Total Broiler Meat Exports
Forecast to Decrease Marginally in 2004; Imports for Major Countries to Decline
World Trade: Total
broiler meat exports in 2004 for major exporting countries are forecast at 6
million tons, virtually unchanged from 2003 levels despite trade restrictions
due to Avian Influenza (AI) outbreaks. Three of the top five exporting countries, China, Thailand,
and the United States have experienced outbreaks of Avian Influenza in late 2003
and beginning 2004. While most
Asian countries have placed nationwide bans on imports from these three
suppliers, other countries have placed trade restrictions only on affected
regions. For 2004, broiler meat
imports for major countries are forecast at 3.8 million tons, a 13-percent
decrease from 2003 levels. The
decrease is largely due to China, Japan, and the European Union (EU),
restricting poultry imports due to AI and Russia setting restrictive poultry
meat quota levels for 2004. These four markets accounted for more than 62
percent of world total broiler meat imports by major importers in 2003.
States: Broiler meat
exports for 2004 are forecast at 2.25 million tons, a slight increase from
the record-high in 2003. Broiler
meat production in the United States is forecast to increase by nearly 4
percent in 2004 due to strong domestic demand coupled with expected export
for chicken leg quarters, the primary product exported by the United States
were almost twice as high at the beginning of 2004 than in 2003.
In 2003, broiler exports were up by 3 percent and the increase
growth was largely attributable in exports to small emerging markets
throughout the world. By
year-end 2003, broiler exports were up approximately 20 percent to the
Caribbean, 30 percent to Africa, and 44 percent to the Middle East. This trend is expected to continue into 2004.
Test results concerning the limited
outbreak of high-pathogenic AI (HPAI) in Texas showed that it is a less
virulent strain then seen in Asia and Canada.
After trade restrictions on U.S. poultry product are
regionalized, tight supplies among Asian importers are expected to provide
some opportunities for U.S. broiler exports to rebound in the Asia region.
Broiler meat exports for 2004 are forecast at 2.1 million tons, a 10
percent increase from 2003. Turkey
meat exports for 2004 are forecast at 125,000 tons, a 12-percent increase
from the 2003 estimate. The
increases in exports are attributed to reduced competition from major
exporting countries affected by AI. In
the absence of three major exporting countries in major Asian markets--
Thailand, China and the United States, Brazil is the best positioned and the
most competitive exporter of quality poultry cuts and mechanically de-boned
chicken meat. Additionally,
several new markets in Europe, Africa and the Middle East have opened to
Brazilian chicken, and the number of markets which Brazil has access to has
risen from 107 to 120 at the beginning of 2004.
Brazilian broiler production is expected to grow 6 percent in 2004 as
a result of strong demand in export markets as well as increased domestic
demand. In 2002, Russia
imported 283,000 tons of Brazilian broiler meat, however, in 2003, Brazilian
suppliers voiced dissatisfaction with Russia about not receiving a
country-specific quota allocation. Although
Russian officials have expressed openness to a proposal to allocate an
individual quota for Brazil, it would probably be subtracted from the
current “other country” quota allocation, and would not impact current
quota allocations. Under these
TRQ, it is expected Russia will import 110,000 tons less of broiler meat in
2004 than it did in 2003, and much of this decline is expected to impact
Brazilian exports. Nevertheless,
Brazilian export growth will be fueled by a growth in production.
However, a smaller corn crop due to dry weather could lend to
increased feed prices and possibly constrain poultry production growth.
Union: Broiler meat exports
for 2004 are forecast at 780,000 tons, a 7-percent increase from the 2003
estimate due largely to production recovery in the Netherlands.
EU exports declined in 2003 as the Netherlands suffered an outbreak
of AI. However, the impact from
last summer’s heat wave on the EU poultry production was less severe than
had earlier been anticipated. A
decrease in France’s production is expected because of sluggish demand,
both domestically and abroad, but increased production in Germany and the UK
will offset France’s decline. EU
broiler exports to the Middle East are expected to remain strong through
2004, supported by export refunds to the region.
Broiler meat exports for 2004 are forecast to decrease 43 percent to
300,000 tons due to the devastating effects of HPAI outbreaks on poultry
production and trade restrictions. In
2004, production is forecast down nearly 22 percent from 2003.
Thailand has culled an estimated 30 million birds in an effort to
contain HPAI outbreaks. These
losses, coupled with the loss of export markets, have translated to sizeable
economic shortfalls to producers. Historically, Thai broiler exports consisted mainly of
boneless parts, however, the Thai broiler industry has shifted focus in
recent years towards cooked and high-value processed products.
In 2003, almost 90 percent of Thailand’s broiler exports went to
three markets, 50 percent to Japan, 31 percent to the EU and 8 percent to
Korea. Thus, Thai exports are
greatly impacted by trade restrictions in Japan and the EU.
In Japan, Thai exporters will try to quickly meet the demand by
switching from uncooked to cooked product; as the Japanese have relaxed
trade restrictions and re-opened the market for “cooked” Thai chicken. Before the EU’s ban on imports from Thailand, Thailand
supplied primarily value-added parts to the EU. A portion of Thailand’s shipments to the EU is cooked
product, which the EU has not banned. It
is expected that Thailand will try to substitute cooked product to replace
some of the exports to the EU due to bans.
However, this lost substitution may depend upon EU consumer
preferences and competition with Brazilian product.
Broiler meat exports for 2004 are forecast to decrease by 20 percent
to 310, 000 tons. The decrease
is primarily attributed to the HPAI outbreaks.
The HPAI outbreaks in China are expected to limit any expansion in
broiler production in 2004. The
State Administration for Quality Supervision, Inspection, and Quarantine of
the People’s Republic of China (AQSIQ) is not issuing export quarantine
certificates from provinces affected by HPAI, which excludes about one third
of China’s provinces from exporting poultry products, including some of
the top producing and exporting provinces. About 41 countries have closed their markets to
China’s poultry products, including Japan, China’s top export
destination for frozen chicken cuts. In
2003, 56 percent of China’s broiler meat exports went to Japan.
China’s broiler meat exports include product of the U.S. that has
been processed or de-boned and re-exported as Chinese product.
Broiler meat imports in 2004 are forecast at 990,000 tons, a
10-percent decrease from 2003 due to quota restrictions.
Imports in 2003 remained strong, despite a pro-rated annual quota
amount of 744,000 tons, as restrictions did not enter into effect until May
2003. Heavy investment in the
domestic broiler industry will continue to expand production capacity and
increase efficiency through vertical integration, but these efforts will not
be able to meet expected demand for broiler meat in 2004.
Russia is expected to use its private stocks by the end of 2004 due
to strong domestic demand coupled with tight domestic supplies and quota
limits. Because of a tightening
of the overall supply situation, upward pressure on prices can be expected.
Prices remain significantly higher compared to the same period in
2003, primarily because of quota restrictions placed on poultry meat and
general price increases reflected in the world poultry markets due to the
trade implications of the Asia AI outbreaks. A new Russian government resolution allows importers to
transfer country-specific TRQ allocations to suppliers from other countries
in the event that product from a country with a TRQ is banned for
unfavorable epizootic conditions.
Broiler meat imports for 2004 are forecast at 520,000 tons, down 25
percent from the 2003 level due to import restrictions on major exporting
countries; namely Thailand, China, Indonesia, and the United States, because
of HPAI outbreaks. Imports from
Brazil are projected to significantly increase this year and partially fill
Japan’s strong food service demand. Japan’s
total consumption is projected 9 percent lower as supplies for non-AI
infected countries will be limited and as growing concerns about AI persist.
AI outbreaks in China and Thailand
compelled Japanese importers to diversify suppliers.
Recently, Japan and Thailand reached a new protocol agreement on
cooked product and Japan relaxed its ban to allow imports of cooked product
from Thailand. The United
States is pursuing a similar protocol to resume its cooked product exports
to Japan, which are currently banned. On
March 3, 2004, Japan confirmed an outbreak of HPAI. Assuming this outbreak is contained, Japanese production
is expected to recover by late 2004.
Union: Broiler meat imports
in 2004 are expected to decrease 17 percent from 2003 to 400,000 tons.
This is due to an increase in EU supplies, as a result of the
expected production recovery from AI in the Netherlands.
Overall EU imports for 2004 are also expected to reflect the full
closure of the loophole allowing salted poultry to enter Germany at a lower
duty. In August 2003, the EU
passed legislation that reclassified lightly salted poultry products to a
frozen tariff classification. This
change closed the loophole that allowed foreign suppliers shipping broiler
meat to pay half the tariff applied to frozen product.
The reduction in imports is expected to impact mainly imports from
Brazil and Thailand, who have historically supplied nearly 80 percent of
total EU broiler imports. Also,
bans on poultry meat imports from Thailand are likely to limit imports.
However, a portion of Thai exports into the EU is made up of cooked
chicken meat that will not be affected by the HPAI ban or the change in
tariff classification regarding salted poultry meat.
Broiler meat imports in 2004 are expected to decline 51 percent from
2003 imports to 220,000 tons, due to China’s strict quarantine and
sanitary requirements in response to the discovery of AI in the United
States. On February 27, 2004,
China suspended imports of U.S. poultry and poultry products.
Based on historical precedence, China is expected to regionalize its
bans, but the positive effects of this regionalization may be limited by
Japanese restrictions on U.S. product processed in China for re-export to
Arabia: Broiler meat
imports in 2004 are forecast to increase 1 percent to 395,000 tons due to
competitive prices compared to domestically produced products.
Heavy financial, technical and other assistance by the government
should facilitate a 2 percent expansion in production in 2004 through
lowered production costs. Currently,
the Kingdom relies on imports to satisfy about 41 percent of its total
domestic broiler meat consumption. With
an estimated 60 percent market share, Brazil remains the dominant supplier
of frozen chicken meat to the Kingdom, followed by the EU, Argentina, India
and the United States; Chinese broiler meat imports are banned from the
Broiler meat imports in 2004 are expected to decrease 4 percent from
the 2003 estimate, to 350,000 tons. A
nationwide ban on U.S. poultry was implemented by Mexico on February 23,
2004 because of an HPAI outbreak in Texas, but partially lifted three weeks
March 8, 2004, Mexico eased its AI ban on U.S. poultry products to
allow imports of de-boned poultry meat for further processing from 39 states
not affected by AI. A few days
later, the Government allowed imports of poultry meat into border areas.
This comes as great news to operators of large hypermarkets, such as
Soriana, H.E.B. and Wal-Mart super stores, and has boosted Mexico’s demand
for raw materials used in processed meat products.
Traders along the Mexican border (southern and northern), anticipate
no problems in filling the 101,000-ton import quota for leg quarters in
Last modified: Thursday, April 06, 2000