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NOVEMBER 13, 1996
This report provides the data and tables from the current GRAINS: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE, PART TWO. This report draws on information from USDA's global network of agricultural attaches and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments, other foreign source materials, and results of office analysis. Estimates of U.S. acreage, yield and production are from the USDA Agricultural Statistics Board, except where noted. This report is based on unrounded data; numbers may not add to totals because of rounding. The report reflects official USDA estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply Estimates -->WASDE 320-November 12.
This report was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, FAS. Agbox 1048, 14th and Independence Ave. Washington DC 20250. Further information may be obtained by writing to the division, by calling (202) 720-6219, or by FAX (202) 720-0340
The next issue of the Grains circular will be available electronically after 3:30 pm local time on December 13.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
SITUATION/OUTLOOK
Projected exports of wheat by the United States are up 500,000 tons to 25.5 million tons, based on a continued strong pace of sales and shipments.
Syrian barley exports for 1995/96 were raised 250,000 tons, to 600,000 tons, while 1996/97 exports were raised 100,000 tons, to 500,000 tons, primarily due to expected trade with Jordan.
Wheat exports by Canada in 1996/97 are projected at 19 million tons, down one million tons from last months' level, due to a slow pace of sales and shipments to date; also increased competition from Argentina and Australia is expected to constrain export opportunities.
The calendar year 1996 rice export forecast for Vietnam was increased this month from 2.8 to 3.0 million tons, based on the pace to date.
The 1996/97 EU export forecast for oats was raised 50,000 tons, to 200,000, mainly attributed to an expected increase in Swedish exports to the United States.
The 1995/96 estimate for South Korean sorghum imports was raised threefold, to 150,000 tons, largely due to imports from the United States.
Calendar year 1997 rice imports by China are now forecast at 1.0 million tons, down from 1.25 million, as improved crop prospects are expected to limit demand for all but high-quality imports.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
South Africa's wheat market follows its corn industry on the road to deregulation.
Thailand moves toward more liberal treatment of corn imports, but maintains safeguards.
The Czech Republic is considering a wide range of changes in grain marketing policy.
A promising future for U.S. rice in Asia as import demand grows and WTO dividends accrue.
WORLD AND U.S. GRAIN OVERVIEW
WHEAT
The forecast for 1996/97 world wheat trade stands at 90 million tons, representing the lowest level of international wheat trade in over a decade. Annual global production is projected to increase to 579 million tons -- the second-highest on record -- and for the first time since 1992/93 is anticipated to exceed consumption. However, as the harvest progresses it becomes increasingly apparent that, in response to the record-high prices of the past year, quality was occasionally sacrificed for increased yield. Consequently, wheat feeding is expected to increase, while demand for high quality food wheats will likely remain strong. Prices, while still at historically-respectable levels, have reacted to the increased near-term supplies by falling off dramatically from the record highs reached last spring. Much of the crop increase is expected to be stockpiled, as global stocks are projected to increase 7 percent to 111 million tons resulting in a 1996/97 global stocks-to-use ratio of 19.4, up from last year's record low but still the second-lowest level on record.
RICE
The calendar year 1996 forecast of international rice trade was increased slightly this month from 18.8 to 19.0 million tons, on expectations of increased exports by Vietnam. Total forecast 1997 rice trade is virtually unchanged this month. Projected global rice production in 1996/97 (rough basis) was increased to a record 562 million tons, due primarily to a 3 million ton increase in China's production to a record 189 million tons. After falling for five consecutive years, global stocks of rice are expected to increase slightly to 49 million tons, primarily due to an anticipated increase in China's rice stocks.
COARSE GRAINS
Global trade of coarse grains during 1996/97 is forecast at 87 million tons, down moderately from the 1995/96 trade level. Global production of coarse grains in 1996/97 is expected to be sharply higher than in 1995/96, due largely to increased corn prospects in the United States, China, and the EU, and expected increases in barley production in Canada, North Africa, and the EU. Foreign coarse grain stock levels are forecast to rebound in 1996/97, mostly due to increases in Canadian and EU stocks. US stocks, drawn down sharply in 1995/96, are projected to rebuild somewhat in 1996/97, but remain at relatively low levels. World stock levels at the end of the 1996/97 season are forecast to increase roughly 24 million tons to 114 million tons. The global stocks-to-use ratio is forecast to rise slightly to 13.3 percent, the third lowest on record.
FOREIGN COUNTRIES' POLICIES AND PROGRAMS
South Africa Prepares to Deregulate Wheat Market
In line with commitments made in the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, South Africa has been in the process of deregulating its agricultural industries. A recently adopted Marketing Products Act provides for the elimination of all single-channel agricultural marketing schemes by the end of 1997. While the larger corn industry had already begun the process of deregulation in May, 1995, the Wheat Board has been a holdout. Now the way finally has been cleared to open up the wheat market, beginning with the start of next year's marketing season on November 1, 1997. Until that time, South Africa's wheat market will continue to operate a fixed-price scheme administered by the Wheat Board.
The main argument against deregulation of the wheat market traditionally has been the relatively small size of the industry with annual consumption at only about 2.5 million tons, with just six major milling companies. Another concern has been the heavy expense of moving domestic wheat from the Western Cape surplus area to the far-off urban consumer markets, cost up to R200/ ton (equivalent to about US$42). The western coastal farmers are also most vulnerable to competition from imported wheat. Quantitative import restrictions already have been lifted, and there is currently no duty on imported wheat.
South Africa's wheat imports have averaged almost 600,000 tons during the past three years, and its exports 100,000 tons. A better than average wheat crop is expected for 1996/97, so imports for the season are forecast at only 300,000 tons and exports again at 100,000 tons.
Based on reports from the Office of Agricultural Affairs, U.S. Embassy in Pretoria. For further information, please contact Sara Gilbreth at (202) 720-3049.
Thailand Modifies Restrictions on Corn Imports
Demand for corn and other feedstuffs continues to rise rapidly in Thailand, responding to growth in the country's flourishing poultry and swine industries. During the past couple of years, feed compounders have demanded more access to corn imports as domestic production fell short of needs, even as the country shifted from a large exporter to importer status. The government reacted in 1995 by putting into place a low duty corn import quota of 400,000 tons. The quota was increased to 550,000 tons for 1996. In both years, imports had to be completed early in the year to order to minimize the impact on local producer prices.
In late October, the Thai government took a further liberalizing step by eliminating corn import quotas and reducing import duties to zero, effective January 1, 1997. The window for corn imports will still be restricted, but for the relatively lengthy period of February 20 through June 30, 1997. However, it appears that these liberal provisions will apply only as long as Bangkok wholesale prices for corn remain above the specified level of 4.50 baht/kg (about $180 per ton). This stipulation was made in order to protect domestic corn producers. If lower prices prevail, the following conditions will apply:
(a) if Bangkok wholesale prices are less than 4.50/kg baht, the government will allow corn imports in accordance with its World Trade Agreement commitments, ie., under a tariff quota. While the new regulation does not specify the details of a TRQ under these price conditions, recent experience likely provides a reasonable indicator of the quota amount and tariff rate.
(b) if Bangkok wholesale prices fall below 3.80/kg baht, the government will intervene to stabilize corn prices through unspecified actions by the Policy and Measures for Aids to Farmers Committee.
It should be noted that Bangkok wholesale prices for corn for the first two quarters of 1996 averaged 5.15 and 5.55 baht/kg ($206 and $222 per ton) respectively. However, Thai feed millers reportedly are apprehensive about the government's basing access to corn imports on domestic price levels. They point out that corn importation takes time, and that both domestic and international corn prices normally fluctuate, and prove very disruptive for corn imports. The feed millers are said to be voicing their concern on this issue, and are expected to request modifications in the new corn import provisions.
Based on reports from the Office of Agricultural Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Bangkok. For further information, please call Russ Nicely at (202) 690-4200.
Czech Republic Seeks Solution to Grain Marketing Problems
In spite of this year's decent harvest, the Czech government is having a difficult time in procuring wheat it contracted with farmers earlier in the year. The Czech Fund for Market regulation, a state agency responsible for market regulation, contracted this spring to procure 600,000 tons out a total wheat crop of the 3.7 million tons expected to be produced in 1996/97. Recent reports indicate that the Fund has thus far procured only a small percentage of the contracted amount. The main reason for the shortfall has been the reluctance of farmers to release wheat to the state when they can get better prices on the free market. Another reason is that farmers are having difficulty in meeting quality standards set by the Fund, due to poor summer weather conditions. The Fund needs to procure wheat to replenish its working reserves, as well as return 150,000 tons to the state emergency reserves, which it borrowed earlier in the year.
In the hope of generating additional wheat purchases, the Fund has increased its procurement price from the original 3,400 Kc to 4,000 Kc per ton. It also lowered the quality standards, which relate mainly to gluten content. However, the contract conditions set last spring between farmers and the Fund remain the same. The advance producer price of 3,500 Kc will be topped off with an additional 700 Kc per ton, but the original quality requirements remain in place. It appears that the additional payment has the agreement of the Czech Chamber of Agriculture, although it claims that some farmers are selling wheat at above 4,200 Kc per ton on the free market. Farmers have been warned that failure to fulfill contracts with the Fund will exclude them from receiving state subsidies and loan guarantees in the future.
As a last resort to meet its procurement needs, the Fund announced plans to tender for imports. However, it appears highly unlikely that imports will be contracted. Czech wheat imports have been negligible in the past, and it appears that this year's crop is sufficient for domestic needs. Moreover, the government appears still to have hopes of procuring its essential needs from the local crop.
Looking further ahead, the Czech government currently is considering how it can modify its grain marketing system to better serve both farmers and consumers. Like most of the central European nations emerging from socialist economies, there are transitional difficulties especially in the farm sector. No conclusions have been reached, and the options being considered range from tighter control of the market to a virtually free market. It appears that a decision is not close at hand.
Note: Exchange rate is U.S.$ = 27.27 Kc
Based on reports by Ms. Stanislava Lecjaksova, Agricultural Specialist in the Office of Agricultural Affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Prague. For further information, please contact Sara Gilbreth at (202) 720-3049.
The Evolving Market for U.S. Rice in Asia
Before the 1970's, United States rice production was concentrated in medium and short grain varieties. Long grain rice comprised less than 45% of total production. In California, rice production had been established to feed immigrant populations from Japan and China. As a result, cultivation in California-which as late as 1980 comprised 25% of total U.S. rice production- was dominated by the medium and short grain varieties preferred by consumers in Japan and Korea. Following the termination of the second World War this concentration of production in medium and short grain varieties served the United States well. The need for post-war rice imports by Japan provided a ready market for production surpluses in California. Heavy exports of medium and short grain rice from the United States continued into the late 1960's. As United States exports to Japan dwindled a new market surfaced for exporters of medium grain rice. South Korea now found itself in a chronic deficit position and beginning in the late 1960's began to import heavily from the United States.
Fortunately for producers in the United States, South Korean consumers shared the Japanese preference for medium grain rice. As a result, the loss of one market was easily compensated for by the emergence of the other. The transition was not so smooth for short grain producers in the United States. Short grain rice represented approximately 15% of all U.S. production in the late 1960's. Loss of the Japanese market caused this sector to go into irreversible decline, and short grain production now accounts for less than 1% of total rice production in the United States.
By the early 1970's, the proportion of long grain rice in the U.S. crop had begun its steady growth. While United States long grain was generally not competitive with Asian rice exports, the huge scope of United States international aid programs helped to provide markets for U.S. long grain in Asia. The PL480 program allocated United States government funds for the purchase- by recipient governments- of U.S. agricultural products. Purchased U.S. products would then be re-sold domestically by the recipient government and resulting revenues would be used to fund development projects within the recipient nation. Large PL480 projects funded U.S. rice exports to India, Indonesia and the Philippines. The Indonesian program was by far the largest, financing imports of U.S. rice totaling approximately 400,000 tons in 1976 and 1977.
Through the combined export of PL480 rice and rice to South Korea, United States exports to Asia regularly exceeded 400-500,000 tons by the late 1970's, and in 1980 and 1981 totaled about 1.0 million tons per year. In 1980 exports of U.S. medium grain to South Korea reached more than 800,000 tons- 30% of U.S. exports. In the early 1980's, sharp reductions in PL480 allocations drastically cut back on long grain exports to Asia and the achievement of self-sufficiency in rice production by South Korea all but ended U.S. rice exports to Asia. From more than 1.0 million tons in 1980, United States exports to East and Southeast Asia fell to less than 90,000 tons in 1984. These depressed levels of U.S. exports would continue for ten more years, with the exception of heavy PL480 shipments to the Philippine in 1988.
In 1981, United States exports accounted for approximately 50% of total imports in East and Southeast Asia. As U.S. market share fell Asian rice importers began to buy exclusively within the region. While exports by Thailand continued to hold a steady share of the Asian market new exporters such as China, Vietnam and- most recently- India emerged to supply the regional market. As these regional exporters solidify their positions as the dominant rice exporters in the region, prospects for resumption of large scale long grain exports from the United States to Asia appear bleak. Recent years, however, have seen a resurgence of U.S. medium grain exports to Asia. Prospects for the continuation of market liberalization in Japan and sustained production declines in South Korea now hold out the possibility that U.S. exporters will once again find a large and consistent market in Asia.
The Decline Of U.S. Medium Grain: Response To Falling Asian Demand
While achieving exports of over 800,000 tons of medium grain rice to South Korea in both 1980 and 1981 might be seen as a triumph of oversees marketing, some of the implications would later prove devastating for United States medium grain production. By the time South Korean imports reached this level, exports to Asia disposed of more than half of U.S. medium grain production. In 1982, exports of U.S. medium grain to South Korea fell from 850,000 tons to just over 200,000. That year ending stocks for medium grain reached a remarkably high 97% of total consumption. By 1993 total U.S. exports of medium grain rice would fall to only 291,000 tons, less than 30% of levels achieved just a dozen years earlier. Medium grain exports which had previously totaled 40% of U.S. exports dropped to barely 10%.
As import demand for U.S. medium grain fell, so did domestic medium grain prices. In the course of two years, from 1980 to 1982, season average prices for medium grain milled rice fell more than 40% from $27.70 to $15.90 per hundredweight. While long grain prices in the United States fell as well, the collapse in medium grain prices was more severe. For seven out of the eight years prior to the 1982 price collapse, medium grain prices had carried a premium to long grain. During the following six years, medium grain rice would carry a premium only once.
The response by U.S. farmers was immediate. Medium grain plantings fell by more than 45% between 1982 and 1983. Medium grain harvested acreage in the southern United States fell from 565,000 acres in 1982 to 272,000 in 1983. The decline in harvested acreage was almost as severe in California, down from 535,000 to 328,000 acres. Medium grain quickly rebounded in California. By 1984 harvested acreage had bounced back to over 400,000 acres. California medium grain harvests would consistently remain at that level for the remainder of the 1980's. In the South, though, harvested medium grain acres failed to reach 300,000 acres during the remainder of the decade.
While medium grain acreage stagnated, long grain production in the United States took off. From the birth of the United States rice industry in the 19th century, long grain rice did not account for as much as 50% of U.S. production until the 1970's. By 1985, long grain regularly totaled 70% of U.S. production. In 1981, long grain production in the United States was 5.0 million tons (rough basis) and medium grain 3.3 million tons. In 1982 the production gap had widened to 2.7 million tons, with long grain production at 4.4 million tons and medium grain falling to 1.7 million.
The Resurgence Of Medium Grain Production After dropping in 1982, medium grain prices continued to slide, finally hitting bottom in 1986. Medium grain plantings in California had begun to increase after their precipitous decline in 1983, and as prices began to climb again, medium grain acreage in the South also started on the road to recovery.
Despite the decline in U.S. exports, domestic use of medium grain rice increased significantly in the mid 1980's. Total domestic use rose from 24 million hundredweight in 1982/83 to 31 million in 1987/88. Much of the impetus behind this increased use was provided by increasing demand from industrial and food-processing users. In the decade between 1978/79 and 1988/89 processed-food use of rice in the United States increased from 4.0 million hundredweight (rough basis) to 9.0 million. This increasing domestic use combined with falling production to lower ending stocks from 97% in 1982/83 to 20.6% in 1987/88. After the 1986 season, medium grain milled rice prices began to climb from their low of $13.00 per hundredweight to $17.95 in 1991 and $22.05 in 1993.
While U.S. medium grain exports to Asia had all but stopped, new markets were emerging. Medium grain exports reached their nadir during the years 1982 through 1987 when large percentages of U.S. medium grain exports were being shipped to sub-Saharan Africa and South America under the PL480 program. By 1986 Middle Eastern markets became the leading importers of U.S. medium grain. Turkey became the largest single importer with purchases of 179,000 tons in 1989 increasing to 300,000 tons in 1995. Jordan also became a steady buyer, purchasing an average of 45,000 tons per year between 1986 and 1992.
As stocks declined and prices increased in the late 1980's, planting of medium grain began to expand once again in the southern United States. By 1990, harvested acreage in the South had overtaken that in California. Harvested acres in the South rose to more than 400,000 acres- almost 80% of 1982 levels. Total production was on the upswing as well, after falling to 1.7 million tons (rough basis) in 1986/87. By 1990 medium grain production reached 2.2 million tons.
It was in 1993 that Asia once again became an export destination for United States medium grain. Japan's emergency import campaign led to U.S. exports of 30,000 tons in 1993 and 481,000 in 1994. FOB prices for #1 Calrose medium grain surged to $600 per ton by late 1993, over double the price in the first half of the year. Harvested acres for medium grain have continued to expand, with planted acreage in California exceeding 500,000 acres in 1986: Pre-1982 levels.
These emergency Japanese imports may have been sufficient to bolster the U.S. medium grain market alone. In fact, even while Japan was driving prices to record high levels, U.S. exports to the Middle East in both 1993 and 1994 continued strong. As Japan began its GATT minimum access purchases in late 1995 and into 1996 medium grain prices remained high. Nevertheless, Turkey posted record imports from the United States in 1995, reaching 300,000 tons. With Japan's minimum access commitment on the rise, strong demand from Turkey and Jordan, and the possibility of heavy demand by South Korea, the world medium grain market once again looks favorable for United States exporters.
Prospects For Increased U.S. Exports To Asia
When United States rice exporters look at East and Southeast Asia today, they see tremendous opportunities for U.S. rice. While the region as a whole has gone from importing around two million tons of rice per year to more than five million tons per year. Leading rice consumers such as Indonesia, China and the Philippines have seemingly reached the limits of available acreage while domestic demand continues to grow and yield gains stagnate. In Japan, fulfillment of Uruguay Round commitments will provide for importation of three-quarters of a million tons of rice by the end of the decade. In South Korea both Uruguay Round commitments and a long term trend of declining production point towards heavy importation in coming years.
Of course, for U.S. exporters, the Asian market of the 1990's is vastly different than the markets of the late-1970's and early 1980's. Concessional sales, while still used, have become much less prevalent. As a result, expectation for U.S. long grain exports to Asia are quite limited. Asia in the 1990's is a medium grain market for U.S. exporters. Emphasizing unparalleled quality, U.S. exporters-particularly from California- have set their sites on the South Korean and Japanese markets and their quality-conscious consumers. Devotion to exemplary quality in production and processing has had the additional affect of opening up exports to other Southeast Asian markets, such as Singapore, Hong Kong and Indonesia, where the same high quality rice imported by Japan is sold as premium branded rice in local supermarkets.
The future looks full of promise for United States exports to Asia. As long as nations such as Japan and South Korea continue to honor their market-liberalization commitments and economic growth continues to expand high-quality rice markets throughout eastern Asia, demand growth is expected to continue strong. It is widely expected that medium grain production in the United States will continue its recent growth. Increasing demand in Asia combined with steady exports to the Middle East, Canada and Europe provide a foreign outlet for U.S. production. Rising internal demand also supports increased medium grain planting. In previous years domestic processors and industrial users overwhelmingly preferred California-produced rice, to the detriment of medium grain plantings in the South. Recent development of new varieties, more regular and higher in quality, have helped southern producers make inroads into this sector of the domestic market. This development is expected to fuel increased planting of southern medium grain, relieving processors and industrial end-users of the burden of bidding against foreign buyers for California medium grain, and freeing up more California-grown rice for export markets in Asia and around the globe.
For further information, please call Morgan Perkins at (202) 720-2231.
SITUATION AND OUTLOOK: COMMENTARY AND CURRENT DATA
WORLD WHEAT SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
The 1996/97 forecast for world wheat trade is forecast at 90 million tons, down marginally from last month. Prices have continued their six-month slide, with US hard red winter wheat averaging $172/ton FOB for the first week in November, down nearly $100 from the May peak. Argentina continues to be the most aggressive exporter, with FOB prices at $135/ton for nearby delivery. Despite the third largest year-to-year increase in exporter stocks on record projected for 1996/97, prices will quickly rebound if prospects for the 1997/98 crops become unfavorable.
Exporters
With 28 million tons -- 63 percent -- of the 1996/97 global production increase concentrated in the world's five largest wheat exporting nations, competition is likely to intensify as the world's traditional exporters vie for market share. In August the European Union, enjoying the largest wheat crop in its history, resumed the awarding of export subsidies, a practice from which they had refrained for 15 months. Argentina and Australia, each forecast to harvest their second-largest crops on record, are expected to be especially aggressive as well. Exports from Canada are projected to increase, largely due to sales of feed quality wheat to South Korea. Among the world's major suppliers, only the United States is forecast to export less wheat in 1996/97 than in 1995/96, when the U.S. reliably satisfied high global demand. After five consecutive record harvests in India, a liberalization of the domestic grain trade allowed the nation to emerge as a major exporter last year. However, a reduced crop in 1996/97, soaring internal wheat prices and rapidly diminishing stocks will likely prevent additional exports by India for the near term. Poor harvests and low reserves have also caused most Eastern European countries to switch from net exporters to significant net importer positions.
Importers
Most traditional wheat importing nations are anticipated to have ample harvests and as a result are not expected to support the level of international wheat trade in 1996/97 experienced in the past. This month the import forecast for the EU was lowered 600,000 tons to 1.5 million tons. Record overall production levels, coupled with expected increased supplies of high-quality and durum wheats, are likely to limit import demand.
WORLD RICE SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
International rice prices were quite stable over the past month, with the sole exception of Pakistan, where a devaluation of the rupee resulted in a 5 percent reduction in quotes. Price quotes in the U.S. were also steady, as continued strong export sales and limited farmer selling combined to maintain the exceptionally high premium for US rice.
Exporters:
The calendar year 1996 export forecast for Vietnam was raised this month from 2.8 to 3.0 million tons. Slightly more than two million tons have been shipped through September, and trade sources indicated good prospects for continued strong sales and shipments through the upcoming main season harvest.
Importers:
Other Asia
Forecast 1997 imports by China were reduced this month by 250,000 tons to one million tons. A nearly 3 million ton (rough basis) increase in the 1996/97 crop forecast to a record 189 million tons is expected to limit import demand to only high quality and fragrant varieties not produced domestically. The crop increase is expected to primarily impact stock levels, now forecast at 22 million tons, but still more than 30 percent lower than the record high stock level achieved in 1984/85.
Other Africa
Calendar year 1996 import forecast for Kenya was increased 50,000 tons this month to 300,000 tons, based on heavy shipments to date. Following a revision in consumption expectations in 1996/97, 1997 imports were increased from 75,000 tons to 250,000 tons. Despite these increases, forecast consumption in Kenya is projected to decline in each year, down from the record set in 1994/95.
WORLD COARSE GRAINS SITUATION AND OUTLOOK
World trade in corn in 1996/97 is expected to fall somewhat from 1995/96 levels, primarily due to increased competition from feed quality wheat and other feed grains. The United States, beginning the year with extremely low stock levels, is nevertheless forecast to register a respectable export performance in 1996/97, though somewhat diminished from 1995/96 levels. China, once the world's second-largest exporter, and a net importer of nearly 1.5 million tons in 1995/96, is expected to have no net trade effect in 1996/97, as imports are projected to equal exports. U.S. export opportunities in Asia in 1996/97 are expected to remain good, as near-record import levels in the region are projected.
World trade in barley is expected to increase significantly in 1996/97. World stocks of barley, while projected to increase from 1995/96 levels, will still be below levels observed two years ago. Projected imports from the Middle East, particularly the largest feed barley importer, Saudi Arabia, is expected to rebound sharply, due to increased feed demand. Asia continues to be a significant growth market, primarily for malting barley, as their barley imports are projected to increase to record levels in 1996/97.
Importers
Mexico
The 1995/96 Mexican corn import estimate was raised 400,000 tons, to a record level of 6.4 million tons, largely owing to a shortfall in local production levels. Due to consumption levels outpacing production, the Mexican feed industry will grow even more reliant on U.S. corn imports. Over the next few years, it is expected that the majority of the growth in consumption for feed will come from imports--mainly the United States because of the NAFTA.
ENDNOTES TO GRAIN: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
REGIONAL TABLES
1) Includes Canada, Mexico, and the United States.
2) Includes Central America, the Caribbean, and South America.
3) Includes Azores, Cyprus, Iceland, Malta & Gozo, Norway, and Switzerland
4) Includes Albania, Bulgaria, Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and former Yugoslavia.
5) Includes Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, and Yemen.
6) Includes Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia.
7) Includes all other African countries except North Africa.
8) Includes Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.
9) Includes all other Asian countries except South Asia.
10) Includes Australia, Fiji, New Zealand, and Papua New Guinea.
OTHER NOTES
Unless otherwise stated, stock data are based on an aggregate of differing local marketing years and should not be construed as representing world stock levels at a fixed point in time.
Current and historical data on the European Union in this issue refers to the EU-15.
Consumption statistics reflect total utilization, including food, feed, seed, and differences in marketing year imports and marketing year exports.
This circular was prepared by the Grain and Feed Division, Commodity and Marketing Programs, Foreign Agricultural Service, USDA, Washington DC 20250. Information is gathered from official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign source materials, reports of U.S. agricultural attaches and Foreign Service officers, results of office research, and related information. Further information may be obtained by writing the division or telephoning (202) 720-6219.
Note: The previous report in this series was the Grain: World Markets and Trade Foreign Agricultural Service Circular FG 10-96 October 1996. For further details on the world grain production, see World Agricultural Production, Foreign Agricultural Service Circular WAP 11-96 November 1996.
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