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World Trade: Total broiler meat exports in 2003 for major exporting countries are forecast to return to record levels at 5.6 million tons, a 4-percent increase from the 2002 estimate. The top 4 exporting countries, the United States, Brazil, the EU, and Thailand, are expected to dominate export markets due mainly to availability of supplies, price competitiveness, and for the EU, increased subsidies. For 2003, broiler meat imports for major countries are forecast at 4.5 million tons, a 2-percent increase from the 2002 estimate. China, the EU, Japan, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are expected to account for more than 80 percent of imports.
Key Exporter:
·
United States: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast at 2.47 million
tons, a 12-percent increase from the 2002 estimate, and approaching the 2001
record level. The expected increase
in exports is largely attributed to the recent agreement on export certification
with Russia, the largest market for U.S. poultry.
Gains in exports to key markets in Asia and the Americas are expected as
strong demand by the food service industry continues. In addition, Mexico’s scheduled elimination of tariffs and
tariff-rate quotas under NAFTA will likely improve opportunities for U.S.
broiler meat exports.
·
Brazil: Broiler
meat exports for 2003 are forecast at 1.3 million tons, a nearly 7-percent
decrease from the 2002 estimate. The
decrease in exports is mainly attributed to domestic and overseas market
developments. In spite of continued
gains in 2003, the rate of production growth is expected to be slower largely
because of the devaluation in Brazil’s currency and tight domestic corn
supplies, which have increased input costs.
Demand in the home market continues to strengthen as broiler meat is seen
as a low cost alternative to other meat protein sources.
Developments in Saudi Arabia and the EU, the two largest markets for
Brazilian broiler products, will likely impact Brazil’s broiler meat exports.
Saudi Arabia alleges excessive water content in Brazilian products, while
the EU has imposed a higher duty on frozen poultry product.
These two markets each accounted for 20 percent of Brazil’s total
broiler exports in 2001.
·
European Union: Broiler
meat exports for 2003 are forecast at 695,000 tons, nearly a 4-percent increase
from the 2002 estimate. The
increase in exports is attributed to greater access to Central and Eastern
European countries (CEECs: Poland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Romania,
Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) and larger export
refunds for other markets. EU
broiler meat exports will gain greater access to CEECs under the double-zero
agreement, which eliminates tariffs and prohibits the use of export refunds.
In 2001, about 14 percent of the EU’s total broiler meat exports were
destined to CEECs, compared to 10 percent in 2000.
Furthermore, increased export refunds on poultry for 2003 will improve
EU’s price competitiveness in the Middle East and Russia, key markets for
whole birds and parts, accounting for 40 percent of EU’s broiler exports in
2001. In its 2003 preliminary budget, the EU allocated 80 million
euros ($79 million), a 45-percent increase from 2002, for poultry export
restitutions. The EU is allowed to
subsidize up to 286,000 tons of poultry exports per year under its WTO
commitment.
· Thailand: Broiler meat exports for 2003 are forecast to increase 5 percent from the estimated 2002 level to 435,000 tons, due mainly to its competitive prices in Japan and the EU, the two largest markets for Thai broiler meat. Thailand supplies primarily value-added parts (semi-cooked and cooked products) to Japan, while it exports frozen parts to the EU. In response to the EU’s detection of a veterinary drug (nitrofuran) in frozen products in March 2002, Thailand banned the use of the drug and its derivatives in production, and continues to improve testing facilities.
Key
Importers:
·
China: Broiler
meat imports for 2003 are expected to decrease nearly 8 percent from the 2002
estimate to 350,000 tons, as an increase in production supports gains in
consumption. This forecast excludes
China’s imports of chicken paws/feet. Chicken
paws/feet imports were removed from the supply and distribution data series
(1997 to date) to more accurately measure the size of muscle meat demand.
China’s broiler meat and paw imports are attached to the China Country
Page. The page can be accessed at http://www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/countrypages/china.html.
·
European Union: Broiler
meat imports for 2003 are expected to increase 9 percent from the 2002 estimate
to 600,000 tons, due mainly to increased imports from Central and Eastern
European countries (CEECs) under double zero agreements, as well as from Brazil
and Thailand. Imports from CEECs
are expected to rise as trade becomes more liberalized.
In an effort to control poultry imports from Brazil and Thailand, the EU
Commission in June 2002 reclassified lightly salted poultry product from a
frozen salted product to simply a frozen product.
It argued that the product was primarily a frozen product before being
salted, thus allowing the EU to impose a higher duty.
Frozen poultry meat has a 30-percent duty, compared with a 15-percent
duty on salted poultry meat.
·
Japan: Broiler
meat imports for 2003 are forecast at 700,000 tons, down nearly 7 percent from
the 2002 level due mainly to rising stocks.
Stocks (mainly frozen broilers) in June 2002 were reportedly up 31
percent to 116,000 tons from the corresponding period last year.
However, imports of further processed products are expected to rise due
to strengthening demand in the retail and food service sectors and competitive
prices from Thailand and China.
·
Mexico: Broiler
meat imports in 2003 are expected to increase 14 percent from the revised 2002
import level to 290,000 tons supported by expansion in the food service
industry. Mexico’s NAFTA
commitment should also contribute to larger imports.
Effective January 2003, Mexico is committed to eliminating tariffs and
tariff-rate quotas on poultry, thereby providing greater opportunities for U.S.
broiler meat exports. The United
States is the largest supplier of broiler meat to Mexico.
·
Russia: Broiler
meat imports are expected to increase 7 percent from the revised 2002 level to a
new record at 1.3 million tons in 2003 due mainly to strong demand.
Rising production due to favorable grain harvests and increased
investment in the poultry sector supports consumption gains in the short-term.
Despite an extended trade dispute over certification of imports from the
United States, Russia’s broiler meat imports from the world for 2002 are
projected to reach 1.22 million tons, only 5 percent below the 2001 record level
as other countries have expanded exports to Russia.
· Saudi Arabia: Broiler meat imports in 2003 are forecast to decrease slightly to 385,000 tons as growth in production exceeds the forecast in consumption gains. Imports are expected to remain relatively constant due to competitive prices compared to domestically produced products.
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