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Pork Export Overview
Total Pork Exports Forecast at Record Level for 2002; U.S. Market Share Slips
Total pork exports for selected countries of the world in 2002 are forecast at a record 3.8 million tons, up 7 percent from the previous year. Pork exports are forecast higher for the EU, Brazil, Poland, and Canada. The United States’ pork exports are forecast to decline from the record level achieved in 2001 as competition stiffens in the world market.
For 2002, U.S. pork exports are forecast at 649,000 tons, down 7 percent from the previous year’s record level. U.S. pork exports are facing increasing competition in the major markets of Japan, Mexico, and Russia. For example, Brazil is making strides into the Russian pork market, while the EU is regaining some of the markets that were temporarily closed to EU pork products due to FMD. U.S. Hog slaughter is forecast to approach 97.5 million head and with heavier weights, pork production is expected to climb to 8.7 million tons. Increases in stocks and consumption will offset the decrease in pork exports.
For 2002, EU pork exports are forecast at 1.3 million tons, up 8 percent from the previous year, but down from the 1999 record level. The EU is expected to rebound from the level in 2001 when nearly three-quarters of its third country pork markets were temporarily blocked due to FMD concerns. Hog and pork production are forecast to expand as producers take advantage of higher prices. Consumption within the EU is also forecast to grow as consumers shift more toward pork because of BSE concerns.
For 2002, Canada’s pork exports are forecast at another record level at 730,000 tons. Canada has been steadily increasing its market presence in Mexico, Japan, and Russia at the expense of U.S. suppliers. However, the United States is still home to more than 60 percent of Canada’s pork exports. Canada is forecast to continue expanding its hog industry and is expected to ship 5.3 million head next to the United States, about half of will be for finishing
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