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World
Trade: Total beef exports for
major exporting countries are forecast to increase 4 percent to a record 6
million tons in 2002, as most major competitors are forecast to increase
exports. United States beef exports
are forecast to decline further from record 2000 levels as competition stiffens
in the world market. For
additional analysis, data, and updated Country Pages, please refer to the USDA/FAS
Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry Division at www.fas.usda.gov/dlp/dlp.html
Key
Exporters:
·
United States: Beef exports are forecast
to reach just under 1 million tons in 2002, the lowest level since 1998.
Lower beef production in the United States is expected to boost prices in
2002, and these higher domestic prices and a strong dollar are expected to
hamper U.S. beef exports. U.S. beef is also bearing the brunt of reduced consumer
demand in Japan following the detection of three cases of Bovine Spongiform
Encephalopathy (BSE) in the fall of 2001. U.S.
beef exports to other major markets in North America and Asia are expected to
remain near record levels. The
United States is the world’s second largest beef exporter.
·
Argentina: Beef exports are forecast
up sharply at 230,000 tons in 2002 as the recovery from the foot-and-mouth
disease (FMD) outbreak is well underway. The
reopening of the European Union (EU) and some other major markets and the
devaluation of the Argentine Peso are driving the export recovery.
Argentina may be hard pressed, however, to fully regain major markets
such as Chile, Israel, and the EU, where Brazil made big gains in 2001 at
Argentina’s expense. Argentina is
the world’s eighth largest beef exporter.
·
Australia: Beef exports are forecast
to reach a record of just over 1.4 million tons in 2002 as production grows and
market presence in Canada, Korea and Mexico expands. Australia in 2001 displaced the United States as Japan’s
number one beef supplier. Australia
filled its U.S. import quota in 2001, and is expected to do so again in 2002.
Australia is the world’s largest beef exporter.
·
Brazil:
Beef exports are forecast at a record
800,000 tons in 2002, building on a string of records.
In 2001, Brazil made significant inroads into a range of markets,
including Egypt, Iran, and Saudi Arabia. Aggressive
marketing campaigns in the EU touting Brazilian beef as natural and grass-fed,
and new beef trading agreements with Russia, should help Brazil expand its beef
exports in 2002. However,
Argentina’s return to world beef markets will increase competition. Brazil
is the world’s third largest beef exporter.
·
Canada:
Beef exports in 2002 are forecast to rise for the eleventh straight year
to a record 580,000 tons, with the United States and Mexico remaining the main
markets for Canadian beef. Over 80
percent of Canada’s beef exports go to the United States, but Canada has
become important in other beef markets such as Mexico, where Canada has
increased its market share from less than 1 percent in 1997 to 19 percent in
2001. Canada is the world’s fifth
largest beef exporter.
·
European Union: Beef exports are
forecast to rebound by 20 percent from low 2001 volumes to 638,000 tons in 2002,
as previously key markets such as Egypt and Russia reopen after being closed due
to BSE and FMD concerns. EU beef
exports to Russia are expected to strongly recover in 2002 as Russia has
rescinded its import bans vis-à-vis FMD and maintains a highly regionalized
import ban with respect to BSE. The
European Union is the world’s fourth largest beef exporter.
Key
Importers:
·
United States: Total U.S. beef imports
are forecast to reach 1.47 million tons in 2002, up nearly 3 percent from the
record 1.43 million tons imported in 2001.
Total imports of beef from all major suppliers, including Canada,
Australia, and New Zealand, are expected to remain at record levels.
The United States is the world’s largest beef importer.
·
Canada:
Beef imports for 2002 are projected at a record level of 320,000 tons.
The United States continues to dominate the stagnating fresh/chilled
segment of the import market. Canada’s
frozen beef imports have shown substantial growth, all captured by major
competitors, such as Australia, New Zealand, and Uruguay.
Canada is the world’s seventh largest beef importer.
·
European Union: Beef imports in
2002 are forecast to rise by 14 percent to 467,000 tons as beef consumption
recovers and imports resume from traditional suppliers in South America that had
been suspended due to FMD outbreaks. The
European Union is the world’s fourth largest beef importer.
·
Japan:
Beef imports for 2002 are forecast to fall for a second year with imports
slipping from 955,000 tons in 2001 to 880,000 tons in 2002, the lowest level
since 1994. The detection of BSE in
domestic dairy herds in the fall of 2001 and poor consumer confidence in
Japanese governmental programs and industry actions taken to address the problem
are reducing demand for both domestically produced and imported beef.
Japan is the number one U.S. beef export market, and the world’s second
largest beef importer.
·
Korea:
Beef imports for 2002 are forecast to reach a record 340,000 tons, far
above the reduced 246,000 tons imported in 2001.
The recovery of the Korean economy and the strengthening of the Korean
Won, coupled with the removal of major barriers to trade in beef products in
2001, are the leading factors in this import recovery.
Korea is the third most important U.S. beef export market and the
world’s sixth largest beef importer.
·
Mexico:
The 2002 beef imports are forecast at a record level of 430,000 tons with
the United States expected to capture the majority of the market.
A growing middle-income population demanding more meat protein and a
flourishing hotel and restaurant industry account for the continued growth in
the meat sector. Mexico is the
United States’ second largest export market for beef and the world’s fifth
largest beef importer.
· Russia: Beef imports for 2002 are forecast to increase to 750,000 tons, well above the estimated 675,000 tons imported in 2001. Much of the increase is expected to come from the EU. Russia is the world’s third largest beef importer.
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