Swine and Pork
Total pork production for 2001 is forecast at a record 84.3 million tons as major producing countries continue their upward trend. Total pork exports in 2001 are forecast 5 percent lower than 2000 due mainly to a decrease in EUs exports as EU consumers increase pork consumption as a result of the BSE situation. U.S. pork exports are up 3 percent from 2000 due to continued strong import demand from Mexico and Japan.
Note: These projections are based on the Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) and Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) situation as of March 21. All volumes in the following article and in the pork tables are in carcass weight equivalent.
The 2001 pork production for selected countries is forecast at a record 84.3 million tons, up 1.9 million tons or 2 percent from last year. Gains in the United States, Canada, Brazil, and China more than offset declines in the EU and Poland. EUs pork production for 2001 is forecast slightly lower than last year as environmental concerns along with FMD implications restrict expansion.
Total pork consumption for 2001 is forecast at a record 83.9 million tons, up 3 percent from 2000. The EU consumption is projected to increase as consumers substitute pork for beef due to BSE. Mexico, Japan, and Korea are also expected to increase their demand for pork. The United States and Canadian consumption is likely to be higher.
For 2001, total pork exports are projected at 3.1 million tons, a 5-percent decrease from 2000 due mainly to reduced exports from the EU and Poland. EU exports are expected to fall due to increased domestic consumption. However, pork exports for the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Australia are forecast higher than last year due, in part, to increased production.
U.S. pork exports for 2001 are expected to be a record 612,000 tons, up 3 percent from a year ago due to an increase in production, strong demand in major markets, and additional opportunities resulting from developments in the EU (combined BSE and FMD). The United States is expecting record pork production this year at 8.8 million tons, a 2-percent growth from 2000 as farrowings increase and pigs per litter continue to rise. Strong hog and pork prices combined with low feed costs are providing producers incentives to increase production.
Developments in the EU may provide an additional opportunity for U.S. pork exports to third countries as increased pork demand in the EU will likely limit the availability of pork for export. The BSE situation will likely increase EU pork consumption as consumers switch to alternative meats. As increased amounts of pork are consumed domestically, the 2001 EU export level is down 213,000 tons from the previous year. FMD that started in the UK in late February has now spread onto mainland Europe. Many countries, including the United States, have imposed a temporary ban on imports of meats and live animals from the EU.
Canadas 2001 pork exports are forecast at a record 805,000 tons, nearly 7 percent higher than 2000. Canadian pork exports to the United States will likely be higher than last year as supplies of Canadian pork increase and the EU tries to maintain its market share in Asia at the expense of its U.S. markets.
Total 2001 pork imports for selected countries are forecast at a record 2.9 million tons, up 3 percent from last year. An increase in imports by the United States, Mexico, and Japan will more than offset a decline in Koreas imports.
Mexicos pork imports for 2001 are forecast at 185,000 tons, up 23 percent from the previous year as the countrys improved economy provides consumers more disposable income, creating additional demand for pork. In addition, pork products from the United States will face a more liberal tariff-rate quota as tariffs decrease to 4 percent and the quota increases by 3 percent under NAFTA. However, Mexicos antidumping duties are still levied on live hogs, thereby constraining U.S. hog exports to Mexico.
Japans pork imports in 2001 are forecast at 955,000 tons, up 3 percent from 2000. Despite its lagging economy, Japan, the worlds largest pork importing country, continues to demonstrate strong demand for pork as imported pork products are becoming more competitive against domestically produced products. A slowing economy is also benefitting pork consumption as consumers are likely to shift to less-expensive products to satisfy their meat demand.
Russias pork imports for 2001 are forecast at 350,000 tons as an anticipated increase in beef supplies from the EU will likely pressure pork demand. Russias 2000 pork imports were 350,000 tons based on current trade statistics.
Koreas pork imports in 2000 totaled 174,000 tons, a 12-percent increase from the pre-FMD level in 1999, despite concerns that Koreas imports would decrease due to oversupply. However, large pork stocks which accumulated due to FMD last year will likely be worked down and depress import demand relative to 2000. Pork imports for 2001 are forecast at 100,000 tons, as the country will likely depend on imports of popular pork cuts (pork belly) to satisfy high demand in the domestic market.