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World Broiler Overview
Total Broiler Meat Trade Forecast to Slow in 2003
World Trade: Total
broiler meat exports in 2003 for major exporting countries are forecast at 5.7
million tons, less than a 1 percent decrease from the 2002 level.
The decrease in exports is mainly attributed to restrictions in
Russia’s poultry imports. Russia,
the largest market for poultry products, announced an annual poultry import
quota of 1.05 million tons. The
pro-rated quota, equal to 744,000 tons, will be effective May 1, 2003, and will
be allocated by country. As a
result of the quota, world broiler meat imports for major countries will fall by
about 2 percent from the 2002 level, and competition in other markets among the
major exporting countries is expected to stiffen.
Key Exporters:
·
United States: Broiler
meat exports in 2003 are forecast at 2.3 million tons, a 7 percent increase from
the 2002 level. Broiler exports to
traditional markets in Asia and the Americas are expected to remain strong,
while exports to Russia, the largest market for U.S. broiler exports, will face
challenges due to a Russian quota on poultry imports effective May 1, 2003.
The Russian quota, if applied flexibly to both bone-in and boneless
poultry, would provide for access exceeding the level of average monthly
shipments in 2002. However, if the
quota breakout remains as Russia has announced, U.S. bone-in poultry exports to
Russia will be negatively affected. (See the Special Insert on Russia import
restriction.) Mexico’s
provisional safeguard on imports of leg quarters, thighs, and drumsticks for the
next 6 months is large enough to accommodate historical export levels, but will
reduce potential growth that was anticipated with the elimination of all NAFTA
duties and quotas in January. Mexico’s
provisional safeguard does not apply to imports of other poultry products.
·
Brazil: Broiler
meat exports in 2003 are forecast at 1.55 million tons, a 2 percent decrease
from the 2002 level. The decrease
in exports is mainly attributed to limited access to the Russian markets caused
by Russia’s introduction of a poultry import quota in 2003.
Brazil was allocated only 5 percent, or 33,300 tons, of the Russian
poultry import quota for the May-December period.
The allocated volume is 11 percent of what Brazil exported to Russia in
2002. Major importing countries’
sanitary concerns about Brazilian products will also challenge Brazil’s
exports in 2003.
·
European Union: Broiler
exports are forecast to be 720,000 tons in 2003, down 15 percent from 2002.
An outbreak of high pathogenic Avian Influenza in the Netherlands in
early 2003 will be the largest factor in reduced exports.
The Netherlands accounts for 29 percent of EU broiler exports to the
world. In addition, increased
competition from Brazil in Middle East markets will be a factor as well. The EU is the world’s third largest broiler exporter.
·
Thailand: Broiler
meat exports in 2003 are forecast at 480,000 tons, a 3 percent increase from the
2002 level. Thailand’s further
processed products exports to Japan and the EU are expected to remain strong, as
those products increase Thailand’s export value while minimizing importer’s
sanitary concerns. In 2002,
Thailand’s further processed cuts exports, mainly to Japan and the EU, grew
faster than the growth rate seen in fresh/frozen cuts exports.
Key Importers:
·
China: Broiler
meat imports in 2003 are forecast at 400,000 tons, an almost 9 percent decrease
from the 2002 level, as gains in production displace imports.
China’s broiler production series for 1987-2001 was revised upward to
include not only western breeds but also domestic breeds as production of
domestic breeds has reportedly grown to meet consumer tastes.
The western breeds are predominantly used for commercial meat production.
Domestic breeds, mainly yellow chicken, are multi-purpose, used for meat
and egg production. Inclusion of both breeds in the supply and distribution
balance sheet, more accurately measures broiler consumption in the country.
·
European Union: European
Union broiler imports in 2003 are projected to decline 5 percent from the
previous year to 390,000 tons. The EU made changes to tariff regulations on salted poultry
meat in 2002, which lead to reductions in imports from Brazil and Thailand.
Imports are expected to decline due to the tariff changes and shifts in
consumption. The EU is the
world’s fourth largest broiler importer.
·
Hong Kong: Broiler
meat imports for 2003 are forecast at 210,000 tons, nearly an 8 percent increase
from the 2002 level. Increased demand for chilled chicken from China is the key
factor for the gain. Hong Kong’s
imports from China grew to 38,000 tons in 2002, mainly whole birds, accounting
for nearly 20 percent of its total broiler imports.
·
Japan: Broiler
meat imports for 2003 are forecast at 760,000 tons, a 2 percent increase from
the 2002 level. Imports of further
processed product, mainly from China and Thailand, are expected to remain
strong, supported by strength in the ready-to-eat food market.
Japan’s safeguard on beef imports, once triggered, may stimulate
Japan’s broiler consumption.
·
Mexico: Broiler
meat imports in 2003 are expected to increase 4 percent from the revised 2002
import level to 275,000 tons, supported by the removal of tariff rate quotas (TRQs)
and tariffs on products except leg quarters, thighs, and drumsticks.
Leg quarters, thighs, and drumsticks are subject to a tariff-rate quota
under a provisional safeguard. All
other poultry products are imported duty free as NAFTA TRQ’s and tariffs were
eliminated on January 1, 2003. As a
result of a U.S.- Mexico bilateral agreement, Mexico introduced a provisional
safeguard measure that went into effect on January 23, 2003.
The provisional safeguard establishes a tariff-rate quota of 50,000 tons
at zero duty for 6 months (ending July 23, 2003). Additional imports of leg quarters, thighs, and drumsticks
during this period are subject to a 98.8 percent tariff. In the meantime, bilateral negotiations continue to develop
final safeguard provisions that should be published by July 2003.
·
Russia: In
2003, broiler imports are forecast at 1.125 million tons, down 7 percent from
the previous year. The quota does
not go into effect until May 1, 2003, allowing for unlimited imports between
January and April. In anticipation
of the impending quota, importers have been maximizing their imports keeping
private stocks filled to capacity. See Special Insert on Russia’s import restrictions for
details on the poultry quota. Russia
is the world’s largest broiler importer.
·
Saudi Arabia: Broiler
meat imports in 2003 are forecast to be 185,000 tons, down 1 percent from 2002.
The reduction in imports is attributed to increased domestic production
and sanitary concerns over antibiotics in Brazilian broiler meat.
Production is forecasted to increase 6 percent, outpacing consumption
growth. Brazil, Saudi Arabia’s
leading supplier of broiler meat, is currently facing scrutiny from the Saudi
government over a discovery of the antibiotic Nutrofuran in broiler meat.
NOTE
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