"Putting the U.S. Cattle Industry First"  

This presentation was given at the Third Annual R-CALF USA Convention, January 24-26, 2002, in Billings, Montana.  Inquiries should be directed to Lee Schatz, Deputy Director of Analysis, Dairy, Livestock and Poultry Division on (202) 720-1350 or at schatz@fas.usda.gov 

Where We are Today in the Midst of a Changing World Trade Environment
	U.S. Agricultural Exports of $53 Billion Posted a Four Percent Gain in Fiscal Year 2001, Forecast to Return to Record Territory in 2004 Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry Exports Were a Record $ 12.6 Billion in FY 2001, a Six Percent Gain... Further Gains Unlikely in 2002 ...Record Livestock and Meat Exports Did Their Share to Drive Total Exports to Record Levels
U.S. Beef Supply and Demand Situation - A Need to Understand Where We Are Today...to Determine Where We Might Go From Here
	U.S. Beef Production is Coming Off a Cycle That Set a New Record in 2000..... ...However, That Record Production Did Not Translate into Record Domestic Use as it Had in the 1970's. Has Something Changed?... The U.S. Market Remains Split Between Demand for Domestic High Quality Beef and, Generally, Lower Quality Imports... ...Beef Imports Have Held a Position in the U.S. Market for an Extended Period -- There has Been Substantial Recent Expansion The Domestic Demand for High Quality Beef in the U.S. has Been Relatively Flat Through the Latter-1990's... ...However, U.S. Beef Production has Grown Beyond That Domestic Demand for High Quality Beef. Unbridled Optimism?... ...No, it's Expansion of High Quality Exports. The U.S. Cattle Industry is Now Producing for High Quality International Markets ...However, to Meet Total U.S. Beef Use and Exports, Lower Quality Imports Still Appear to Have a Role to Play in the U.S.... ...Values Received for U.S. Exports are Consistently Above Import Unit Values, but Narrowing... Unit Values for U.S. Beef Imports from Canada Probably Imply a Quality Shift, not the Case for Australia and New Zealand Beef... ...That Spells Trouble if Imported Beef Moves to More Directly Compete with U.S. Produced Beef We Remain a Net Beef Importer by Volume; But a Net Exporter by Value Given our Export Focus on Quality -- That Changed in 2001
U.S. Exports - A Decade of Gain Stalls
	Overall Growth Trend for Monthly Total U. S. Beef Exports Has Faltered Since the Beginning of 2000 Monthly Total U. S. Fresh/chilled Beef Exports Registered a Second Year of Minimal Export Growth in 2001 Consecutive, Annual Records for U.S. Fresh Beef Export Volumes Since 1994 May Have Ended in 2001... Blip? or Problem?... Through October 2001, U.S. Monthly Fresh Beef Exports Pace to our Top Markets Essentially Unchanged Year-to-Year After a Record of Gains, U.S. Fresh/Chilled Beef Exports Remain Concentrated... Any Problems = Major U.S. Industry Impact Monthly Total U.S. Frozen Beef Exports for Most of 2001 Slumped Sharply, Rebounded, But the Damage was Done... ...A 20-Percent Reduction in the Cumulative Monthly Pace of U.S. Frozen Beef Exports Through October... Blip? or Problem? Cumulative U.S. Monthly Frozen Beef Exports to Our Key Markets Tumble: Japan Weak All Year, Korea Weak in 2nd Quarter U.S. Frozen Beef Exports Even More Concentrated... Any Problems... Some New Expansion Japan: Each of Our Competitors for Frozen Beef Exports to Japan Made Inroads in 2001 at U.S. Expense Korea: Exports of Frozen Beef to Korea are Down Across U.S. and Top Two Competitors... All are Sharing the Pain
Key Import Markets
	Key Calendar Year 2000 Global Markets (1,000 tons) Japan's Monthly Total Frozen Beef Import Volumes Fluctuate Substantially, Growth Appears to Stagnate... ...Viewed on a Monthly Cumulative Basis, Japan Shows a Fourth No-growth Year for Frozen Beef Imports For Fresh/chilled Beef, Japan's Monthly Total Import Volumes are Relatively Steady, but Again, the Trend is Clear... ...The Fresh/chilled Beef Import Market in Japan Stalled (Peaked?) in the Mid-1990's Korea: Fresh Beef Imports Hold a Minor Position. Monthly Total Frozen Beef Import Volumes Climbing Out of Early-2001 Lows... ... But Cumulative Monthly Total Frozen Beef Imports are Still Off 28% From Last Year's Record Pace -- Potential Future of Growth
U.S. Beef Sector Options - Export Expansion Domestic Gains
	Export Expansion: U.S. Agriculture's Future in Global Markets Export Expansion: U.S. Agriculture's Future in Global Markets Domestic Gains: U.S. Agriculture's Future in the Domestic Market
Trade Agreements - NAFTA - Is the Playing Field Level? NO...But Who Thought Integration of the Three Trading Systems Would be Simple?
	At the Macro - Level Fiscal Year 2001 Was Another Record Year for U.S. Exports to NAFTA Partners... At the Macro Level - 2001 Was Another Record Year for U.S. Agricultural TRADE With NAFTA Partners... At the Specific Product Level - Beef Imports Growing, Cattle Imports Remain High  Beef... Steady Growth of Higher Unit Value - Beef Imports From Canada Cattle Imports in Fiscal Year 2001 Continue Strong, About a Million Head from Each NAFTA Partner
"There is Nothing Permanent Except Change" - Heraclitus
	By 2050, World Population Will Grow Nearly 75% to 9.8 Billion. Developing Countries Grow 80 Million Annually, Doubling by 2025

Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000