined export
availability from Brazil's MercoSur trading
partners, drastically reduce potential for
extra-regional imports by Brazil.
The 1997 import forecast for Peru was raised
this month from 300,000 to a record-tying
400,000 tons. This increase was prompted by a
reduction in forecast Peruvian rice production.
1997 will be the fifth year in the last seven in
which Peru's imports total more than 300,000
tons, and the second year in a row in which
imports total 400,000.
South Asia
The calendar year 1997 import forecast for
Bangladesh was lowered this month from 500,000
tons to just 100,000. Excellent crop conditions
and input availability have contributed to a
750,000 ton increase (rough basis) in the
1996/97 production forecast for Bangladesh, and
allow the country to achieve near self-sufficiency
after two consecutive years as one
of the world's top rice importers.
Middle East
Calendar year 1997 rice imports by Iraq are now
forecast to reach 750,000 tons, up from last
month's forecast of 500,000 tons. Under the
U.N.'s food-for-oil deal, Iraq has contracted
between 350,000 and 400,000 tons of rice imports
for shipment in the first half of 1997. It is
highly unlikely that Iraq would be capable of
importing the full 750,000 tons if political
events were to prevent renewal of the oil-for-food
plan following the first six months of
implementation.
Former USSR
The calendar year 1996 rice import forecast for
Russia was increased this month from 300,000 to
350,000 tons upon receipt of preliminary Russian
import data. Additionally, the CY 1997 import
forecast was raised from 150,000 to 300,000 tons
based on a reduction in forecast 1996/97 Russian
rice production and continuation of heavy export
sales from India.
EU
Based on import data recently made available,
the 1995 rice import forecast for the EU was
increased from 550,000 to 820,000 tons. This
total represents only imports from non-member
countries. One major development confirmed by
the latest available data is the growing
importance of imports from Guyana and Surinam,
much of it transhipped through the Netherlands
Antilles. Owing to the increasing regularity
and tonnage of these imports, combined with an
evident decline in transhipments by the EU
(which are not considered as EU imports) the EU
import estimate for 1996 was raised from 600,000
to 800,000 tons and the 1997 forecast raised
from 500,000 to 650,000.
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World trade in corn in 1996/97 is expected to
fall moderately from 1995/96 levels, primarily
due to increased competition from other feed
grains. Forecast 1996/97 U.S. corn exports of
48.5 million tons are four million tons lower
than 1995/96 exports and 10 million tons less
than 1994/95 exports. China, once the world's
second-largest exporter and a net importer of
nearly 1.2 million tons in 1995/96, is expected
to be a net exporter--for the first time since
1994/95--of 950,000 tons in 1996/97. U.S.
export opportunities in Asia in 1996/97 are
expected to remain relatively good.
World trade in barley is expected to increase
significantly in 1996/97. World stocks of
barley, while projected to increase from 1995/96
levels, will still be below levels observed two
years ago, and well below normal. Projected
imports by the Middle East, particularly by the
largest feed barley importer, Saudi Arabia, are
expected to rebound sharply, due to increased
feed demand. Asia continues to be a significant
growth market, primarily for malting barley, as
their barley imports are projected to increase
to record levels in 1996/97.
Exporters
Other Asia
Although there has been no official announcement
of a lifting of the export ban (in place since
1994/95), China has re-entered the corn export
market with exports forecast to reach one
million tons. Southeast Asian countries and the
Korea are the expected destinations for these
corn deliveries. For the first time since the
onset of the export ban, China is forecast to be
a net exporter. Since there are many feedlots
and compounders in the region that prefer small
lots that they can independently finance and
utilize, China ships in 10-15,000 ton boats,
rather than Panamax vessels.
REGIONAL TABLES
1) Includes Canada, Mexico, and the United
States.
2) Includes Central America, the Caribbean,
and South America.
3) Includes Azores, Cyprus, Iceland, Malta &
Gozo, Norway, and Switzerland
4) Includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary,
Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and former Yugoslavia.
5) Includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan,
Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia,
Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and
Yemen.
6) Includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and
Tunisia.
7) Includes all other African countries except
North Africa.
8) Includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan,
India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
9) Includes all other Asian countries except
South Asia.
10) Includes Australia, Fiji, New
Zealand, and Papua New Guinea.
OTHER NOTES
Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on
an aggregate of differing local marketing years
and should not be construed as representing
world stock levels at a fixed point in time.
Current and historical data on the European
Union in this issue refers to the EU-15.
Consumption statistics reflect total
utilization, including food, feed, seed, and
differences in marketing year imports and
marketing year exports.
This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed
Division, Commodity and Marketing Programs,
Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, Washington
DC 20250. Information is gathered from official
statistics of foreign governments and other
foreign source materials, reports of U.S.
agricultural attaches and Foreign Service
officers, results of office research, and
related information. Further information may be
obtained by writing the division or telephoning
(202) 720-6219.
Note: The previous report in this series was the
Grain: World Markets and Trade Foreign
Agricultural Service Circular FG 1-97 January
1997. For further details on the world grain
production, see World Agricultural Production,
Foreign Agricultural Service Circular WAP 2-97
February 1997.
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